Trump and Sanders Win; What Happens Now?

The nightmare of the Republicans has become a reality as Donald Trump won the first party primary with a significant lead over the second place. A similar event occurred in the first Democratic primary as well, where Hillary Clinton, who has considerable support from the core of the Democratic Party, lost to Bernie Sanders, who represents the progressive left of the Democrats. However, Sanders is not unfamiliar with the world of politics, as he is a seasoned politician like Trump. Both Trump and Sanders had been leading in polls in New Hampshire for weeks, but few expected such stunning victories; Trump managed to secure over 35% of the votes, while Sanders recorded an impressive 60% win. Now, the paths to selecting the final nominees for both the Democratic and Republican parties have been clarified in the key states of Iowa (the first place where candidates are chosen through a caucus) and New Hampshire (where the first primary is held), and the candidates' campaigns are already looking towards the remaining 48 states. The important news from the Republican primary in New Hampshire does not end with Trump's victory. The second significant news was that John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, came in second. Although he was far behind Trump with about 15% of the votes, his unexpected success in New Hampshire made him a surprise in the election. Kasich had adopted a different strategy compared to his rivals, focusing all his energy on New Hampshire after skipping Iowa, and he campaigned there for 62 days. Ultimately, he reaped the rewards and suddenly became a significant news item by finishing second. Ted Cruz, the candidate for religious conservatives and hardliners who had won in Iowa, finished third in New Hampshire. The next surprise was Marco Rubio's free fall to fifth place and Jeb Bush's rise to fourth. Until the last polls before the election, Rubio was in second place. His strategists claimed he would finish third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina (the next state where Republicans will vote). Now, however, finishing first in South Carolina has become more challenging for Rubio than ever. The main reason for Rubio's downfall was the last Republican debate, where he faced criticism from all sides and was accused of merely repeating what his advisors told him without showing enough initiative and creativity to find solutions in real challenges. He could not shake off this criticism and ultimately fell short in New Hampshire against all predictions. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush, by finishing fourth, breathed a sigh of relief. He no longer has to withdraw from the race under pressure from Republican financial backers. However, there is a possibility that another candidate closely tied to the party's core, Chris Christie, may withdraw from the race as he only garnered 7.5% of the votes. Among the Democrats, Sanders' victory was not surprising. However, his 60% support and the extensive participation of young voters in the election not only surprised some but also injected extraordinary energy into his campaign. This progressive candidate, who identifies as a socialist and speaks about the need for a 'political revolution,' has created an emotional and exciting atmosphere around him with his high vote count, which some consider essential for ultimate victory. He also used his victory speech as a golden opportunity to promote his agenda while thanking Hillary Clinton and her supporters, showcasing his different image compared to other candidates. However, Hillary Clinton's experience in New Hampshire was entirely different from her previous presence in the state in 2008. At that time, Barack Obama, after winning Iowa, was at the top of many polls with a wave of enthusiastic supporters and seemed poised to easily become the final Democratic nominee by winning New Hampshire. But during that period, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire and continued her competition with Obama with great tenacity. This time, however, New Hampshire completely turned its back on Clinton. She received about 40% of the votes, losing to a candidate who relies heavily on the youth vote, a group that will likely become the primary target of Clinton's campaign efforts from now on. The next steps in the primary campaign for both Democrats and Republicans will follow with some differences. For the Republican Party, the next election will be held on February 20 (March 1) in South Carolina. In this state, Trump has been leading significantly, and with his victory in New Hampshire, his path to another win will not be too difficult. After him, the votes of Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush are crucial for Republican observers. These three, along with Chris Christie, are the favored candidates of the party's bigwigs. They are seasoned politicians, and some believe that until now, the votes of the large and decisive moderate Republican group have been divided among these four. Therefore, the withdrawal of any of these four in favor of another could not only completely transform the final outcome but could also be a strategy to counter Donald Trump's candidacy. The South Carolina election and the subsequent Nevada primary (on March 24) are extremely important to determine which of these four will stay and which will go. If by that day it is not clear who will remain and who will leave, the established Republicans may find it even more challenging, as 'Super Tuesday' will arrive on March 1 (March 11), determining the fate of 14 states for the Republican Party in one day. If Trump remains at the top until then and wins 'Super Tuesday,' defeating him will become nearly impossible. Among the Democrats, there are also many uncertainties about the continuation of the competition. Unlike the Republicans, they will take their next step in Nevada and then go to South Carolina. In the polls in both states, Clinton has been ahead so far, but the main question is whether the conditions will remain the same in these two states after Sanders' stunning victory in New Hampshire. Even if Clinton wins both states, there is still a possibility that Sanders could claim several states on 'Super Tuesday' and remain a strong contender. Such a situation occurred in 2008 between Clinton and Obama, and Hillary Clinton herself demonstrated after 'Super Tuesday' that she would not easily withdraw from the race. Ultimately, with the outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire clarified, this electoral competition has taken on a more genuine form than ever and has distanced itself from constant speculation. So far, the winners—Sanders, Clinton, Cruz, and Trump—are still significant contenders for the final victory. But this is not the end of the competition. Based on what has happened in U.S. presidential elections since 1972, not only can the remaining candidates still hold hope, but they can always think of a candidate's campaign during such days and find inspiration: Bill Clinton in 1992. He finished third in Iowa that year and then lost in New Hampshire, but ultimately became the Democratic nominee and won the main election, becoming president. Any of the remaining Republican candidates can think of Clinton's miracle in '92 and still hope to one day become president and have their name recorded in history.