Two US Officials in Conversation with Reuters: Iran Has Not Yet Decided to Build Nuclear Weapons

On Friday, October 20, Reuters reported, citing two American officials, that the Iranian government has not yet made a decision to build nuclear weapons. They told Reuters that the United States still believes that the Islamic Republic, despite recent strategic setbacks in Tehran, including the killing of Hezbollah leaders by Israel and two unsuccessful attempts to launch missile attacks on Israel, has not decided to pursue nuclear weapons. This statement was made by a senior official from the Biden administration and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), following previous comments by William Burns, the CIA Director, who stated, 'There is no evidence that the Iranian government has decided to build a nuclear weapon, and if such a decision is made, the US and its allies will likely know soon after.' According to the spokesperson for the ODNI, Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has currently not decided to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003. It has been suggested that intelligence assessments could help understand the reasons behind the US opposition to Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program in response to Iran's missile retaliation against Israel on October 1. Previously, President Joe Biden stated that he would not support Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran's nuclear sites, comments that faced severe criticism from Republicans. According to Reuters, American officials have long acknowledged that efforts to destroy the Iranian government's nuclear weapons program may only delay Tehran's attempts to produce a nuclear bomb and could even strengthen Tehran's resolve to do so. In recent weeks, the Israeli army has inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah Lebanon, the most powerful member of the Islamic Republic's proxy network. These setbacks culminated in the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in an Israeli airstrike. According to Reuters, Beth Sanner, a former US national intelligence official, stated that the risk of changing Khamenei's religious orders against nuclear weapons from 2003 'is now greater than it was' and that if Israel attacks nuclear facilities, Tehran is likely to advance in building nuclear weapons. She noted, 'They cannot acquire a weapon in one day. It takes many months.' Israel has not yet disclosed which facilities it will target in retaliation for last week's Iranian attack with over 180 ballistic missiles, which were largely intercepted by Israeli air defenses and also by the US military. American officials say that the US has privately asked Israel to exercise restraint to prevent the onset of a broader war in the Middle East. The US does not consider an attack on the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities an acceptable option for retaliation against Israel. Yossi Cooperwasser warned that there is a risk that the Islamic Republic could quickly move towards building nuclear weapons. Grossi mentioned 'signs of willingness' from the Islamic Republic to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. A Reuters report discussed which of the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities could be potential targets for Israel. Analysts assessed that Iran made a major strategic mistake in its missile attack. Biden stated at the General Assembly: 'We must ensure that the Islamic Republic never acquires nuclear weapons.'