Turkey in Syria: From Preparing for Operations to a Golden Opportunity After Assad's Fall

The future of Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad is shrouded in ambiguity. In this context, many observers see the role of foreign countries as significant in the recent and upcoming developments in Syria, especially Turkey's influence, which is recognized as one of the most important supporters of the armed groups opposing Assad. With the diminishing influence of Iran and Russia in the political scene of Syria and as the country moves towards a new order and new balances are formed in the region, Turkey has become the most important player in this arena. What has been Turkey's reaction to events in Syria? In recent months, Turkish media reported that the country had twice prevented armed groups from attacking areas controlled by the Syrian government. According to these reports, these groups were prepared to carry out military operations in June and October, and a Turkish official recently stated that Turkey was aware of these operations six months prior but did not give any orders to these groups. Since December 9, the second day of the rebels' military operations in Syria, Turkey has adopted a position of non-intervention in the developments of this country, merely expressing its concerns about the future of Syria. However, many analysts consider Turkey's role in recent events to be prominent and describe it as the realization of the country's long-standing desire. Such a role first became apparent during the protests in Hama in 1981 when Turkish Islamists played a role in these protests. In the early 2010s, Turkey openly defended the necessity of Assad's departure. Now it seems that Turkish Islamists have achieved their long-standing goal of changing Syria's political regime. Hours after the collapse of Assad's regime, Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Foreign Minister, firmly stated at the 'Astana' meeting in Doha, Qatar, that 'all Syrian opposition groups must unite and form an inclusive government.' He described this collapse as an inevitable result of the Assad regime's inability to meet the people's needs and stated that the regime's reliance on illegal resources such as drug revenues and the displacement of half of Syria's population were the main factors behind its fall. Meanwhile, Joudet Yilmaz, Turkey's Vice President, emphasized the importance of sustainable peace and peaceful coexistence in Syria, linking the dignified and voluntary return of Syrian refugees to the establishment of security and improvement of economic conditions. Yilmaz also identified combating the threats posed by terrorist groups in northern Syria as one of Turkey's main priorities and added that Ankara supports the political transition process in Syria. Turkey's role in the new Syrian crisis: calculated gamble or high-risk? Idlib, a bridge for expanding Turkey's influence in Syria. Over the past eight years, forces affiliated with the Islamic Republic have controlled about 70 percent of Syrian territory, while Turkey has only engaged with the remnants of the civil war in parts of Idlib province. However, now, with Turkey's financial and moral support, the opposition groups have not only taken control of significant parts of Syrian territory but have also realized the 14-year dream of a large segment of the Syrian population for the fall of the Assad regime. In 2011, coinciding with the onset of protests in Syria, Turkish society and many officials showed little interest in the developments in this country. Even in libraries and academic circles in Turkey, there were limited resources about Syria, and there was little understanding of the political and social structures of this country. However, as the Syrian crisis expanded into Turkey and the presence of the Syrian political diaspora (migrants) increased in the country in recent years, extensive literature has emerged for a better understanding of the Syrian issue in Turkey. During this time, Assad's opponents held numerous meetings with Turkish officials, and close collaborations were formed. Turkey's increased awareness of Syria on one hand and Ankara's control over Idlib province and connections with various opposition groups on the other hand provided an opportunity for Turkey to expand its influence in Syria. In Idlib, in addition to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which is considered the most important opposition group in this region and has been on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations since 2018, other groups such as Haras al-Din, the Turkistan Islamic Party, and the Syrian National Army or Free Syrian Army were present. Turkey established close relations with these groups and provided extensive material support to the Free Syrian Army. Even though Turkey designated Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist group in August 2018, it maintained its cooperation and connection with this group. However, Turkey's influence in the Idlib region went beyond these connections. Ankara increased the dependency of the present groups on itself through economic and infrastructural