The United States and the Uncertain Future of the Nuclear Agreement with Iran

Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, outlined the Trump administration's roadmap for gradually distancing itself from the nuclear agreement during her remarks on Tuesday to members and guests of the Washington Enterprise Institute. Although Ms. Haley stated that the final decision regarding the U.S. refusal to certify Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement has not yet been finalized, considering other points she raised, it seems that the U.S. government's decision on this matter has been made and is only awaiting the designated time for announcement. The deadline for the U.S. government to announce its vote is October 15, at the end of the three-month extension period for certifying Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement and the necessary correspondence between the U.S. government and Congress. In an unprecedented and significant conclusion regarding the potential non-certification of Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement, Ms. Haley on Tuesday referred the final responsibility for the U.S. remaining in or leaving the nuclear agreement to Congress. In justifying this part of her explanation, she likened it to a roadmap, stating that the non-certification of Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement (at this stage) does not imply an immediate U.S. withdrawal from it. The Obama administration, due to serious opposition from the previous Congress regarding the content of the nuclear agreement, effectively reduced the level of commitments from 'contract' to 'agreement', thereby limiting the lawmakers' direct intervention in the outcome of nuclear negotiations. Nevertheless, through a legislative resolution, it was placed upon the government to review Iran's compliance with the agreement every three months in order to continue the lifting of sanctions, and the results were to be reported to Congress by the government. If the U.S. government refrains from certifying Iran's compliance with the commitments, Congress will have the opportunity to review the matter and decide on the continuation of U.S. compliance within the framework of the agreement, similar to the decision the Trump administration made regarding another previous Obama administration resolution on illegal immigrants to the U.S. and referring it to Congress. Given Congress's approach to the Islamic Republic's actions regarding missile activities, human rights violations, and provocative actions in the region (all of which Ms. Haley referenced in her remarks on Tuesday), referring the nuclear agreement case to Congress effectively means the end of U.S. compliance with the terms of the nuclear agreement. After the U.S. exits from the relevant commitments, the nuclear agreement with one less member (the U.S.) can still continue among European countries, Russia, China, and the International Atomic Energy Agency, but not in the same manner as before. The transfer of decision-making authority regarding the nuclear agreement from the government to Congress represents a division of responsibilities between the U.S. State Department on one hand and the country's lawmakers (Congress) and, on the other hand, the political representation of Washington at the United Nations: a diminishing role for the State Department and a reduction in the influence of its Secretary. In relation to Iran, the potential consequences of the U.S. exit from the agreement are undoubtedly much more serious. The potential U.S. exit from the agreement, even if Washington continues to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2231, is akin to the largest shareholder exiting a multilateral company, which would inevitably lead to the company's bankruptcy and dissolution. The Islamic Republic government, at the outset and immediately after announcing the U.S. exit from the nuclear agreement, will not be able to exit in a wasteful manner and will apparently be content to continue working with European countries. European cooperation with Iran, within the framework of the nuclear agreement, is a much more complex issue, and its continuation will depend on aligning the situation with the subsequent U.S. sanctions against Iran—especially if U.S. sanctions impose penalties or prohibit transactions by a third country or institution with Iran. Thus, European companies' investments in Iran, trade exchanges, banking transfers, and European partnerships with Iran will be affected by restrictive provisions arising from the approval and implementation of U.S. sanctions, which will be enacted based on missile actions or human rights violations in Iran. Although Ms. Haley emphasized in her remarks on Tuesday that the final decision regarding the fate of the nuclear agreement rests with the U.S. President, considering her recent trip to Vienna to negotiate with the Secretary General of the IAEA, it seems that her presence at the speech and explanations at the Washington Enterprise Institute was an effort to create a psychological groundwork for a decision that has now been made and is expected to be implemented at the designated time.