Two American Officials: Iran Has Not Yet Decided to Change Its Nuclear Program

American officials believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran has not yet made a "decision" regarding the advancement of its nuclear program towards the construction of an atomic bomb. According to a report on Friday, October 20, by Reuters, a Biden administration official and another U.S. official told the news agency that there has been no change in Iran's nuclear program. The report indicates that despite Iran's recent strategic setbacks, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, and two unsuccessful attempts by Tehran this year to launch missile attacks against Israel, U.S. officials believe that Tehran has not decided to pursue the construction of nuclear weapons. Prior to the statements from the two American officials, one of whom is the spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, also stated earlier this week that the U.S. has not seen any documents indicating a change in the Iranian leader's decision. Burns referred to a decision attributed to Ali Khamenei, which reportedly distanced Iran's nuclear program from military pathways in 2003, and a religious fatwa is said to support this. The spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated that the agency assesses that the leader of the Islamic Republic has not made a decision to resume a nuclear weapons program. According to Reuters, this intelligence assessment may explain the U.S. opposition to any Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in response to Iran's missile attack on Israel on October 1. Joe Biden openly opposed Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear sites earlier last week but did not provide reasons for his stance. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the upcoming U.S. elections, and several other Republican figures criticized Biden's statements. Trump supported targeting Iran's nuclear sites by Israel. The escalation of the Middle East crisis and the Islamic Republic of Iran's support for its proxy groups, which have repeatedly targeted Israel with missile and drone attacks in recent months, is one of the topics of the U.S. presidential election campaign scheduled for November 6. The heavy blows that Israel has dealt to Hezbollah in Lebanon in less than three weeks, including the killing of its Secretary-General and dozens of other senior commanders of this key Tehran ally, have raised speculation among Western experts that Tehran may want to redirect its nuclear program towards military pathways to protect the existence of the Islamic Republic in light of its strategic setbacks. Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of national intelligence in the U.S., also told Reuters that the risk of a change in Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons is "greater than ever" and that if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Tehran may enter the path of nuclear weapon construction. However, Ms. Sanner noted that it would take a long time for such an event to occur. The Reuters report comes amid increasing media reports in Israel, the U.S., and around the world regarding the options Israel will choose in response to Iran's missile attack on Israeli territory. The Israeli security cabinet held a several-hour meeting from the evening of October 19 to the early morning of October 20, which Israeli media interpreted as a final approval of a military response to Iran's missile attack, but it is unclear what decisions were made in this meeting. Before the security cabinet meeting, Israeli media reported that following the latest phone conversation between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu on the evening of October 18, Israel is considering refraining from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. The Maariv newspaper in Tel Aviv reported on Thursday that the U.S. message to Israeli political officials regarding Washington's opposition to a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has restricted Israel's options for responding to Iran's missile attack on October 1. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., said on October 19 to Israel's Channel 14 that Americans are concerned about the consequences of an attack on Iran's nuclear and oil facilities and therefore "we may refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities this time." Mr. Oren added, "But next time, we will have much greater capabilities." Israel has assessed Iran's nuclear program as a vital threat to its existence for over two decades. The two rounds of missile attacks by Iran on Israel on April 14 and October 1 have strengthened these assessments in the country that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear warhead, it might one day use it against Israel's existence. In light of this heightened concern in Israel, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and a senior politician in the country, has pressured Benjamin Netanyahu's government to target Iran's nuclear facilities, as he stated that such an opportunity "only comes once every 50 years." Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz, and Yair Lapid, opposition leaders in Israel, have also supported such an attack against the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer, told Reuters that Iran still has "strategies" at its disposal to compensate for the setbacks of its proxy forces and the failures of its missile attacks against Israel, even without constructing a nuclear warhead.