actions, solidifying its role among Assad's opponents. For instance, Turkey expanded its electricity network to Idlib and supplied electricity to areas controlled by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. This action not only improved access to energy but also boosted economic activities and enhanced the quality of life in this region. Additionally, Turkish companies established telecommunications and postal services in Idlib, further linking this region with Turkey's economic infrastructure. The Bab al-Hawa border crossing, as a vital trade route between Turkey and Idlib, played an important role in facilitating the flow of goods and services. Furthermore, in June 2020, Idlib adopted the Turkish lira as its currency instead of the Syrian pound. This action, aimed at stabilizing the local economy, further increased Idlib's economic dependence on Turkey. How do authoritarian regimes like Assad's fall? Assad's fall, a golden opportunity for Turkey. On November 10, 2024, Erdogan signaled a new operation against Syria, announcing his intention to complete his security ring in this country. He made this threat after several requests to meet with Bashar al-Assad. Turkish officials have repeatedly emphasized that due to numerous threats from the south, they cannot fully pursue the development process in the country. Turkey's main concern is the presence of the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) on its southern border. Ankara considers this group to be affiliated with the PKK, an organization that has carried out many armed operations in Turkey. Turkish officials believe that YPG's dominance over northern Syria poses an 'existential threat' to Turkey's national security. Ankara has repeatedly recalled terrorist operations such as the bombing in Suruç in 2015 that resulted in the deaths of 33 people. They have also claimed that nearly 300 attacks from Syria into Turkey occurred in 2022 alone. It seems that Turkey is currently getting closer to its demands through opposition forces and especially its proxies like the Free Syrian Army. These forces, through sometimes bloody conflicts, have managed to push Kurdish forces away from the west of the Euphrates, as Turkey desired. There is also a possibility of continued conflicts in the east of the Euphrates, and no end to them is in sight. Another issue for Turkey regarding Syria is preparing conditions for the return of Syrian migrants. Turkey has spoken about the heavy cost of these migrants on its economy. There is no exact figure for Turkey's expenses for Syrian migrants. In 2017, the then Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey stated: 'The cost we have incurred for Syrian migrants is 30 billion and 285 million and 573 thousand dollars.' After the fall of Damascus, Turkish media published many images of this city showing people returning to their homes. On the morning of December 9, 2023, other images from the Turkey-Syria border in Idlib province were released, showing thousands preparing to return to their country. Turkish migration experts believe that these returns will occur relatively. They predict that in the short term, nearly one million of the more than two million Syrian refugees in Turkey will voluntarily return to their homes. Is Erdogan the architect of a new regional order? Some Turkish media report that the U.S. will make its decisions regarding Syria in full coordination with Turkey. Russia also has a similar view. On December 8, Russia requested Turkey's assistance for the withdrawal of its forces from Syria, and on December 9, the Kremlin announced that 'we will proceed in alignment with Turkey on the issue of Syria.' However, it does not seem that Turkey alone has been able to bring about these changes. Nedret Ersanlı, a Turkish journalist, states: 'This regime change was beneficial for the U.S., Israel, Russia, and the UK. Of course, Turkey also benefited from this change and achieved its demands.' Nevertheless, Turkey has now become an important figure in Syrian politics and seems poised to play a prominent role in the future of this country; as it has already secured part of its objectives. Despite these achievements, Turkish government officials have emphasized that they seek the establishment of democracy in Syria. However, it seems that Ankara does not have a very positive view of a potential federal structure in Syria. Mete Belkuşaklı, a political analyst, believes that Turkey opposes any federal structure that could grant autonomy to groups like the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), as this situation poses a threat to Turkey's border security. Furthermore, such a change could exacerbate ethnic and sectarian divisions in Syria and lead to a new wave of migrants towards Turkey. These developments could also impact Turkey's domestic politics. Especially with inflation decreasing in the country, Erdogan could restore his image with successes such as the return of migrants and positioning Turkey as an influential global actor. It is not unlikely that the Justice and Development Party will hold early elections in such an atmosphere to ensure Erdogan's continued power.