Turkey: Iraqi Kurdish Leaders Ignored Advice and Made Miscalculations

The Turkish Foreign Minister states that the recapture of Kirkuk by the Iraqi central government forces shows that the leaders of the Kurdistan Region made a "miscalculation" during the referendum. On the other hand, the leader of the region has reiterated that independence is the "only way" to prevent violence against Kurds. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the Turkish Foreign Minister, said on October 18 during a press conference with his Portuguese counterpart that the Iraqi Kurdish leaders "made a miscalculation and did not listen to our advice." He added, "They thought [holding the referendum] would bring them more achievements. But nothing came of it. They thought they would unify the Kurds. Unfortunately, this created division among the Kurds of Iraq and left behind widespread chaos and disorder." Turkey has close relations with the leaders of the Kurdistan Region, but alongside Tehran, they had urged the leaders of this region to refrain from holding the referendum. The Iraqi central government, the United States, and the UN Secretary-General were also among the opponents of the referendum. Meanwhile, several other regional countries, such as Saudi Arabia, had also expressed hope that the referendum would be halted. Despite the opposition, the Kurdistan Region held the referendum, which led to the deployment of Iraqi government security and military forces as well as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to Kirkuk. Ultimately, this oil-rich region returned to Baghdad's control shortly after the arrival of Iraqi military forces, with little resistance from the Peshmerga. Masoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Region, stated on Tuesday that "what happened in Kirkuk was the result of unilateral decisions by certain individuals within a political current in Kurdistan, which caused the Peshmerga to retreat in the manner that everyone witnessed." Several analysts and experts in the region have also spoken to Radio Farda about the "coordination" among certain Kurdish political factions, the Iraqi government, and Iran's "mediation" during the retreat from Kirkuk. Barzani emphasized the need for the region's "independence". He previously stressed that independence is the ultimate guarantee of security for the Kurds. On Wednesday, he reiterated this point, referencing the tumultuous history of the Kurds in Iraq and the central government, the massacres and attacks during Saddam's regime, and other events, including the Yazidi massacres by the so-called Islamic State, stating that these demonstrate that "for the past 100 years, due to the denial of the rights of the Kurds, such issues have persisted." Barzani concluded, "We have ultimately concluded that independence is the only choice that will prevent past violence against our people from recurring." The Kurdistan Region of Iraq currently enjoys autonomy, with its internal security and borders with federal Iraq under the control of the Peshmerga and its own security forces. Barzani stated that the referendum was the "first step" for the "Kurdish people to express their views." However, reports have emerged following the Kirkuk events indicating the sensitive political situation of Barzani and his allies in the Kurdistan Region. For instance, the Associated Press reports that Barzani is now facing questions about whether insisting on the referendum and conducting it was worth the events and current outcomes, especially after losing the oil-rich region of Kirkuk. The Kurdistan Region's electoral commission announced on Wednesday, October 18, that parliamentary and presidential elections in the region have been postponed. Reports have also emerged indicating that no candidates have registered for the presidency of the autonomous government, and due to the proximity of the election date, there has not been enough time to prepare for the electoral process. Reports of the PMF's withdrawal from disputed areas have also surfaced. Rudaw news agency, based on local reports, states that the predominantly Shiite militia known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have withdrawn from disputed urban areas, including Khanqin, Shingal (Sinjar), and Jalawla. The PMF is supported by Iran, and many of its commanders are considered allies of the IRGC's overseas branch. Reports regarding their withdrawal from cities disputed between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad emerged after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called on all armed forces, except the army and federal police, to withdraw from urban areas of Kirkuk. However, it remains unclear whether this order includes other areas that have been seized by the central government forces. The Peshmerga forces have also announced that they have returned to the borders prior to the Islamic State's conquests and the occupation of Mosul by this group in 2014.