Turkey Elections; The Role of First-Time Voters May Be Decisive for Erdogan's Fate

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, faces his toughest political challenge this month: the presidential elections. The elections will take place three months after an earthquake in southern Turkey that killed over 50,000 people. According to Reuters, Erdogan's opponents feel they have the best chance to end two decades of his rule and change his policies. Erdogan has held the longest leadership in modern Turkey, defending religious piety and low bank interest rates domestically while supporting Turkey's influence in the region and weakening its relations with the West. Erdogan is considered the most powerful leader in Turkey since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk established the modern Republic of Turkey a century ago. He and his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party have moved Turkey away from Atatürk's original secular vision. Erdogan's main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is the leader of the secular Republican People's Party, supported by a coalition of six opposition parties. Under Erdogan, Turkey has showcased its military power in the Middle East and beyond, having invaded Syria four times, conducted offensive operations against Kurdish militants in Iraq, and sent military support to Libya and Azerbaijan. During this period, Turkey also experienced diplomatic conflicts with regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Israel, as well as a political deadlock with Greece and Cyprus over Eastern Mediterranean maritime borders, until it pivoted two years ago to rapprochement with some of its rivals. The purchase of air defense systems from Russia led to U.S. sanctions against Ankara. Erdogan's closeness to Vladimir Putin has raised questions about Turkey's commitment to NATO. Ankara's opposition to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership requests has also heightened tensions. However, Turkey has also brokered a deal for the export of Ukrainian wheat and Erdogan has potentially sought to end the war in Ukraine. The two main opposition parties, the secular Republican People's Party and the right-wing nationalist Good Party, have united with four smaller parties to reverse many of Erdogan's signature policies. They have committed to restoring independence to the central bank and reversing Erdogan's unorthodox economic policies. They also plan to return Syrian war refugees. They intend to improve relations with Western allies and restore Turkey's participation in the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program, which was blocked after Turkey's purchase of Russian missile defense systems. Erdogan's efforts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have failed, and the presence of about 3.6 million Syrian war refugees in Turkey has increased opposition to their presence during Turkey's economic hardship. The opposition has reiterated Erdogan's plans to return some refugees to Syria, but neither Erdogan nor the opposition has specified how they would do this safely and comfortably. The role of first-time voters in Turkey's upcoming presidential election is likely to be decisive. Reuters reports on a 22-year-old Turkish student who has only known one leader in Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, this student, named Yunus, says the time for change has come. Yunus is one of over 6 million voters who will vote for the first time in the elections on May 14 (24 Ordibehesht). If the elections go to a second round, they may be held again 14 days later on May 28. First-time voters make up about 10% of the electorate, and their votes could be crucial for determining whether Erdogan's rule continues into its third decade or comes to an end. Yunus has been a child since Erdogan came to power in 2003. He says he will vote for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Erdogan's opponent. In Yunus's view, Kılıçdaroğlu will strengthen the rule of law, human rights, and freedom of expression. Critics of Erdogan say these have suffered during his rule. Yunus mentions that he thinks twice before liking or sharing posts on social media because 'I am definitely concerned about freedom of expression. In fact, I experience this issue every day, but we do not realize it because we have gotten used to this way of life.' Human Rights Watch reported in 2022 that thousands of people in Turkey are arrested and prosecuted each year for content published on social media, often on charges such as defamation, insulting the president, or spreading terrorist propaganda. These sentiments pose a challenge for Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party. The party's popularity has been affected by the cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation as they try to boost support for Erdogan. Arman Baqerchi from the polling company Konda Araştırma stated that Erdogan's share of the votes among young voters and first-time voters is expected to be lower than among other age groups. He described young voters as a 'very angry and frustrated' segment of Turkey's 85 million population, noting that attracting them is crucial for the election outcome as they constitute a large voting bloc. Konda's polling surveys last year showed that 57% of first-time voters describe themselves as modern, 32% as traditional conservatives, and the rest as religious conservatives.