The U.S. and Israel are examining new information on Iran's 'nuclear weapon production modeling'

Axios reports, citing four informed sources, that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are reviewing new information regarding 'the computer modeling by Iranian nuclear scientists for research and development of nuclear weapons.' Two U.S. officials, along with a current and a former Israeli official, stated on Tuesday, June 18, that senior officials from the U.S. and Israel will meet at the White House regarding Iran's nuclear program as part of the 'U.S.-Israel Strategic Consultative Group' (SCG). Some Israeli and American officials express that the new information obtained from 'computer modeling for nuclear weapons research and development' by Iranian nuclear scientists is 'very concerning and a warning regarding the Islamic Republic's ambitions to produce a nuclear bomb.' However, others believe that the new information does not indicate a political or strategic shift in Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic claims that it has never sought to produce a nuclear bomb. This is the first time since March 2023 that the U.S.-Israel Strategic Consultative Group has met regarding Iran's nuclear program. An American official and an Israeli official told Axios that the new information has increased 'concerns and suspicions' regarding Iran's nuclear activities. Another Israeli official stated that after the bloody attack by Hamas on October 7 last year, the Israeli intelligence community takes any information, even small details, about potential steps by the Islamic Republic to build nuclear weapons more seriously. The U.S. intelligence community concluded in 2007 that Iran had not had an active military nuclear program since 2003. U.S. officials told Axios that this assessment has not changed. Officials from both countries indicated to the American publication that there are no signs that Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has ordered the resumption of the military nuclear program. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported about three months ago that Iran is attempting to acquire some components necessary for producing a nuclear warhead, including precise detonators. Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, states that if Iran has taken initial steps toward building a nuclear warhead, this would contradict the long-standing U.S. intelligence consensus that the Islamic Republic has ceased work on nuclear weapons. The report adds that documents stolen from Iran's nuclear archive by Mossad in 2018 showed that Iranian nuclear scientists were modeling nuclear explosions before 2003. Khamenei: If Iran's existence is threatened, we will have to change our nuclear doctrine. In recent months, some officials of the Islamic Republic, including Kamal Kharrazi, head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and senior advisor to Ali Khamenei, have stated that if the Islamic Republic is threatened, it will 'have to change its nuclear doctrine.' Kharrazi threatened in an interview on May 10 that 'we have the capacity to produce a bomb' and if Iran's 'existence is threatened,' 'we will have to change our nuclear doctrine.' A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency in late May states that Iran has approximately 142 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which is an increase of more than 20 kilograms compared to the previous report (February of this year). According to assessments by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, Iran would only need a few weeks to increase the concentration of this amount of uranium to 90% - the level required for a nuclear weapon. Producing any nuclear bomb requires at least 42 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium.