The Sunset of the JCPOA; Europe Calls for 'Maintaining Iran's Ballistic Missile Sanctions'

Reuters reported that European diplomats have informed the Islamic Republic that they are determined to maintain the European Union's 'ballistic missile sanctions,' which were set to expire in October. According to this news agency, Europe intends to prevent the production of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems by the Islamic Republic by 'maintaining sanctions,' despite the collapse of the nuclear agreement from which the United States withdrew in 2018. The report indicates that although the initial agreement limited the Islamic Republic's nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions, since the U.S. withdrawal and the failure to revive it during Joe Biden's presidency, Iran's ability to produce fissile material for a nuclear bomb has 'significantly' increased. Experts believe that this European decision is made due to 'concerns about Russia's use of Iranian drones against Ukraine,' 'the possibility of ballistic missiles being transferred from Iran to Russia,' and 'Iran's violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement.' Additionally, the cooling of relations between Iran and the West over the past year raises concerns for the West, as Iran's nuclear ambitions are seen as a threat to Israel and Gulf Arab oil-exporting countries. Although the Islamic Republic denies seeking nuclear weapons, the possibility of a retaliatory response from Iran to the EU's decision to maintain sanctions remains a concern for Europe. In fact, these sanctions prohibit the Islamic Republic from 'developing ballistic missiles' capable of carrying nuclear weapons and also ban the purchase, sale, or transfer of drones and related parts without a United Nations Security Council permit. Clearly, the goal of the European Union is to de-escalate tensions and find a way to revive nuclear restrictions, but the Islamic Republic's refusal to discuss this issue and its advancement of its nuclear and missile programs—despite previous Western sanctions—indicates a lack of trust. While maintaining sanctions requires the approval of all 27 EU member states, the decision not to implement the 'immediate return' clause—which reinstates all previously lifted sanctions—is a threat that was previously reflected in a letter to the Islamic Republic last year. This letter 'warned' that if Iran enriches uranium to weapons-grade levels, 'immediate return' will be triggered. Although the EU's decision to maintain sanctions does not replace UN provisions, it reflects the reality that the 2015 nuclear agreement no longer exists in its original form. Previously, a Republican member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee reacted to the sanctions against individuals and entities related to the Islamic Republic's missile program with a tweet. Senator Jim Risch, recalling that the bans on Iran's ballistic missiles will expire in October of this year, stated, 'We are approaching another dangerous sunset of the JCPOA.' He added regarding the new sanctions, 'While today's sanctions are considered a start, the Biden administration is stuck and has failed to present a broader strategy regarding Iran.' It is noteworthy that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on Wednesday that there is no new nuclear agreement on the table with Iran. Blinken, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said, 'While we still seek to find diplomatic pathways, there is no agreement in sight.' Regarding future U.S.-Iran relations, he stated that Washington will judge the Islamic Republic based on its actions. He urged the Islamic Republic not to take actions that 'would further escalate tensions.'