Twelve Questions Regarding the Why and How of Trump's Victory and Clinton's Defeat

A multitude of questions have arisen in the days following Trump's victory regarding the causes and reasons for his success and his rival's defeat. These questions mainly stem from the unpredictability of his election. As someone who has followed political and social developments in the United States for two decades and has traveled to urban and rural areas of 39 states (including rural areas of four states: Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in the last two weeks of the election campaigns multiple times) and spoken with people, I will attempt to answer twelve of them: 1. What was Trump's message that resonated? Trump's explicit message was that the ruling class in America was 'foolish', 'weak', and 'losers', which found a suitable echo among less educated and non-urban people. These people realized the weakness of their leaders when they saw the arrest of American sailors and the missile launches of the Revolutionary Guards' boats at American ships in the Persian Gulf on their television screens (as they were instructed to avoid confrontation with the bullies of the Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf). The benefit that other countries gained from trade and dealings with the United States (with a foreign trade deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars) was also a convincing reason for the foolishness of political leaders that Trump capitalized on well. The decline of the economic power of the United States was also cited as a reason for the country's loser status. 2. What happened at Trump's rallies? Trump knew where to go to excite his voters. He neither gave away free goods nor invited singers and musicians. He entertained ordinary people in their own language. Ordinary people felt like one of their own was sitting at their table and sharing their concerns. Tens of thousands attended each of his rallies across various regions of the United States. At these rallies, he mocked the foolish actions of politicians in the language of ordinary people. 3. Why did Trump's opponents mostly not take him seriously? Trump's opponents focused only on Trump and his weaknesses, not on his supporters and Trump's methods of engaging with them. Instead of paying attention to and taking his supporters seriously, they focused on Trump's personality and were defeated by his supporters. Trump was a celebrity and a showman, but when he ran for office, he represented a group, and his personality could not be reduced to just being a showman. 4. Did Hillary lose votes because she was a woman? The answer is a definitive no. Hillary made serious mistakes in her political career, such as using a personal server for her emails during her tenure as Secretary of State. She also made significant mistakes during her campaign: changing many of her positions to attract Sanders' supporters and distancing herself from the center and moderate positions, labeling half of Trump's supporters as 'basket of deplorables', fully aligning herself behind Obama while she could have also presented her own special views, displaying physical weakness and illness during the campaign, avoiding mentioning Islamism as a factor in terrorism, and finally having a relatively weak campaign team compared to Obama's team. The focus of Hillary's campaign was not her being a woman, which her opponents reacted to. Along about 300 miles (480 kilometers) of Route 15 (from North Carolina to Pennsylvania), one could only encounter dozens of Hillary's flyers, while thousands of Trump's flyers were visible. Hillary's campaign essentially ignored the people of these areas. In a country where rural and farming people vote for Joni Ernst as a senator from Iowa, one cannot attribute Hillary's lack of votes to voter misogyny. Ernst, with a background in military service and work in farming, managed to become the first female senator from a conservative state. There are many examples of Ernst in various states that are now in the Senate, House of Representatives, state legislatures, or in governor's mansions and city halls. 5. How much did the FBI director's letter play a role in Hillary's defeat? The impact of this letter, eleven days before the final election day, is undeniable, but it should not be exaggerated. The vast majority of those who decided to vote for Trump were mostly indifferent to both Hillary's issues and Trump's scandals. The regions and composition of voters for Trump in the election showed that even without the FBI director's letter, Hillary had little chance of winning. The Democratic Party's voting organization in this period failed to run a successful campaign to get party members to the polls (six million fewer than in 2012). Additionally, Hillary did not benefit from her husband's appeal in attracting ordinary people's votes. Adopting Sanders' socialist policies and his stance on opening pathways for citizenship for illegal immigrants severely harmed her. 6. Why did polls get it wrong at the state level? The gap between state poll results and election results was not due to last-minute changes in opinions or the scientific validity of the polls, but rather many voters (about 1 to 3 percent) were hiding their opinions about Trump. One or more polls may be wrong in certain areas, but almost all polls predicted Clinton's victory based on the electoral college to some extent. 