Two Important Meetings for the U.S. President; What Decision Will Trump Make Regarding Iran?

Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington marks the first stage of significant developments that will shape the new U.S. foreign policy regarding the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the coming weeks, moving it somewhat out of the current ambiguous and speculative status. Although most observers believe that the Trump administration's relations with Tehran will certainly be 'different,' no one has yet been able to outline a general framework for placing Washington-Tehran relations within it. Following an unprecedented message to the Iranian people, Netanyahu, as the first foreign leader, announced that he would bring important proposals regarding Iran to Washington during his official visit to the U.S. The day before leaving Israel for the U.S., Netanyahu called an extraordinary meeting of his security cabinet to finalize the documents and proposed topics. It is expected that the issue of relocating the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the implementation of a new settlement plan in the 'occupied territories' (for the first time in 20 years), and the pursuit or abandonment of the two-state solution for Palestinians and Israelis will be discussed during Netanyahu's negotiations with Trump and his administration members, but the issue of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be at the forefront of their discussions. The Israeli Prime Minister considers the presence of Quds Force and the Islamic Republic in Syria a security threat. If the Islamic Republic's presence in Syria is solidified, maintaining its current influence in Iraq, which borders Iran, providing direct military assistance from Iran to Shiites in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian group Hamas via land will become very difficult. Netanyahu is likely to ask the U.S. President to seriously pursue the removal of the Islamic Republic from the equations related to Syria. Stopping the implementation of a plan to create 5,000 new housing units in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which the UN considers 'occupied territories,' in addition to accepting an indefinite delay in the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, is a cost that the Israeli Prime Minister can offer to the U.S. President in a quid pro quo deal. Another important topic for discussion is the nuclear agreement, which Netanyahu has previously expressed serious opposition to. Despite Mr. Trump's strong criticisms of the nuclear agreement, it does not seem that the U.S. intends to completely withdraw from its commitments related to the nuclear agreement at this time, as Ms. Mogherini, the senior EU diplomat, also received this assurance after last week's discussions at the White House. Instead, the Trump administration may reconsider the continuation of further concessions to the Islamic Republic, with the assurance that it will also have the support of Congress. Among the concessions that could be reconsidered is the design of the Arak heavy water reactor by the U.S.; a plan that was supposed to be implemented under Iranian supervision by China after its completion. Monitoring the precise implementation of Iran's commitments, including missile tests that the current U.S. government, France, and the UK (in addition to Germany as a member of the 1+5 group) consider contrary to the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, as well as keeping Iran's enriched uranium levels at the designated level, are among the low-cost actions that the Trump administration is ready to hear Netanyahu's solutions about. Last month, the Islamic Republic announced the testing of advanced centrifuges beyond the current generation installed in Natanz and stated that it was preparing to produce and use a sufficient number of centrifuges to achieve a capacity of 120,000 separative units of uranium isotopes. In the new U.S. administration and the current changed political conditions, two areas of Iran's nuclear activities may face a completely ambiguous situation. The mutually agreed solution between the U.S. and Israel regarding the Tehran government could involve the initial application of 'permissible pressures' against the Islamic Republic and forcing the Iranian religious government to 'commit violations,' and subsequently increasing retaliatory punitive pressures - placing the Islamic Republic in a vicious circle and gradually increasing internal and external pressures while gradually garnering support from Western European allies for imposing restrictive measures against Iran. If there is a significant reduction or complete cessation of the Islamic Republic's military presence in Syria, changing the nature of Hamas using Mahmoud Abbas's model in the West Bank, and also containing Hezbollah, which has sustained heavy losses in the Syrian civil war over the past three years and has effectively weakened, Netanyahu could agree to begin negotiations on examining ways to implement the step-by-step plan for creating a Palestinian autonomous state alongside Israel. After Netanyahu's visit to Washington, another important meeting for Trump will be with Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. Although the resignation of Michael Flynn, the White House National Security Advisor, due to his disclosed conversations during the transition period in Washington with the Russian ambassador may somewhat affect the timing of the Trump-Putin meeting and the process of their discussions, this meeting is expected to take place before the G20 conference in Hamburg this July. In addition to U.S.-Russia bilateral relations, the status of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, of which Michael Flynn is considered the first political victim in the U.S., the situation in Eastern Ukraine, the war against Islamic extremists in the Middle East and North Africa, the Syrian civil war, and finally the issue of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be on the agenda of these negotiations. From Iran's perspective, the significant issue in these negotiations is the status of the Islamic Republic, which could be the winner or loser of these talks. It has been said that Mr. Putin will try to convince Trump to continue U.S. commitments regarding the nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic during their discussions. Last week, the reputable Wall Street Journal published an article outlining a new scenario of Trump's attempts to separate Putin from the Islamic Republic with the aim of increasing pressure against the Tehran government; a strategy in which Israel could also play a significant role. Reducing sanctions against Russia undoubtedly entails accepting a cost that Putin can pay by agreeing to increase his share in combating ISIS in Iraq and weakening the Islamic Republic's presence in Syria. If comprehensive agreements are reached with Trump, another reward for Russia will be the preservation of its naval base in Tartus and continued presence in the Mediterranean region. In addition to the two political meetings mentioned, the adoption of two important decisions by the U.S. President could help outline the broad lines of the new Washington foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic: placing the Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorist organizations, as well as refraining from signing an executive order to lift sanctions against Iran at the end of their deadline in July this year. One of the risks of placing the Guard on the list of terrorist organizations is the cessation of cooperation of Quds forces in Iraq, changing the application of the so-called Popular Mobilization Forces, and the nature of combating ISIS without any military intervention by the Islamic Republic. The Guard and the political leadership of Iran cannot remain silent and refrain from retaliation against this action, although any form of retaliatory action, in any way and at any point, will practically invite further pressures against Iran - starting a cycle around a vicious circle.