U.S. Energy Information Administration: Iran's Oil Production Increased by Only 20,000 Barrels

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has assessed in a report that Iran's oil production has increased by only 20,000 barrels per day since the interim nuclear agreement until reaching a comprehensive nuclear deal. This report, published on Wednesday, September 9, states that from the beginning of 2014 until the first quarter of this year, Iran's crude oil production has remained around 2.8 million barrels per day, but in the second quarter, it only increased by 20,000 barrels per day. These figures only consider Iran's crude oil production. Sanctions against Iran are expected to be lifted by the end of this year. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration states that if the comprehensive nuclear agreement is implemented and sanctions against Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production will increase by an average of 300,000 barrels in 2016, most of which will occur in the second half of the following year. Meanwhile, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Iran's Minister of Oil, has repeatedly stated over the past month that as soon as sanctions are lifted, Iran's oil production will increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day, and this figure will reach one million barrels within five to six months. According to him, Iran is determined to increase its oil production to pre-sanction levels, which is 3.6 million barrels per day. The report adds that Iran's economy, along with domestic oil consumption, will have a positive outlook next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration further notes that the timeline for lifting sanctions remains uncertain. According to this assessment, the return of Iran's oil production to pre-sanction levels depends on several factors, including market demand, the condition of oil fields, and the necessary infrastructure for increasing oil production, as well as the pace of lifting sanctions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also states that global oil prices are not expected to exceed $60 per barrel by the end of next year. Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is about $44.45, and the price of North Sea Brent crude is about $47.77, which shows more than a twofold decrease compared to the first half of last year. For the third consecutive month, oil prices have decreased again, and according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the reason for this is the slow growth rate of the global economy, the increase of surplus oil in the market, and the possibility of increased oil exports from Iran. According to this report, Brent oil prices are expected to average $54 this year and $59 next year. The report also states that U.S. oil production in August decreased by up to 140,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, and this decline is expected to continue until the second half of 2016. For this year, U.S. oil production is expected to exceed 9.2 million barrels per day, and for next year, it is expected to be 8.8 million barrels per day.