The World in 2018: Fluctuations in US-Russia Relations

US-Russia relations, especially during Donald Trump's presidency, are significant in both international and domestic dimensions. This article, while referencing some events from 2018, aims to delve deeper into the content of developments and refrains from providing a chronological calendar of events. The developments between the US and Russia over the past two years have been scrutinized from several angles. Internationally, Russia's traditional competition with the US over very sensitive global issues, from modern nuclear weapons to the struggle for power and influence in critical geographical regions, continues at various levels, but it can be said that overall, the level of this competition is lower than during the Cold War. Although Russia's role in Crimea and Ukraine, in Iran and Syria, and its involvement in global strategic markets like oil are noteworthy in terms of international competition and geopolitical maneuvers, none of these led to a direct confrontation between the two countries. US-Russia relations are also somewhat influenced by domestic policies in the US, which are typically more pessimistic and sensitive towards relations with Russia. This factor has been particularly sensitive since Donald Trump's election. Under pressure from Democrats and following Trump's victory in the presidential election, the judiciary initiated an independent investigation led by Special Counsel Mueller to explore various aspects and the possibility of collusion between Trump and his associates with the Russians, as well as Russian interference in the previous two-year election. Part of this ongoing process is intensely focused on the daily relations of the Trump administration with Russia, and not only the general public but also many intellectuals in society are searching for connections between the political behaviors of Putin and Trump, leading to interpretations and analyses of each other's actions. After Congress confirmed the issue of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, particularly from mid-2017, verbal disputes between Russia and the US entered a phase of diplomatic confrontation. During July and September, hundreds of diplomatic personnel were expelled, and Russian consulates in the US were closed. The Russians claimed that in some cases, Russian diplomats were informed only 12 hours in advance that their homes would be searched by FBI agents. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson deemed these actions more hostile than during President Obama's time, when a group of Russian diplomats was expelled. By September of that year, through reciprocal actions, the number of staff at the embassies of both sides was reduced to about 450, and several large consulates were closed. This situation created numerous consular problems in many US states with significant Russian populations. The European Parliament report indicates that Russia's international behavior elsewhere also impacts US-Russia relations. In February 2018, a report on global nuclear capabilities referred to a 'return to competition' in the equations of great powers and placed Russia's nuclear strategy at the center of US attention. The European Union's 100-page report in October placed less emphasis on arms control but stressed 'reliable deterrence' in the nuclear realm. Part of this document notes Russia's nuclear advantage in 'the limited use of weapons with lower nuclear payloads.' This document shows that Russia, as a nuclear power, is a focal point for the US, just as the Russians have concerns about the production of modern nuclear weapons in the US. In other areas, tensions have not diminished at all. For instance, when in March 2018, former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned in the UK with a military-grade nerve agent developed by the Russians, fingers were pointed at Russia, and in response to this accusation and in solidarity with Britain, 60 diplomats and personnel from Russian embassies and consulates were expelled from the US. A brief report from the European Parliament cites a claim from the Russian embassy in Washington in August that the relationship between the two countries is on the verge of collapse and approaching a 'point of no return.' The report adds that although there was hope for a reduction in tensions following Trump's election, bilateral tensions and sometimes old issues like sanctions due to aggression in Ukraine intensified. The European Parliament report emphasizes that militarily, Russia is not equal to the US; however, Moscow's nuclear arsenal is considered a significant potential threat. The detention of a Ukrainian ship in the Sea of Azov in late November saw Russia seize a ship and arrest 24 Ukrainian naval personnel, forcing three of them to appear and confess on a television program. Russia claimed that these individuals freely participated in the program and confessed to having a security mission. The US response to this event was multifaceted. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deemed it a 'dangerous escalation' in the conflict and 'an infringement of international law,' while Donald Trump stated, 'We are not happy with what is happening, but we hope things get back on track.' These remarks differed significantly from reactions heard from the European Union, particularly from Britain, Germany, and France, where many believed the US response was quite mild. However, President Trump, without showing a strong reaction towards Putin and Russia, suddenly announced on November 29, while traveling to Argentina for the G20 summit, that he had canceled his planned meeting with Vladimir Putin, which had been scheduled in advance. Just hours before flying to Argentina, he had expressed that it was a good time for such a meeting. He also stated that he was waiting for a complete report that would reach him during the flight. However, shortly after expressing readiness, Trump's opinion changed, and the meeting was canceled because Russia 'did not return the ship and Ukrainian personnel.' This was while Russian leader Putin was also preparing to attend this meeting. Some observers believe this change was due to internal developments in the US and had nothing to do with the Ukrainian ship incident, which had apparently occurred days earlier. It is worth noting that on the same day in the US, the case of Michael Cohen, Trump's personal lawyer, was referred to the judiciary by the special counsel, and after review, Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison. Part of this individual's charges was indirectly related to the issue of Trump's relationship with Russia. When we look