The U.S. and China Held First Informal Nuclear Talks in Five Years

The United States and China resumed their first semi-official discussions on nuclear weapons after five years. Reuters reported on Friday, June 21, citing two U.S. representatives who participated in the talks, that Chinese representatives assured that China would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons or threats even in the event of a failure in a dispute over Taiwan. China considers the democratic island its territory, a claim rejected by the Taipei government. Participants in the 'Track Two' talks are usually former officials and academics who can speak authoritatively about their government's positions, although they may not have a role in formulating these positions. Government-to-government negotiations are referred to as 'Track One' talks. In the two-day discussions held in a conference room at a Shanghai hotel, about six representatives, including former officials and scientists, represented Washington. From Beijing, several researchers and analysts, including some former Chinese military officers, participated in the negotiations. Reuters quoted a U.S. State Department spokesperson as saying that the department did not participate in the 'Track Two' talks, which could be 'useful,' but was aware of them. The spokesperson stated that such discussions cannot replace formal negotiations that 'allow participants to speak authoritatively on topics that are often classified in government circles.' Chinese delegation members and the Chinese Ministry of Defense did not respond to Reuters' requests for comments. The informal talks between the two nuclear powers had been delayed for a long time due to differences between the two countries over economic and geopolitical issues, with leaders in Beijing and Washington accusing each other of bad faith. The two countries resumed 'Track One' negotiations last December, but those talks hit a deadlock, and a senior U.S. official publicly expressed disappointment at China's response. The Pentagon estimates that China's nuclear arsenal has grown by twenty percent between 2021 and 2023, and last October it announced that China would consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons for deterrence if it felt threatened by defeat in a conventional war over Taiwan. The department estimated that Beijing has 500 operational nuclear warheads and is likely to increase that number to one thousand by 2029. In contrast, the United States and Russia have 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads, respectively. China has modernized its arsenal since 2020, begun producing a new generation of ballistic missile submarines, tested its hypersonic warheads, and initiated nuclear-armed maritime patrols. China has never ruled out the use of force to control Taiwan and has increased its military activity around the island over the past four years. The 'Track Two' talks are part of a two-decade dialogue on nuclear weapons that was halted after budget cuts by the Trump administration in 2019. These semi-official discussions resumed after the COVID-19 pandemic regarding security and energy issues. However, it was only at the Shanghai meeting that nuclear weapons were discussed in detail. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia signed an agreement last year to share nuclear submarine technology and develop a new class of vessels. Washington's policy on nuclear weapons includes the possibility of using them if deterrence fails, although the Pentagon states it would only consider this in dire circumstances.