Trump or Harris: Who is Tougher on Iran?

The question "Trump or Harris?" has created a political dichotomy among Iranians. Donald Trump is familiar to Iranians through his four-year presidency, while Kamala Harris is the current U.S. Vice President and entered the tight electoral race late following Biden's withdrawal. Many opponents of the Islamic Republic's government, both inside and outside Iran, consider Trump a better option for political change in Iran. Within the Islamic Republic's foreign policy apparatus, there are also individuals who believe results can be achieved with Donald Trump. Abbas Maleki, a former diplomat of the Islamic Republic, stated at the unveiling of the book "The Impact of U.S. Elections on Iran's Economy" that "I don't think Ms. Harris will do anything for us." He mentioned that if Trump becomes president, a commercial approach could yield results. With the launch of an electoral campaign in the U.S. named "Trump for Iranians," which has been welcomed by a group of Iranians inside Iran, it remains to be seen if the changes this group desires were fulfilled during Trump's presidency. This question has recently occupied many amid the confrontation between Iran and Israel. Many Iranians believe that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could be influential actors in Iran and the Middle East's future. Shahkar Binishpooyeh, a singer and songwriter residing in San Francisco, posted on his social media account, stating: "I will firmly vote for Donald Trump, for my homeland, for my people, for my dear Iran." Binishpooyeh, appearing on the weekly program "Paragraph One," claims that Trump is a better choice for Iran. According to this artist, who has recently performed protest songs in his artistic programs and held a ceremony to honor Empress Farah Pahlavi, Trump has proven himself and has weakened the Islamic Republic during his four-year term. The singer of the album "The Blood of Cyrus in My Veins" claims that Trump is not a politician but a successful businessman. He believes that if the Islamic Republic shows flexibility or "pays a bribe," Trump will engage in negotiations. However, Binishpooyeh believes that the rulers of the Islamic Republic will not engage in negotiations with Trump and will struggle in the quagmire they are trapped in. In describing his supported candidate, Binishpooyeh states that everyone knows Trump is not a perfect person, has no remarkable history in terms of humanitarianism, is somewhat misogynistic, and his policies regarding abortion are foolish; however, overall, his advantages over Harris regarding potential benefits for Iran are much greater. Following this, Kourosh Homayounpour, a senior member of George Washington University and a Democratic Party activist, states that the negotiations and agreements of the past twenty years have all been under Democratic presidents, especially the JCPOA. There was also a desire for these negotiations to continue under Biden's administration. This Democratic political activist considers Harris's recent statements, calling Iran America's greatest enemy and claiming that American blood is on Iranian hands, merely as campaign propaganda. Nima Kiavani, a member of the Iran Novin Party and a university professor who supports Donald Trump, raises the issue of the Republican candidate's return to his four-year presidency's maximum pressure policy. Kiavani believes that this policy imposed significant financial pressure on the "Iranian regime" and restricted its ability to assist its proxy forces. He states that the sanctions policy against the Islamic Republic during the Democrats' era only existed on paper and was not effectively implemented. He refers to the Biden administration's struggles to revive the JCPOA, which, according to this political activist, resulted in financial resources being made available to the "regime" and the sanctions being loosened. However, Homayounpour argues that the discussion of whether Republicans are tougher or Democrats is a superficial debate. According to this academic activist, both political parties in the U.S. have avoided direct confrontation with the Islamic Republic. He adds that Iran also avoids this confrontation, citing the "assassination of Qassem Soleimani," the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Tehran's response method as examples. Kiavani agrees with this political activist's remarks, reinterpreting both parties' policies as "avoiding regime change politics" and labeling such ideas as "wishful thinking." This Iran Novin Party political activist states that the killing of "terrorist Qassem Soleimani" was a very strong message to the government, and everything indicated that the continuation of Trump's administration could exert pressure on the regime. Kiavani attributes two characteristics to Donald Trump that he believes make him similar to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: one is that he is smart and unpredictable. Homayounpour states that Trump's policy of withdrawing from the JCPOA was contrary to achieving what he called a great deal, which gave the Islamic Republic a free hand in uranium enrichment and reaching nuclear weapons. Homayounpour believes that "unpredictable" people are, in his words, "foolish."