The Survival of Ahmadinejad-Mashaei with the Candidacy of Baghai

Emphasizing the prayer that Ahmadinejad recites at the beginning of each speech - "O Allah, hasten the reappearance of your representative and grant him health and victory" - Hamid Baghai, one of his associates, announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections. This move by the well-known and controversial figure from the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction comes as he stated, "This candidacy announcement is completely independent of individuals, groups, parties, and political factions." A claim that is hard to accept. A few days prior to this announcement, Ahmadinejad had also issued an unexpected statement, rejecting some rumors about his support for a "specific candidate" in next year's elections, emphasizing that "I have not supported and will not support any individual, faction, party, or group. This is my definitive and unchangeable position." Ahmadinejad's stance at the beginning of this plan raised surprise and questions; who was supposed to be the candidate? However, now, with Baghai's announcement, the political game of Ahmadinejad-Mashaei and even the meaning of the former president's statement becomes clear. It is unlikely that anyone from the core of power in the Islamic Republic, as well as political players and observers, would believe the written emphases of Ahmadinejad and Baghai. Baghai's candidacy is not separate from political coordination within the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei group and is not a coordinated action of a group to advance a common project. Ahmadinejad's reaction to the "recommendation" of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic came last month after a new wave of political and media activity by Ahmadinejad, and the emergence of rumors about the first person's opposition to his candidacy in the presidential elections. Suddenly, the Supreme Leader explicitly announced his position on this matter. The head of the political system, without mentioning Ahmadinejad's name, said: "A person came to me, and I, considering the interests of that person and the country, told him not to participate in this matter... If you enter this issue, it will create a dichotomy in the country. A dichotomy in the country is harmful to the country." Ahmadinejad quickly reacted to this official position of the system's leadership and, in an open letter, expressed his "obedience" to the "recommendation" of Ayatollah Khamenei, stating: "In accordance with the wishes of the great leader of the revolution, I have no plans to participate in the electoral competition next year." Despite this, the controversial president, who at least from the second half of his second term had shown enough "deviation" and rebellion against the wishes and projects of the first person of the system (including the famous incident of his 11-day house arrest in April 2011), did not withdraw from travel and speeches after the aforementioned letter. Moreover, now Ahmadinejad, who ostensibly has withdrawn from participating in the elections, has reactivated with one of his main associates in the political scene related to the elections. Baghai's candidacy has been highlighted by the media arms of the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction; to the extent that, for example, Abdolreza Davari compared the relationship between Baghai and Ahmadinejad to that of Dr. Fatemi and Dr. Mossadegh or placed him alongside Nelson Mandela for his "resistance" during his seven-month detention. Who is Baghai? Hamid Baghai, 47, with a background in cooperation with the Ministry of Intelligence, the state broadcasting organization, and the Ministry of Interior, was the head of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei's office in the cultural-artistic organization of Tehran Municipality during Ahmadinejad's tenure as mayor of the capital. His long-standing collaboration with Mashaei later led to Baghai working as Mashaei's deputy in the Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization after Ahmadinejad's presidency. Subsequently, during Ahmadinejad's second government, Baghai headed the aforementioned organization and left behind a controversial record. He also held the position of secretary of the Supreme Council of Free and Special Economic Zones. From the middle of Ahmadinejad's second term, Baghai took over the presidency instead of Mashaei, who had fallen out of favor with the first person of the system. Additionally, he worked as Ahmadinejad's executive deputy. All these positions indicate Baghai's special relations with Mashaei and Ahmadinejad, and their trust in him. Baghai was elevated in Ahmadinejad's government while the Administrative Justice Court banned him from any government work for four years due to "certain violations"; a ruling that was later annulled and its execution was nullified. In June 2015, Baghai became the second prominent figure of Ahmadinejad's government, after Mohammad Reza Rahimi (Ahmadinejad's first deputy), to be imprisoned. His arrest warrant was issued in December of that year while his charges did not find a place in the media and remain unclear. With such a record and background, Baghai has now announced his candidacy for the presidential elections. Is this a restoration of individual dignity or a political game by a faction? Baghai, supported by Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, has entered the election scene; this candidacy announcement is so significant for the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei political faction that even the silent Mashaei has been compelled to make a meaningful statement: "Perhaps for some gentlemen, Baghai's candidacy is a joke, just as Ahmadinejad's candidacy in 2005 was a joke!" From this perspective, it is difficult to consider Baghai's candidacy as an individual action aimed at restoring a tarnished image after last year's arrest or restoring individual dignity. Despite Ahmadinejad's "public" denial, he plays an important role in the "unofficial" game and project of a political group. The notable activity and significant political project of the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction occur in the context of the "prohibition and public recommendation" from the top of the political system to Ahmadinejad to refrain from candidacy in the upcoming presidential elections. Ahmadinejad, Mashaei, and their associates are pursuing their political-ideological aspirations and visions. Simultaneously, with significant emphasis on the "Imam of the Time" and promoting the importance of readiness for the "time of appearance," they claim a kind of Iranian identity; they speak of Cyrus and even mention Mossadegh, who has been sidelined in official propaganda in the Islamic Republic, with attention and praise. All this is independent of their prominent emphasis on justice, poverty, and related concepts. This emphasis is intertwined with populism and numerous bold promises. The ideological persistence in political action Ahmadinejad, Mashaei, and their associates do not intend to withdraw from political action. Regardless of what pertains to their fundamental rights and citizenship, the reality shows their determination and persistence to pursue their political and ideological programs. Baghai's candidacy makes this determination palpable; whether Baghai's qualifications are approved or rejected by the Guardian Council, it does not affect the aspirations of the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction. They seek to promote their views; if Mashaei has become a security-sensitive figure for the core of power and cannot effectively mobilize and promote socially; and if Ahmadinejad is prohibited by the first person of the system from campaigning and candidacy for the elections, they have sent another figure into the field: Baghai. The Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction knows that with the backing of the favorable memories of a segment of society from his extravagant presidency - relying on astronomical oil revenues of several hundred billion dollars - they can present themselves at a critical juncture and engage a layer of society with them to pursue their aspirations. They are critical of Rouhani's government on one hand; on the other hand, they have delineated themselves from traditional conservatives; they do not pay much attention to the traditional clerical authority and political clerics aligned with the central power; and on the other hand, they do not have a good relationship with reformists, greens, and the opposition to the government. The Ahmadinejad-Mashaei faction considers themselves a "force" different from other political players and effective social forces in today's Iran. It seems that they feel ideologically obligated to use the election opportunity for maximum promotion and political success - in the short, medium, and even long term. The official or unofficial candidacy announcements of some other close associates of Ahmadinejad-Mashaei for the upcoming elections (including Rostam Qasemi, former oil minister; Hamid Reza Haj Babai, former education minister; and Masoud Zaribafan, former head of the Martyrs Foundation and Ahmadinejad's deputy) further confirms this assessment. The saga of Ahmadinejad-Mashaei continues, and Baghai's candidacy is merely a testament to that.