Transformations in Russia-Saudi Arabia Relations

Historically, Russia or the former Soviet Union was the first country to recognize the newly established Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by King Abdulaziz in 1926. Although later ideological conflicts with communism on one side and alignment with the Western bloc on the other separated the Islamic country of Saudi Arabia, which considers the Quran as its constitution, from the communist Soviet Union. In 1932, the first official visit by a Saudi official to Moscow took place. Prince Faisal Abdulaziz, who was only 26 at the time, entered Russia as the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia. The issues between the two sides were not as complex as today, and the Foreign Minister's work revolved around three topics: borrowing from Russia, reclaiming Saudi waqf lands in Russia that had been confiscated following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, and allowing Russian Muslims to travel for Hajj. Until 1994, when former Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin visited Saudi Arabia and an economic, commercial, and technical agreement was signed between the two countries, there was no significant thaw in relations after Faisal bin Abdulaziz's visit. When Faisal became King of Saudi Arabia in 1964, he became one of the staunch enemies of the communist bloc, with his intense rivalry with Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt playing a significant role in this confrontation with the Eastern bloc. However, today, the new thaw in relations between the two countries revolves around issues that are much more complex than those raised in the early 20th century, with competition with Iran and the United States' reluctance to become more involved in regional affairs being at the top of Saudi Arabia's priorities for expanding its relations with Russia. Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Moscow without Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir and away from the presence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef sent a clear message to the United States that its allies had no role in this visit. Mohammed bin Nayef and Adel al-Jubeir are known for their inclination towards U.S. policies in the region. Saudi Arabia's economy, with an investment of about $746 billion and a 6% economic growth over the past decade, along with a solid and updated economic infrastructure and high foreign investment attractiveness, provides an exceptional opportunity for Russia to somewhat free itself from the economic sanctions of Western governments. Therefore, activating the joint economic and commercial cooperation commission between Russia and Saudi Arabia has been one of the most important goals of Moscow's statesmen, who managed to hold significant meetings on this in St. Petersburg. The agreements reached in the economic and commercial fields between Saudi Arabia and Russia allow Russian companies to have 100% ownership in all fields of investment except for financial services and communications sectors. These companies are also exempt from income tax, excess profit tax, sales tax, and property tax, and will only pay 20% tax on profits after deducting costs and potential losses. Foreign investment in Saudi Arabia is currently $208 billion, and the Saudi government aims to increase this figure to $500 billion over the next decade, hoping that Russian companies will play a significant role in this increase. Negotiations regarding Syria without Bashar al-Assad have intensified alongside fundamental changes in the Syrian war equation on all fronts and the weakening of Bashar al-Assad. Undoubtedly, Russia can play a major role in accelerating any political changes in Damascus. Before Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Russia, for the first time, the Russians did not veto a resolution condemning Bashar al-Assad for using barrel bombs against Syrian citizens. Additionally, in recent weeks, Russia has reduced the number of its diplomats in Syria and evacuated many of its experts along with their families from the port of Tartus, without sending replacements to Syria. Some reports have also indicated a halt in Russian arms shipments to the port of Latakia. These developments were deemed very important by Saudi politicians, prioritizing the need for cooperation and encouragement. Reports published in Arab media suggest that Saudi Arabia and Russia seem to have agreed on a transitional period in Syria without Bashar al-Assad. During this transitional period, an Alawite figure will take charge of the country's affairs, with the main functions being to ensure the security of minorities on one hand and to hold parliamentary and presidential elections and draft a new constitution on the other. This plan could be implemented with the participation of other countries, including the United States and the European Union. Among the six agreements signed between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are referred to as 'strategic', one pertains to nuclear energy, under which Russia will participate in the construction of 16 nuclear power plants for peaceful purposes and to provide energy. Currently, Saudi Arabia has a location called 'King Abdullah Nuclear Energy City' in the west of Riyadh, where all studies related to the establishment of nuclear power plants are conducted. This center was established in 2010 by a decree from King Abdullah. According to studies conducted at this center, the Saudi government has allocated $300 billion for the construction of 16 power plants, with two operational plants expected to join the energy production grid after ten years, and two additional plants added each year. Additionally, extensive solar energy farms are planned alongside these power plants, modeled after European countries. Saudi Arabia also has agreements for the construction of nuclear power plants with South Korea and France. The SMART power plants that the Koreans are set to build in Saudi Arabia will be used for electricity production and desalination, operating ten times more efficiently than conventional plants. However, the Saudi government's turn towards nuclear cooperation with Russia could be a political decision to compete with Iran's nuclear programs. It remains to be seen how the fuel supply methods for Russian power plants in Saudi Arabia will work. If this method aligns precisely with centrifugation and enrichment, it would mean that the region is heading towards intense nuclear competition, potentially leading to an arms race with increased enrichment levels.