at Vladimir Putin's remarks on December 20 in response to Western accusations against Russia, other dimensions of the competition and relationship between the US and Russia become clear. Putin not only does not refer to the accusation of collusion with Trump but cleverly addresses the broader problem of the West as a whole, stating that 'policymakers are unwilling to accept the views of their voters,' and regarding the US, the existing problem is that 'policymakers are unwilling to accept Trump's victory in the presidential election.' Putin's remarks clearly illustrate the competition between Russia and the US on one side and Russia with the 'West' as a distinct whole. The first bilateral meeting between the leaders of the two countries took place in July 2018. In this meeting, Putin and Trump met in Helsinki, and according to the European Parliament report, the US President's attitude towards Russia and Vladimir Putin was ambiguous. In a press conference alongside Putin, he did not hold him responsible for interference in the 2016 elections despite reports from US security agencies and attempted to emphasize commonalities. Trump repeatedly stated that both the US and Russia were responsible for the disarray and decay of bilateral relations. Trump's statements were not endorsed by either the Democratic or Republican parties in the US. In this meeting, Putin denied interfering in US domestic affairs or elections but for the first time acknowledged that he personally wanted Trump to win the election. The Helsinki meeting was held behind closed doors, attended only by interpreters, and faced severe criticism from domestic circles in the US. Following multiple criticisms of Trump's behavior towards Putin, he labeled the European Union as 'opposed' and Montenegro, a NATO ally, as 'aggressive,' and at the NATO summit on July 12, he claimed that Germany was entirely under Russian control. He also threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. In recent months, the issue of the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), signed between Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, has been raised. Putin criticized the US for its withdrawal from this treaty, while the US had accused Russia of ignoring the treaty's requirements and developing missiles since President Obama's administration. Russia and the US also have differing views on issues related to Iran and Syria, but Putin views Trump's decision to withdraw US forces from Syria positively, while this decision has sparked significant opposition in the US against Trump, leading to the resignation of General Mattis, the US Secretary of Defense, and subsequently, 'Brett McGurk,' who had been the US representative in the global coalition against the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) since Obama's presidency, is also seen as a direct result of this decision. Putin's support for a European army is another critical point where Putin distances himself from US positions, while US experts interpret Putin's positions as stemming from competition with the US. For instance, in recent decades, whenever the discussion of a 'European NATO' or a European army has been raised by European leaders, US leaders have either not taken it seriously or opposed it. The latest instance of such friction was the proposal for a European defense army, which was raised on November 11 during a meeting of leaders to commemorate the centenary of the end of World War I in Paris by Emmanuel Macron. Donald Trump dismissed Macron's statement with ridicule. However, Vladimir Putin, in a December 20 interview with RT, referred to European unity as a 'powerful economic bloc' that has the right to be self-sufficient in 'defense and security matters.' This statement indicates that Russia seeks to create division and discord within the Western bloc and NATO to diminish US and NATO strategic power. Russia is perceived as a threat by each European country, and from the European perspective, the necessity and rationale for such an army stem from Russia's presence on the continent and its potential threat, which has manifested itself in recent years in the form of aggression towards Crimea. In contrast, Putin's endorsement of a European army should not be interpreted as support for a 'powerful' Europe. On the contrary, Russia's and Putin's view is aimed at weakening NATO and diminishing US leadership in European security matters. Cybersecurity and human rights are other noteworthy aspects of US-Russia relations. In August 2018, Microsoft announced that Russian hackers attempted to infiltrate two conservative American think tanks to influence the congressional midterm elections. The European Parliament report states that President Trump's approach to human rights issues in Russia, like many other topics, shows a stark contrast compared to other US presidents. For example, due to human rights concerns, President Obama was reluctant to congratulate Putin on his victory in the 2012 elections. The same concerns persisted after the 2018 elections, but despite officials' recommendations, Donald Trump decided to congratulate Putin on his victory in an election that Senator John McCain at the time described as a 'victory in a fake election.' Another instance is that in April 2018, the US announced it would sanction Russia for its cooperation in Syria's chemical weapons program, but ultimately, such a decision was not implemented. Other issues include disagreements between the US and Russia regarding North Korea. In August 2018, the US accused Russia of hiring labor from North Korea in violation of UN resolutions and continuing illegal dealings with Pyongyang. Most of the US sanctions against Russia relate to Ukraine, which began in 2014. However, in September 2018, arms purchases from Russian manufacturers were also sanctioned. In implementing these sanctions, Chinese buyers of Russian arms were sanctioned, while to avoid complicating relations with India, Indian importers of Russian arms were not subjected to US sanctions. In the past, there were notable instances of cooperation between Russia and the US, with the nuclear agreement with Iran being a successful example, but Trump's withdrawal from this agreement effectively ended cooperation between the US and Russia on Iran's nuclear program. Arms control agreements can prevent tensions in relations, but the future of such agreements, as previously stated regarding the intermediate-range missile treaty, remains uncertain. Currently, Russia's economy is significantly smaller than that of the US. Russia considers itself the fifth-largest economic power in the world, while international sources rank it twelfth.