Turkey Elections: Challenges and Prospects

On June 7, the Republic of Turkey will witness a crucial parliamentary election, the results of which will not only transform the domestic political landscape but also significantly impact major regional events such as the Syrian crisis. Domestically, if the Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins and secures 330 out of 550 parliamentary seats, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can realize his primary goal of changing the political system from a parliamentary to a presidential one. To achieve this goal, Erdoğan needs to obtain two-thirds of the parliamentary seats in the upcoming elections. Although 30 parties are participating in the June 7 elections, the main players are the AKP, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) with leftist tendencies. According to existing polls, the results show little difference from previous elections, with the AKP expected to receive between 40% to 45%, the CHP between 25% to 29%, and the MHP between 15% to 19% of the votes. However, a significant and fundamental change in the upcoming elections is how the Kurds participate. In the previous elections, Kurds ran as independent candidates and, despite accusations of being supported by Abdullah Öcalan's organization, they managed to enter parliament. For the upcoming elections, Turkish Kurds have decided to enter as a political party without independent candidates. The PKK has also stated, 'No Kurd has the right to vote for anyone other than the HDP.' This statement implies that Kurds should not vote for Kurdish members of the AKP who are running in Kurdish regions. This could be a significant political gamble for Kurds, resulting in either gaining around 55 seats in the future parliament or losing all their seats. According to Turkish election law, any party entering the election must obtain at least 10% of the total votes nationwide; otherwise, their votes will be distributed among the winning parties. This political gamble means that if the HDP fails to secure 10% of the votes nationwide, their votes will be divided between the AKP and others, resulting in the AKP gaining the most, repeating the results of the 2011 parliamentary elections. However, if the HDP wins more than 10% of the votes, the AKP will face fundamental problems and will not only be unable to achieve Erdoğan's goal of changing the political system from a parliamentary to a presidential one but will also struggle to form the next cabinet alone. The AKP has been the dominant force in Turkish politics since 2002, managing to form the government alone over the years. Many experts in Istanbul believe that the HDP securing 10% of the votes in the upcoming elections seems unlikely, but if it does happen, it could change the entire political equation both inside and outside Turkey. Therefore, it is not surprising that Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu accused opposition parties of 'uniting against the AKP.' Now, opposition parties are pinning their hopes on the Kurds reaching the golden 10% of votes and are seeking ways to stand against the AKP through this. The conditions for participating in elections in Turkey, according to Article 67 of the Constitution, state that every Turkish citizen has the right to independently or within a political party contest parliamentary elections, and no one can prevent Turkish citizens from running for election. Elections must be held under completely free and equal conditions, with judges overseeing the counting of votes and announcing results. The entire election process is carried out by the 'Supreme and Independent Election Committee,' and state and non-state entities have no right to interfere in this process. Article 68 of the Turkish Constitution emphasizes that political party activities are an inseparable part of political activity in the country, and every Turkish citizen, male or female, can freely establish a political party, join a party, or voluntarily leave a party. However, to enter or establish political parties, the applicant must be at least 30 years old. According to this article, the voting age in Turkey is 18. Those who cannot run for parliamentary elections, according to Article 76 of the Turkish Constitution, must not have any of the following conditions: 1- Those with primary education or lower. 2- Those who have not completed military service. 3- Those banned from working in government offices. 4- Those involved in infamous acts such as bribery, theft, rape, embezzlement, fraud, abuse of religious beliefs, and declaring false economic bankruptcy. 5- Those involved in smuggling. 6- Those with a history of corruption in tenders or sales. 7- Those convicted for disclosing government secrets. Judges, government employees, judicial staff, members of higher education institutions, and individuals affiliated with military institutions cannot run for election unless they have resigned from their positions. The nomination process for each party or independent individual requires submitting a request to the 'Supreme Election Committee,' and if the candidacy is rejected, there is no right to appeal since this committee is the only authority to address candidacy issues based on official documents concerning the applicant or the candidate party. Typically, individuals or parties that have previously been convicted based on official documents do not nominate themselves. Political parties introduce their candidates to the Supreme Election Committee in two ways: either through a letter from the party leadership announcing the candidates' names or by holding an internal election within the party to nominate selected individuals. The vote counting process begins at 7 AM and ends at 4 PM, immediately followed by the counting of votes in the presence of party representatives and independent candidates. According to Article 79 of the Turkish Constitution, preliminary vote counting is prohibited. Once the vote counting is completed in each district, the results are confirmed on official documents signed by the representative of the Supreme Election Committee and are immediately communicated to the central office of the Supreme Election Committee. This committee announces the names of each of the elected representatives to the Turkish Parliament's secretariat, and afterward, the head of the Supreme Election Committee announces the final results in the media. According to Article 80 of the Turkish Constitution, members of parliament do not represent themselves or a specific group or region but represent the entire nation. If during their term a representative is convicted of a crime, no one can punish them unless their term ends. A resignation of a representative in the Turkish parliament is not accepted unless voted on by parliament members.