Trump on the Possibility of War with Iran: Anything is Possible

Donald Trump, the elected President of the United States, in an interview with Time magazine, which named him Person of the Year, stated that the possibility of a large-scale military conflict between the U.S. and Iran cannot be ruled out. On Thursday, December 13, in response to the question, 'How likely is a full-scale war with Iran?', he told Time, 'Anything is possible. Anything is possible. The situation is very unstable.' Mr. Trump added in this interview, 'You know, when I [left my presidency], we had Iranians who were not very threatening. They had no money. They weren't giving money to Hamas. They weren't giving money to Hezbollah.' He then responded to Time's question, 'Can I ask, did Elon Musk meet with the Iranians at your request?' by saying, 'I don't know if he met with them.' He continued in response to the question, 'It has been reported that he met with the Iranians,' stating, 'I don't know. He hasn't told me that.' The New York Times reported on November 15, citing its sources, that Elon Musk, the prominent entrepreneur and senior advisor to the elected President of the United States, met and discussed with Amir Saeed Iravani, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, but Iran denied this report. According to the U.S. government, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had previously attempted to assassinate Donald Trump; a claim that Iran has denied. Trump had previously threatened Iran regarding this matter. In his first presidential term, in 2020, Trump ordered an airstrike that resulted in the death of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force. Trump also withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed by Barack Obama in 2015 in 2018 and reimposed U.S. economic sanctions against Iran that had been reduced under this agreement. This agreement had limited Iran's ability to enrich uranium, which could lead to the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. On Wednesday, it was reported that Joe Biden, the President of the United States, approved a confidential national security memo that helps the incoming Trump administration prepare to deal with the increasing relations between Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. This document mentions the military and technological cooperation between Iran and Russia, including the provision of drones and missiles by Iran and the delivery of fighter jets from Russia to Iran. Trump stated on December 9 on the social media platform 'Truth Social' that Iran and Russia are in a 'weak position' and that these two countries, due to their 'current weak situation,' could not come to support the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. With the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term, his approach to Iran has drawn significant attention in Iran, the U.S., and the Middle East. Some analyses suggest that Trump, although opposed to military interventions and regime changes, is likely to seek to weaken the Islamic Republic through maximum pressure. Trump and his close associates, including members of his security and military cabinet, have been committed to seriously defending Israel and advocating for a firm stance against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, disputes over missile programs, regional policies, and oversight mechanisms of the JCPOA have become serious challenges. Iran's nuclear activities have also intensified, and reports indicate that the Islamic Republic is capable of producing the materials needed for a nuclear bomb in less than a month. Tensions between Iran and Europe have also increased, and the likelihood of activating the snapback mechanism under Resolution 2231 has fueled further disputes. Donald Trump has considered Richard Grenell as the special representative for Iran. This was reported on Thursday, December 13, by two sources close to the elected President of the United States to Reuters. Mr. Trump has not yet made any definitive comments about his policy towards Iran or his intended individuals in this regard. The elected President of the United States described Grenell as a 'star' who 'will rise to a very high position' in a social media post without mentioning Iran. However, Grenell himself, in a post on social media X, called Reuters' report about his selection as the special representative for Iran 'incorrect' without referring to details. According to one of the two sources who spoke to Reuters, whoever is appointed to this role is expected to negotiate with regional countries and beyond regarding Iran while also assessing Tehran's readiness for direct negotiations. Grenell served as the U.S. ambassador to Germany, special representative in the Serbia-Kosovo peace negotiations, and acting director of national intelligence during Trump's first term. After Trump's victory in last month's presidential election, Grenell was mentioned as a serious candidate for either the Secretary of State or special representative for Ukraine war, but these two positions were given to Senator Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg. Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of Iran, stated after Trump's re-election was confirmed that the Islamic Republic 'must manage its confrontation and relationship with the United States itself.' Given the increasing tensions between Tehran and European powers over Iran's nuclear program and the accelerated uranium enrichment in Iran in recent months, the position of 'U.S. Special Representative for Iran' will be more significant than ever.