Trump's Phone Conversations with Putin and Zelensky; Beginning of Peace or Concessions to the Kremlin?

Following a phone call between the U.S. President and the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, officials from the three countries report a 'serious beginning of the peace process.' Donald Trump spoke for about an hour and a half with Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, February 24, Moscow time, and subsequently contacted Volodymyr Zelensky. He assessed both conversations as 'very positive' and expressed confidence that peace negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine would be 'successful.' Trump has asked Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor, and Steve Wietkaf, U.S. Special Envoy, to lead negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. The absence of Keith Kellogg, U.S. Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, from this group immediately caught analysts' attention. Reports indicate that the removal of this American official, who emphasized the necessity of arming Ukraine and strengthening its position in upcoming negotiations, was 'at the request of the Kremlin.' Meanwhile, European leaders have issued a joint statement calling for the consideration of Europe's and Kyiv's position in any agreement between Washington and Moscow to end the war. They emphasized their determination to continue supporting Ukraine until a fair and lasting peace is achieved. Many media outlets reported on Russia's 'excitement' and a 'dark day for Ukraine.' Trump announced progress in ending the war following his phone call with Putin. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, described the phone conversation between Trump and Putin as 'very significant,' especially since the leaders had not communicated for a long time. He claimed that the Biden administration wanted to continue the war, but 'the current government seeks to take all necessary actions to establish peace,' which he stated is 'desirable for Russia,' emphasizing Moscow's readiness to negotiate with Washington. Peskov confirmed that Putin invited Trump to visit Moscow but refrained from announcing a specific date or agenda for the first negotiations between the two leaders, neither confirming nor denying reports about Saudi Arabia as a potential meeting location. The Kremlin spokesperson also left unanswered questions from reporters about whether Yuri Ushakov, an assistant to the Russian President, or Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, would lead the Russian negotiating group. Steve Wietkaf, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, who recently flew to Moscow to deliver an American prisoner, reportedly spoke with Putin for 'three and a half hours' and stated that 'Mr. Kirill was an important mediator.' Reports indicate that Dmitriev has friendly relations with Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, and Katerina Tikhonova, Putin's daughter. In recent days, multiple reports have emerged speculating about consultations between Trump and Putin before Wednesday. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, avoided confirming or denying this matter and ridiculed the concerns of European leaders, claiming they 'forgot that politics means civilized negotiations.' He described the phone call between Trump and Putin as 'a conversation between two polite and friendly individuals.' Trump stated that the U.S. should take back its aid money from Ukraine. Kremlin-affiliated newspapers and national television networks, the main political propaganda tools in Russia, unanimously welcomed Trump's phone call with Putin and the U.S. President's remarks about potential scenarios for Ukraine. Yevgeny Popov, a television presenter who was sanctioned during Biden's presidency, claimed, 'Wow! Donald Trump is dismantling the Western world, and this is exactly what Russia has always wanted.' Conversely, some political analysts have called for caution. Sergey Markedonov, an international affairs expert, assessed the upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Russia as 'very difficult,' adding, 'Even with Trump's help, Putin cannot achieve what he wants in Ukraine.' Dmitry Kolzov, a political analyst, also wrote, 'Putin's emphasis on eradicating the reasons that led to the war repeats his statements from three years ago and means he sees himself in the best position for negotiations; the problem is that this position will not satisfy Trump.' Since Wednesday, the value of the ruble and the stocks of major Russian companies have significantly increased. In Kyiv, the Ukrainian presidential office stated that Trump and Zelensky discussed pathways to achieve sustainable peace and Ukraine's industrial capabilities, including drone production and other military equipment. While this phone call coincided with the Ukrainian President's meeting with Scott Bentsen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, it was emphasized that 'new agreements in the fields of security, economy, and minerals' will continue. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian President stated in his daily video message, 'We believe that alongside the U.S. and our other allies, we can force Russia to peace.' Ahead of Zelensky's trip to the Munich Security Conference, which he believes is another opportunity to convince allies of the necessity to support his country, the prevailing concern in Kyiv is that 'the fate of Ukraine may have been determined during the phone call between Trump and Putin.' Alexander Merzhko, head of the International Relations Committee in the Ukrainian Parliament, told the Ukrainian section of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 'It is logical that since Ukraine has been targeted by military aggression from Russia, democratic countries support Ukraine, but the U.S. President always talks about casualties in Russia and Ukraine and speaks of both sides' willingness for peace.' He continued, 'If Putin is in favor of peace, he can order the war to end, but Putin seeks to have Ukraine and Europe accept his demands. Trump's call with the Kremlin, which has effectively halted Putin's international isolation, strengthens the Russian President's expectations for the realization of his demands.' Ukrainian analysts are highly skeptical about the new U.S. government's intentions to access Ukraine's rare mineral resources. The editorial board of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya,' one of Ukraine's leading newspapers, wrote, 'Such an agreement means that the U.S. is not a supporter of democracy in Ukraine but wants to profit from Ukraine's problems, which have been weakened by the war with Russia.' The plan to 'exchange Ukraine's rich natural resources for U.S. military aid' was proposed by the Ukrainian President after Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. From Kyiv's perspective, this plan was supposed to guarantee the continuation of U.S. assistance for the liberation of occupied areas, but about half of these rare materials' reserves are in territories occupied by Russia. Senior Ukrainian officials state that Kyiv needs strong security guarantees to end the war. However, Donald Trump, the U.S. President, claims that the U.S. should take back its aid money from Ukraine. He also stated that 'it is possible that Ukraine may one day become part of Russia,' deeming the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity unlikely. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also called the restoration of Ukraine's borders to 2014 'impossible' and opposed Ukraine's membership in NATO, but emphasized that this does not mean that the U.S. is betraying Ukraine. The non-membership of Ukraine in NATO and the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces plus Crimea to Russian territory are among the Kremlin's main demands.