The Survival of Netanyahu's Government and Three Options Ahead

On a day that Israeli media described as 'dramatic' for the Prime Minister and his government, Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to save his government from collapse following last week's resignation of Avigdor Lieberman from the Ministry of Defense. Lieberman resigned in protest against the ceasefire with armed Palestinian groups in Gaza, and his secular right-wing party, 'Israel Beiteinu', also exited the government coalition. According to Israeli media, while the leader of the religious right-wing party 'Jewish Home' conditioned the party's continued presence in the government coalition on giving the Ministry of Defense to its leader, Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu stated in his cabinet meeting that 'in this critical period, we must prevent the government from falling.' Israeli elections are scheduled for their original date in November 2019. However, maintaining a government supported by only 61 representatives out of 120 members of the Knesset is not an easy task. Netanyahu and his government are currently faced with three options: The easiest option: Netanyahu could eventually convince Bennett and other allied party leaders to stay with him during this period while also taking control of the Ministry of Defense. Netanyahu currently holds the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Health, and notably, the Foreign Ministry has been without a minister for four years. If this low-cost option is realized, all of Netanyahu's goals will be achieved: he will appear more as a defender of security objectives and national interests; he will demonstrate that leaders of other parties do not have the real capability to stand up to him; and by holding elections at their regular time next year, he will free himself from the relatively unpleasant image created during the recent Gaza crisis regarding his management, while simultaneously gaining more time to escape the consequences of the corruption charges against him. The difficult option for Netanyahu: If he gives the Ministry of Defense to Naftali Bennett and argues, according to his advisors, that the Prime Minister ultimately has the final say in major decisions of the Ministry of Defense, he will face both benefits and drawbacks. The major benefit of this option is the preservation of the current government; the 'Jewish Home' party led by Bennett has 8 parliamentary seats, and keeping this party in the government coalition ensures that there are still 61 Knesset representatives supporting the government. History in Israel has shown that a government, even with a shaky majority, can continue to survive. It is worth noting that Netanyahu's government has had the support of these same 61 representatives since it was formed in the spring of 2015, and it was only in the summer of 2016 that Lieberman's party joined the government coalition, increasing the support from 61 to 67. With government stability in this option, the term of the new police chief will also begin; Netanyahu's 40-year political career may depend on the cases being handled by the anti-corruption unit in the Israeli police. The police previously recommended to the prosecutor's office to issue an indictment in two cases against Netanyahu, but the prosecutor has not yet complied with this request. On the other hand, giving the Ministry of Defense to Naftali Bennett has the drawback for Netanyahu that he would be enabling Bennett's years of efforts to rise to higher positions in the Israeli political sphere, and this politician, who clearly aspires to the premiership and has been a defender of Jewish settlements, could also portray himself to Israeli voters as a defender of security in the position of Minister of Defense. Even if Netanyahu argues that despite giving the Ministry of Defense to Bennett, he remains the main decision-maker, it would still damage his and Likud's image in the eyes of right-wing voters. The third and most difficult option for Netanyahu: If Bennett and Moshe Kahlon, the leader of the 'Kulanu' party who is the Minister of Finance, insist on holding early elections, Netanyahu will have no choice but to agree. However, in any subsequent election, based on all polls, the likelihood that Netanyahu remains Prime Minister is very high. For Netanyahu, Iran remains at the top of his target list: whether the election date is near or at its original time next November, he continues to see Iran as a target. Netanyahu does not hide that everything in the region and the world, and even within Israel, materializes for him in connection with Iran. Last week, he stated that if he agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas against Lieberman's wishes, it was only 'because there are secrets that he cannot share with the people.' An hour before Lieberman's resignation, Netanyahu visited the grave of David Ben-Gurion and compared himself to Ben-Gurion in preserving 'the country's security secrets.' Perhaps understanding his point was not too difficult; he organizes all his policies around 'confronting the dangers of Iran.' According to Israeli media, Netanyahu will strive to highlight Israel's relations with the Arab world, which were recently materialized by his historic visit to Oman and even the possibility of his upcoming trip to Bahrain, to tell the Israeli people that he has paved the way for open relations with the Arab world. In his recent speeches, he emphasizes that alongside ensuring economic prosperity and significantly improving the country's economic and social indicators, he is the leader who made the U.S. recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital after 70 years and moved its embassy to Jerusalem, and he is the leader who 'convinced the U.S. to neutralize the nuclear deal with Iran.' Israel cannot 'tolerate' the transformation of Hamas's rocket capabilities into Hezbollah's missile arsenal: Hamas leaders have considered Lieberman's resignation as a 'success' due to the military crisis last week, although an Israeli Air Force commander stated that during the two days of this crisis, Israel deliberately showed such a strong military response that it resorted to methods less used even in the military operations four years ago, including completely destroying ten modern high-rise buildings in Gaza. Israeli military and political officials have stated that political developments in their country have no connection to the army's future actions against armed Palestinian organizations in Gaza and that 'Hamas's attempt to become the second Hezbollah will not be tolerated.' Yahya Sinwar, the internal leader of Hamas, stated on Friday that Hamas's rocket capabilities have been significantly strengthened and that rockets fired towards Tel Aviv in the future will 'surprise the enemy.' A series of reports from Israeli and Palestinian media indicate that a group of Israeli commandos set out on a mission last Sunday to monitor Hamas's advanced rocket plans, although they failed due to an early confrontation with a seven-member group from Hamas's military wing, leading to the crisis two days later. However, commanders of the Israeli commando units stated in weekend news programs that the failure of last Sunday's mission would not affect ongoing plans to pursue and neutralize the actions of Palestinian armed organizations, and according to them, 'details of other daring plans are still being prepared in the army and security institutions.'