The Struggle Over Ocalan's Message: Disarmament of PKK or Surrender Without Concessions?

In front of hundreds of journalists, media personnel, and Kurdish mothers seeking justice, a seven-member delegation from the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), which had been working for 'peace' in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria for months, read a message from Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The message stated that the group should dissolve and lay down its arms. However, in Diyarbakir, the most political city in Turkey's Kurdish region, the police did not allow the ceremony to be broadcast, and the thousands gathered in Salahuddin Square could only hear the message. Some view this behavior as a symbol of the potential fate of this process: surrender without any achievements. Ocalan emphasized in his message that the final decision for dissolution and disarmament must be made at a congress by the PKK, a matter that may never reach a conclusion. While many Kurdish factions still consider the 76-year-old man their leader, they do not share a uniform interpretation of the current situation. Sinem Abdullah, a representative of the Democratic Syrian Council (MSD) in the U.S., regarded the message as 'a sign of peace' and believes that this development will affect not only Turkey but the entire region, including Rojava. However, many observers are not optimistic and believe that there are factions both within the government and among the Kurds that make achieving peace more difficult. Political reactions to Ocalan's message: Hope for peace or continued distrust? In the 1970s, when the 'Kurdish issue' was not yet a topic in Turkish political discourse, Ocalan stated during student discussions at Istanbul University that the place for discussing Kurds was not in classrooms but in the southeast and with weapons; a process that he and PKK members began with the first bullet on August 15, 1984, which has since claimed at least 100,000 lives. Now, the nationalist 'Good' Party in Turkey has stated following Ocalan's message that 'we will neither forget the martyrs nor allow them to be forgotten.' This position could complicate the path ahead for democracy in Turkey. The political atmosphere in Turkey regarding this development is filled with skepticism. Ozgur Ozal, the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), has described Ocalan's message as a step towards democracy and emphasized that the solution to the Kurdish issue can only be achieved through a participatory process in parliament with the involvement of all parties and civil society. He simultaneously accused Erdogan's government of a lack of transparency and secretive policies, citing the removal of elected mayors as an example of this approach. Analysts close to the Republican People's Party also believe that Erdogan lacks the will to resolve the issue and is seeking to exploit the situation. They argue that Erdogan needs constitutional reform to bypass presidential limitations and run in the 2028 elections. Emre Peker, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, believes that Erdogan will likely leverage Ocalan's message to gain support from Kurdish parties, including the DEM, to pass the changes he desires. Leftist groups in Turkey have welcomed Ocalan's message but expressed concern about the government's approach. The Turkish Communist Party (TKP) views this message as a means to end ethnic conflicts but warns that Erdogan's expansionist policies will have negative consequences. The Labor Party (TİP), which has the slogan 'No to war, imperialism, and tyranny,' emphasizes that a sustainable solution can only be achieved through the struggle for freedom, equality, and democracy. The Labor Party (EMEP) also considers Ocalan's message a turning point in peacefully resolving the Kurdish issue and calls for structural reforms, an end to the appointment of trustees in municipalities, the release of political prisoners, and education in the mother tongue. Bulent Arinc, a founding member of the Justice and Development Party and former Speaker of the Turkish Parliament, considers Ocalan's message to lack new points and believes its realization depends on the PKK's decision, not Ocalan's. He argues that there is no basis for negotiating Kurdish rights, education in the mother tongue, or potential amnesty, and expecting significant changes in the near future is futile. However, figures like Dogu Perincek, leader of the Patriotic Party (VP), view Ocalan's message as a sign of the PKK's military defeat. According to him, the Turkish army has destroyed the PKK, and Ocalan has accepted this reality. Perincek claims that Ocalan has even abandoned ideas of independence, federalism, and autonomy, indicating the complete collapse of the PKK. He also believes that this message encompasses the PKK's branches in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and if implemented, it would deliver a serious blow to U.S. and Israeli plans in the region, as the PKK would no longer exist as 'America's ground force.' The Kurdish issue and the difficult path to democracy: The PKK was established in 1978 when Ocalan was able to find like-minded individuals. The group operated with a Marxist-Leninist background but primarily focused on the discriminatory conditions against Kurds in Turkey. They protested against the political marginalization of Kurds, the neglect of their identity, and the underdevelopment of Kurdish regions. Although the Kurdish issue was politically central to this party, over time, armed struggle became the party's main approach. Ocalan, while stating that the path to liberation for all passes through politics and democracy, has been interpreted by some, including political commentator Kemal Can, as no longer emphasizing the Kurdish issue in his message, which has raised concerns among some. In contrast, the ruling party in Turkey seems to have a more radical interpretation. Mehmet Ucum, Erdogan's senior legal policy advisor, has described Ocalan's message as confirmation of the government's positions and aligned it with Erdogan's declared policies. He insists that 'the Kurdish issue is resolved,' and there is no longer a matter of denial or discrimination, thus sidelining demands such as 'two nations, two official languages, dual citizenship, autonomy, or federalism.' Ucum presents this message as the end of separatist projects that he claims have been imposed on Turkey from abroad and emphasizes that anyone who does not comply with this call must accept the consequences. However, many Kurdish analysts believe this marks the beginning of a difficult road in Turkey. They argue that although Ocalan has proposed a democratic path to improve the situation of Kurds, this path, according to Nuray Sanjar, 'is at odds with the political reality of the country' as the government continues its repressive policies simultaneously with this message. Peace or tension? The struggle over Ocalan's message: Some in Turkey believe this message will enhance Turkey's regional power. Huseyin Shihanlioglu, a university professor, compares it to the historical role of Idris Bedlisi, who encouraged Kurds to unite with the Ottoman Empire and created 300 years of relative stability. He states that this process could weaken Western projects like 'Greater Israel' and position Turkey as a hub for regional developments. Those with an optimistic interpretation believe that Turkey holds a stronger hand in regional developments, and existing threats may prompt the government to moderate its approaches in this regard. At the same time, some analysts close to the government are concerned that the Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq could become Achilles' heels for Erdogan's regional plans, as the government will have to invest heavily in them, and various development projects like the 'Development Road,' which connects Iraq's Faw port to Turkey and passes through Iraqi Kurdistan, may be delayed. However, Kurds, especially in northern Syria, are distrustful of the Turkish government. They, who are mainly supported by the U.S. and Israel, view Ocalan's message as serving Turkey's interests. Mazlum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), described Ocalan's message as peaceful and emphasized that it is directed specifically at the PKK and does not include the forces under his command. He believes that if this process succeeds, democracy in Turkey will be strengthened and have a positive impact on northern and eastern Syria. Abdi states that Turkey has always used the PKK's presence as a pretext for attacking Kurdish-controlled areas, and if the peace process advances, this pretext will disappear. Meanwhile, the Turkish government considers this group part of the PKK. Ocalan's message, without preconditions for disarmament, has placed Turkey at a crossroads of democracy or a return to violence. The disagreements among political parties, the Kurds' distrust of Ankara, and regional tensions have made the future of this process uncertain; while some see it as an opportunity for peace, others perceive it as a political tool. If obstacles such as nationalist opposition, government security pressures, and lack of cooperation among all PKK branches are not resolved, this process may lead Turkey into new tensions rather than resolving the Kurdish crisis.