Trump on the Future of the JCPOA: You'll See What Happens

Donald Trump, the President of the United States, on Monday, September 18, emphasized in response to a question regarding what he would do about the nuclear agreement with Iran that "you'll see what happens" at the beginning of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The one-hour meeting between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in New York was the third meeting of the leaders of the United States and Israel in the eight months since Trump took office. Netanyahu had recently stated that "the JCPOA is a bad agreement that must be canceled or amended." He emphasized at the beginning of his meeting with the U.S. President that he is looking to discuss with Trump how the two countries can jointly respond to the "very bad nuclear agreement" and push back Iran's influence in the region. However, in response to the question of what he would do about the Iran nuclear agreement, Trump only noted that "you will soon see what happens." It is likely that the Trump administration, which has so far confirmed Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement twice, will adopt a different policy regarding it in October, when it must report to Congress on Tehran's compliance or non-compliance with the agreement. According to Israeli media, Netanyahu was prepared for the meeting with Trump with "specific proposals" aimed at "cancelling or fundamentally changing" the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. Israeli Intelligence Minister Israel Katz stated last week that the Israeli Prime Minister would present three options to Trump regarding the JCPOA: "cancellation, suspension, or fundamental change of its provisions." In this context, Haaretz reported on Monday that Netanyahu's goal is to convince Trump that the U.S. should announce its withdrawal from the JCPOA on October 15, arguing that "Iran has violated its nuclear commitments," and in that case, Congress would impose further sanctions against Iran. Hours before the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, the U.S. warned at the annual conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency that if this body does not tighten its oversight of Iran's nuclear program, it will withdraw from the JCPOA. This warning was announced on Monday by Rick Perry, the U.S. Secretary of Energy. However, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, who was present at the Vienna meeting, accused the U.S. of making "unreasonable requests" regarding oversight of Iran's nuclear program and added that he is "confident that the Agency will resist these unacceptable demands and continue its fair role." Yukiya Amano, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated at the same conference that "the most rigorous and precise inspections are currently being conducted regarding Iran." Earlier, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, in its Sunday, September 17 issue, quoted "an Israeli official familiar with the JCPOA negotiations" as saying that the Agency has been slow in inspecting "suspicious sites" in Iran where nuclear activities are suspected. However, the Agency's spokesperson rejected this Israeli claim and emphasized that this body has access to a lot of information and sites in Iran, and the ability to verify Iran has significantly increased. Meanwhile, according to Haaretz, while Netanyahu is trying to push for the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, a significant portion of American advisors and senior officials oppose this view and consider it detrimental to U.S. interests. The newspaper also reported last week that many Israeli intelligence agencies disagree with Netanyahu and his defense minister's push for the U.S. to withdraw from the JCPOA. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, warned the U.S. on Sunday that "any wrong move in this matter will face a reaction from the Islamic Republic." Also, according to CNN, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani emphasized in an interview with Christiane Amanpour in New York, which aired on this network on Monday, that "a potential U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA would have a high cost for them." Rouhani expressed the opinion that "the Americans do not want to pay such a cost; especially for something that brings them no benefit and will lead to distrust regarding the U.S. in the world." According to CNN, the Iranian President also stated in his conversation with Christiane Amanpour that the U.S. is currently involved with North Korea and "if it withdraws from the agreement with Iran, what guarantee can it give to North Korea that it can hope for an agreement with the U.S.?" In recent days, Rouhani has asked Europe to send a message to the U.S. about preserving the JCPOA. Meanwhile, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French Foreign Minister, announced on Monday that preserving the JCPOA is "very vital," but negotiations are needed to strengthen this agreement after its expiration in 2025. In this context, the dispute between Iranian and American representatives over the Agency's inspection of Iranian facilities continues.