7. Who or what can be blamed for Trump's rise? Some blame NBC and the producers of the reality show 'The Apprentice' for making him famous and giving him the opportunity to run for president; others blame Obama's treatment of him at the 2011 White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Obama made fun of him; some blame the severe divisions within the Republican Party; and others blame all media for giving him a platform. However, Trump's rise was due to a process beyond all of these: serious weaknesses in Obama's foreign policy, very slow economic growth, Americans' reluctance to see power transferred within one family, and the Democrats' single-minded behavior in dealing with issues like healthcare or immigration. To prevent authoritarian leaders from winning, leaders who rely on civil institutions and the legitimate demands of the people must not sacrifice their dignity for cultural relativism. Ordinary people in democratic and free countries perceive weakness, defeat, and foolishness when they see their leader bowing to the Saudi king, sending $1.7 billion in cash to an anti-American dictator on a private plane, sending private letters to the butcher of Iranian and Syrian citizens, or avoiding verbal support for democratic movements to avoid upsetting him. 8. Could Sanders have defeated Trump? Sanders' supporters in the Democratic Party or outside it believe that if Sanders had run against Trump, he would have won. This belief is incorrect. Those who voted for Trump were not socialists to be fooled by his quasi-socialist slogans (he did not give such slogans). Those who make such statements do not understand the aspirations of America's low-income classes. They want to be billionaires like Trump, not have the government pay for their insurance. Trump opposed universal healthcare in all his campaigns, explicitly stated he wanted to reduce taxes for the wealthy, and did not promise more government assistance to them than Sanders could offer to gather their votes. 9. Is Trump the American Ahmadinejad or Chavez? Trump is not the American Ahmadinejad or Chavez. His work history bears no resemblance to the military and security backgrounds of Ahmadinejad and Chavez. He did not promise free services and goods to anyone, and despite his bullying behavior towards rivals, he could not and will not be able to organize and mobilize a gang of thugs that rely on the military and security forces. Throughout the election campaigns, there is no record of Trump supporters disrupting Hillary's and Sanders' rallies, while disruptions were caused by Trump opponents at his campaign events. He is authoritarian and enamored with powerful leaders like Chavez and Ahmadinejad, but America fundamentally differs from Venezuela and Iran. Trump, despite his desires, cannot silence the media, shut down political parties, or close civil institutions. In the two consecutive nights after his victory, protests against him occurred in forty cities. On the night of his victory, dozens of comedians and late-night television hosts mocked him and his victory. Even if Trump wanted to, he could not become like Chavez, Ahmadinejad, or Putin. The U.S. judiciary is independent, and Congress, despite a Republican majority, will stand against Trump's excesses. 10. Could Trump have defeated Obama in 2012? Certainly not. Trump's rise was due to the shortcomings and weaknesses of the Obama administration, especially in the second term. ISIS terrorist operations in Europe and America during the second four years (and Obama's inaction and broken promises regarding Syria) and the continued acceptance of Syrian refugees significantly eroded trust in him and the Democrats. Additionally, in 2012, the majority of Americans still wanted to give a chance to an African-American president and did so. But Obama's opportunity was two terms, and Hillary seemed to be his third term. 11. Which social movement did Trump speak of during the campaigns? Trump constantly spoke of a social movement behind him in his rallies and interviews. This movement, which was not taken seriously by observers and analysts, had specific characteristics. In short, this movement was that of rural people, the uneducated, low-income individuals, and social conservatives against urban dwellers, educated individuals, the middle class, the wealthy, and cultural relativists—those who were tired of fighting for the rights of homosexuals to order cakes from any bakery, the rights of transgender individuals to enter any restroom, and the restriction of free speech on campuses due to 'safe spaces' for minorities and 'political correctness'. 12. Did Hillary lose or did Trump win? Both. Hillary did not perform successfully in her campaign (many Democrats and independents did not vote for her), and Trump exceeded general expectations in gathering votes. The fact that Trump won despite the Clinton family's party machinery and opposition from Republican Party leaders is a sign of his and his colleagues' realistic understanding of the political situation and acting accordingly.