The Third Year of War: How Ukrainian Perspectives on Iran Have Changed After Russia's Aggression?

These days, as the people of Ukraine are confused about the new U.S. government's approach and are unsure whether their most important ally in Kyiv over the past three years is now a friend or an enemy, the enemies of Ukraine are clear from the comments of officials and the reactions of the people of this country: Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Interestingly, China, a country that experts believe has benefited the most from Russia's war against Ukraine and plays a significant role in strengthening Russia's military industries, is not perceived as an 'enemy' in Ukrainian public opinion. Ukraine and Iran's relations; from ambitious plans to the possibility of severing diplomatic ties. Iran was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine's independence in December 1991 and opened its embassy in Kyiv the following month. In the spring of 1992, Leonid Kravchuk, the then President of Ukraine, visited Iran to discuss the potential for expanding bilateral relations. Ukraine was considering importing oil and gas from Iran to reduce dependence on Russia and was prepared to assist Iran in developing nuclear energy, aviation industries, and exporting grains. However, the relationship between the two countries has faced many ups and downs from the very beginning. When Iran signed a contract with Russia to complete the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Ukrainian company 'Turboatom' was supposed to be the contractor for this project as a turbine supplier. However, U.S. opposition caused Ukraine to withdraw from participating in this project, leading to widespread criticism in Ukraine. 'Den', one of the most important Ukrainian newspapers at the time, quoted experts estimating Ukraine's loss from withdrawing from this project at over $500 million, and these experts believed that the U.S., which was supposed to provide advanced technology to compensate for this loss, did not fulfill its promise. Mohammad Khatami, the then President of Iran, visited Ukraine in the fall of 2002 to breathe new life into bilateral relations. Expanding cooperation in aircraft manufacturing and transferring Iranian gas to Europe through Ukraine were the main topics of negotiations, but no significant progress was made. Although Ukraine helped Iran produce the Iran-140 aircraft, and according to the Ukrainian embassy's statement in Tehran, 19 units of this aircraft had been produced over fourteen years, the project was halted after four air disasters. During those years, the sale of Kh-55 cruise missiles to Iran caused an uproar in Ukraine and among its Western allies. Under the Budapest Memorandum, which was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's security in exchange for nuclear disarmament and reducing its arsenal, Ukraine was to hand over its missiles to Russia. However, reports indicate that a group of Ukrainian citizens transferred six Kh-55 missiles to China and six along with their testing equipment to Iran. Military experts believe that the Soumar cruise missile, unveiled in Iran in 2015, is an evolved version of the Kh-55 missile. Following this scandal, a period of stagnation in Kyiv-Tehran relations began. However, after the JCPOA agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of some sanctions against Tehran, Ukraine sought to use this opportunity to revive trade relations with Iran, especially the export of agricultural products to this country. In 2016, an intergovernmental economic commission met in Tehran after a five-year hiatus with the presence of Pavlo Klimkin, the then Ukrainian Foreign Minister; this was the first visit by a senior Ukrainian official to Iran in fifteen years. However, Ukraine's efforts to revive economic relations with Iran hit a dead end again with the Trump administration's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran and the imposition of 'maximum pressure.' Meanwhile, the late Sergey Bordyliak, Ukraine's ambassador to Iran at the time, noted that Ukraine should not lose the Iranian market due to U.S. policies. In his opinion, Iran was willing to purchase $3 billion worth of agricultural products from Ukraine annually, and Ukraine could import oil products from Iran. Senior Ukrainian officials, however, decided to limit relations between the two countries again to comply with U.S. sanctions against Iran. On January 8, 2020, the biggest blow to Ukraine-Iran relations occurred when Iran's Tor air defense system shot down the Ukrainian plane PS752 near Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran, killing all 298 passengers on board. The Iranian authorities' concealment, who denied the downing of the plane for three days and later refused to provide clear explanations during subsequent negotiations with Ukraine, led Ukraine and other affected countries to eventually file a lawsuit against Iran in international court. Oleksiy Danilov, the former Secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, repeatedly accused Iran of demonstrating that the downing of the Ukrainian plane was a 'deliberate act' by obstructing transparent investigations. According to him, 'Iran deliberately shot down this plane to prevent an escalation of military conflict with the U.S.' For the past two years, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has proposed severing diplomatic relations with Iran, but the Ukrainian president has yet to decide on this matter. Iran's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine. Since the fall of 2022, Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made Shahed drones against Ukraine; most of them are used in attacks against residential areas and energy facilities. During this time, Iranian officials have claimed Iran's 'neutrality' in the war against Ukraine. A recent statement from the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine's National Security Council stated: 'Iran continues to actively cooperate with Russia, and the development of military exchanges is a priority for both countries. The possibility of delivering short-range Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia remains, although Tehran has officially denied reports in this regard. However, Iranian officials' statements are clearly not trustworthy, as they also deny sending other weapons to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine, while the widespread use of Russian Shahed drones contradicts this claim. Therefore, any peace-seeking statements from Iran regarding the war against Ukraine should be viewed with skepticism. In this statement, it is suggested that Iranian officials consider supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine beneficial for their country for at least two reasons. First, sanctions against Russia and the weakening of its role in the international arena have given Tehran hope that it might gain political, financial, and military concessions from Moscow. Second, the conflicts in Ukraine are likely viewed by Iranian leaders as a factor to divert U.S. attention from Iran. Alexander Samarsky, the former Ukrainian ambassador to Tehran, considers the friendship between Moscow and Tehran 'unstable' and suspects that a 'deal' between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin may not be limited to Ukraine but could also target Iran's interests. Marianna Blinckaya, a prominent Middle East expert in Russia, shares this view. According to her, the participation of Steve Vitkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, in negotiations between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine means that the 'deal' between the two countries will 'bundle' Ukraine and Iran together. The 180-degree shift of Kremlin media regarding the 'enemy of the West.' Public opinion in Ukraine about Iran. Polls show that many Ukrainians view Iran and Iranians negatively. Middle East experts in Kyiv say that the Shahed drones will remain a symbol of Russia's war against Ukraine in memories and will not only hinder the revival of relations between Iran and Ukraine for a long time but may also negatively impact people-to-people relations. Igor Semivolos, a Middle East expert in Ukraine, states: 'Most Ukrainians are unaware of the deep divide between the people and the rulers of Iran and do not know that most Iranians have explicitly taken the side of Ukraine in this war. However, everyone knows that Iran supplied drones to Russia, which has been a nightmare every night during the war. Unfortunately, the term 'Iranian' will evoke the drones the most. I wouldn't be surprised if Iranian tourists, students, or businessmen face problems in Ukraine simply because they are Iranian. This is not the fault of the Iranians; however, the Iranian government cares neither for the people of Ukraine nor for the people of Iran.' At the same time, Vira Konstantinova, an international affairs expert in Kyiv, points to the changing opinions of many Iranian users on social media about Ukraine and believes that Ukraine's popularity has declined. In her opinion, this development can be explained by the role of the media: political propaganda inside Iran acts in concert with Kremlin propaganda, while Ukraine produces no content in Persian. Furthermore, she states that news about Iranian opposition figures in Ukraine is not accurately represented, and Ukrainian political officials practically do not distinguish between Iranian rulers and the opposition. Therefore, in this expert's opinion, 'mutual pessimism is reinforced and will ultimately negatively affect future relations between the two countries.'