The Ups and Downs of Iran's Nuclear Negotiations in 2014

The nuclear negotiations of 2014 were one of the most controversial issues in Iran's domestic and foreign policy that year. Partial diplomatic successes, two failures to finalize a contract, and the possibility of achieving a historic comprehensive agreement on nuclear issues were indicators of the ups and downs of the nuclear negotiations for both the Islamic Republic of Iran and the members of the group known as 5+1 (the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany). At the beginning of the year, Iran and the 5+1 powers began implementing the action plan proposed by Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. Alongside the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also began ongoing inspections of Iran's nuclear program to ensure compliance with the terms of the nuclear agreement of November 11. The IAEA's first report indicated that Iran was adhering to the conditions set in the temporary nuclear agreement. Iran abandoned 20% uranium enrichment, which is used for making nuclear weapons, and halted its major activities at the Arak heavy water reactor. It also reduced the level of enrichment and the volume of enriched uranium but continued its nuclear research within the framework of the temporary nuclear agreement. Tehran also committed to oxidizing enriched uranium to 5%, which could no longer be used for further enrichment. Additionally, according to the IAEA's initial report, Iran provided some information and explanations regarding the testing of explosive triggers for civilian use. In return, the United States and the European Union lifted some economic sanctions against Iran. Iran managed to free up $7 billion from sanctions, with $4.2 billion related to Iran's oil revenues in blocked accounts. Hassan Rouhani, based on the International Monetary Fund's announcement, seemed to have stabilized the domestic economy and brought some stability to the value of the rial. However, in August, Iran failed to meet all the conditions of the temporary nuclear agreement. Due to differences in positions between the six powers and Iran, they could not sign a comprehensive agreement. On November 24, 2014, Iran and the 5+1 powers reached a deadlock in finalizing the agreement, and the deadline was extended once again. However, it seems that the differences between the negotiating parties remain unresolved. Furthermore, no specific plan has been proposed to overcome the obstacles in the next round of negotiations. Although Rouhani and his team seem to have been successful in the diplomatic path of the nuclear negotiations and managed to lift some sanctions against Iran, the government remains the target of criticism from some media and hardline officials. The main criticisms from the hardline faction are directed at the 'weakness' of Rouhani's position and his negotiating team. Additionally, the hardline faction demands the immediate removal of economic sanctions and recognition of Iran's right to uranium enrichment. Rouhani has emphasized Iran's red lines, stating, 'There are red lines for us that cannot be crossed. Our red lines include our national interests, which encompass our legitimate rights under international law and uranium enrichment in Iran.' Rouhani's government still enjoys the support of Iran's Supreme Leader for continuing negotiations. Ayatollah Khamenei is still trying to maintain a balance between hardliners and moderates. After the second failure to finalize the comprehensive nuclear agreement, Ayatollah Khamenei stated, 'For the same reason that I did not oppose negotiations from the beginning, I do not oppose their extension either.' He expressed Iran's willingness to accept a fair and logical agreement, adding that 'he knows that the U.S. government needs an agreement and will be harmed by the lack of one.' However, he said that if the negotiations yield no results, the Iranian government will lose nothing. The extension of the negotiations did not come with a specific framework to resolve the differences between Iran and the six powers. The main disagreements remain: 1. The path for lifting sanctions. The Islamic Republic of Iran still demands the rapid removal of sanctions after the final nuclear agreement is signed. However, the Western governments propose a gradual lifting of sanctions based on Iran's compliance with the agreements. 2. Information about Iran's past activities, especially regarding explosive triggers and the military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, is another obstacle. 3. The next issue is accepting a reduction in the volume of uranium stored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Western governments want to delay Iran's access to nuclear weapon production capability by at least a year. 4. The timing of the final nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions. The Islamic Republic wants sanctions lifted before the proposed 20 years by the Western members of the 5+1 group. 5. The number of centrifuges. Currently, Iran has about 19,000 centrifuges. Despite some achievements by Rouhani's government and nuclear negotiators and the lifting of some sanctions, the differences between Iran and the six governments still seem unresolved. Furthermore, the extension of nuclear negotiations has further ignited criticism of Rouhani's government, especially among hardline circles.