Threefold Discrepancy Between Central Bank and Statistical Center Estimates of Housing Inflation in Tehran

While the Statistical Center of Iran reported a 43% inflation rate for housing prices in Tehran in July compared to the same month last year, the Central Bank claimed that housing inflation was only 14%. A report published on Sunday, September 2, on the Central Bank's website stated that the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran during July this year was 87.5 million tomans, which represents a 14.3% increase compared to the same month last year and less than a 2% increase compared to June this year. In contrast, according to the Statistical Center's estimates, housing prices in July jumped by 43.1% compared to July of last year. Since the beginning of President Raisi's administration, housing prices in Tehran have increased by '2.7 times.' Housing inflation has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, with Central Bank statistics showing it rose from below 20% in Farvardin 1401 to over 100% in Ordibehesht last year, then declining to below 10% in Khordad this year, before rising again to over 14% last month. President Ebrahim Raisi's government promised at the start of its term to build one million housing units annually to prevent the housing inflation and rental crisis, a promise that has not been realized even in small parts. When Raisi's government took office, the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran was less than 32 million tomans. Mohammad Reza Rezaei Koocheh, head of the Parliament's Civil Commission, announced on Farvardin 25 that the progress of the 'National Housing Movement' plan has stalled at 25%, with only a 'very small' portion of government housing projects delivered. He stated that what has been delivered is related to the 'National Housing Action' project of the previous government. Central Bank statistics show that the number of housing transactions in Tehran last month increased by 27% compared to July last year, reaching 3,559 units, but showed an 8% decline compared to June this year. The Central Bank's archive indicates that in Khordad 1397, before the imposition of U.S. sanctions against Iran, nearly 15,000 houses were traded in Tehran. This report also indicates that rental prices in Tehran increased by 50% last month compared to July last year.