The U.S. at the Crossroads of Iran and Saudi Arabia

Recent developments, including the execution of 47 individuals, including Shia cleric Nimr Baqr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia, attacks on Saudi diplomatic offices in Iran, and the severing of relations between Riyadh and several of its allies with Iran, are unfolding in a tense Middle East but are not unrelated to the wider world. Analysts are particularly focused on Washington. The U.S. is trying to advance a nuclear agreement with Iran while also maintaining its alliance with Middle Eastern Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia. One of the milestones of Barack Obama's administration in the past year was inviting Gulf Cooperation Council member states to Washington prior to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. After the nuclear agreement in July, the U.S. sought to bring key players in the Syrian crisis, including Russia, to the negotiating table, with the participation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir, creating a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the Syrian crisis. However, with the escalation of conflict between the two main Middle Eastern rivals, the Obama administration in Washington is facing a serious challenge. Randa Slim, a senior analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told Radio Farda, "This tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia poses a challenge for the U.S., which aimed to address the crises in Syria and Yemen this year. The U.S. views improved relations between Tehran and Riyadh as a crucial prerequisite for resolving these crises and is currently trying to prevent further damage to this issue. Mr. Kerry has spoken with his Iranian counterpart and is also leveraging allies like Turkey and Egypt regarding Saudi Arabia, so that if de-escalation is not possible, at least the crisis does not intensify further." Recently, numerous comments regarding the Riyadh-Washington relationship have been made by unnamed officials or analysts. Some have spoken of Riyadh's dissatisfaction with the Obama administration, while others have emphasized that Washington is not pleased with its long-time ally's behavior. Some have even gone further, suggesting that Riyadh may not be a natural ally for Washington. A New York Times columnist noted the U.S.-Saudi relationship based on oil, stating that with the increase in domestic oil production in the U.S. in recent months, even this factor has diminished in the bilateral relationship. Michael Singh, director of the Washington Institute, believes that the challenges in U.S.-Saudi relations have been forming for some time. He told Radio Farda, "For instance, look at the actions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding Yemen, much of which has been carried out without consulting the U.S., which Washington is now almost supporting. Or consider the disagreements the U.S. and its allies have with these countries regarding Syria and Bashar al-Assad's role in the future of that country or Iran's role in Iraq. I believe the U.S. will continue to work with its allies, but there is a serious gap between the U.S. approach and that of its allies regarding the Middle East, especially Iran's role." Randa Slim in Washington also emphasizes the problems in U.S.-Saudi relations. She states, "The security and stability of the Saudi regime remain important to the U.S. government, but the level of influence the U.S. previously had is no longer there. This influence was based on the Saudis believing that the U.S. would support them in any situation, and now Riyadh does not see that support, or at least does not see it from this administration. As a result, Saudi leaders say they will do what is in their interest and do not care about the regional or internal consequences. Consequently, they do not consult with the Americans and do not accept their recommendations." This approach, according to Ms. Slim, will likely persist until the end of the current U.S. administration, which is about a year away. "The Saudis hope that the next U.S. administration, whether led by a Democrat like Hillary Clinton or a Republican, will change its approach towards Iran, but I believe they are mistaken. I think the nuclear agreement with Iran and Obama's doctrine that U.S. interests are secured through a balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the two main regional actors has become part of U.S. national security interests, and any incoming administration will adhere to it. Therefore, we are in an era where the Saudis are digesting this new Washington approach to the region, which will take time and require extensive dialogues between Americans and Saudis for them to understand this new relationship, especially since Iran is no longer the enemy it was before the agreement." Over seven decades, the Washington-Riyadh relationship has experienced ups and downs, and Iran has not been the only contentious issue. Disagreements between the two sides have included the Israel-Palestine issue, Riyadh's financial support for extremist groups, and the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia.