Turkey's Fear of a Kurdish Autonomous Region Forming in Syria

After a suicide attack in a predominantly Kurdish area in Turkey that claimed 32 lives, the Prime Minister announced that a suspect has been identified, likely an attacker linked to the Islamic State group. Ahmet Davutoğlu also rejected accusations that his country has implicitly supported Islamic State militants and that the recent attack was an unintended consequence of such support. Analysts have repeatedly warned in recent months about Turkey's approach to the so-called Islamic State and the risk of increased attacks within Turkey. Regarding Turkey's stance towards this group, Radio Farda sought the opinion of Cengiz Gunay, an analyst at the Institute for International Affairs in Vienna. The death toll from this attack was very high. What is your assessment of this attack in Turkey? I think such an event in Turkey is frightening. However, it was not surprising since the influx of crisis and bloody tensions from across the border in Syria into Turkey has been an issue that many analysts have warned about for a long time. This is not the first time we have witnessed an attack in Turkey. In the past, we have seen smaller attacks, such as a similar attack on a gathering of Kurds in Diyarbakir, which fortunately did not result in as many casualties as the attack on Monday. Considering the internal situation in Turkey and the challenges the Turkish government has faced with the Kurds over the years, aside from the issue of the spillover crisis in Syria, could the government have taken actions domestically to prevent such an attack? Several factors must be considered. Turkey is facing a difficult political process. After the recent elections, the balance of the political scene in Turkey has changed. The Justice and Development Party cannot form a government alone. Either a coalition government must be formed, which seems very difficult given the polarization of power, or early elections must be held. Another issue is the Syrian war, which plays a role in the increasing tensions within Turkey. I should remind you that a peace process between the Turkish government and the PKK had begun, which is now in a very difficult position due to the events in Syria. The Turkish government fears that developments across the border may lead to the formation of an autonomous region or an independent Kurdish state, and the Kurdish group active across the border has organic ties to the PKK. Therefore, all these factors must be taken into account. In recent months, the Turkish government has been criticized several times for not properly controlling its borders with Syria and for the movement of individuals linked to the Islamic State. What connection do you see between what you just explained and the Turkish government's shortcomings in border control? There is certainly a connection. However, it should be noted that controlling the entry of individuals into Turkey is not an easy task. The situation of controlling those going from Turkey to Syria has improved in recent weeks and months, but entry into Turkey is challenging because Turkey has opened its borders to refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war, and there are currently about two million refugees inside Syria. Determining how many of the individuals entering Turkey are linked to a terrorist group is very difficult. Another issue is that the Turkish government likely sees ISIS as a balancing force against the Kurds in northern Syria. This group was the last line of defense to prevent the advance of ISIS. This group created a fear in the Turkish government that their activities could lead to autonomy and independence along Turkey's borders. For this reason, Turkey adopted a controversial policy in this regard, equating the Kurdish People's Protection Units in Syria with ISIS. This approach contradicts the entire international community. This has been a foreign policy mistake for the Turkish government, separating it from the international community and the approach that shapes public opinion. Of course, after the recent attack, the Turkish government stated that it would do whatever is necessary against those responsible for this attack, but what impact will the approach you described have on Turkey's position in the international community in the long term? I think this approach has severely damaged Turkey's image in the international community and the West, as well as Turkey's relations with the United States. The Turkish government claims that the biggest problem is Bashar al-Assad, and we must fight him, and once Assad is gone, we will be rid of ISIS and the rest. This is not a realistic strategy. Assad has been cornered, and these extremist groups pose a threat to Syria, Iraq, even Jordan, and Turkey. I think the Turkish government believed that as long as we do not engage with them, they will not engage with us either. However, what yesterday's attack showed was that ISIS is ready to act against its enemies in Syria, who are the Kurds, even inside Turkey. Turkey somewhat turned a blind eye to everything as long as it was happening in Syria. Therefore, yesterday's attack was not only an attack against the Kurdish movement but also an attack against Turkey's stability and peace in this country, and the Turkish government sooner or later must reconsider its policy in this regard.