U.S. Intelligence Agencies: Iran Remains the Most Prominent State Sponsor of Terrorism

U.S. intelligence agencies have presented their annual assessment of global threats in a report. It states that Iran continues to be the most prominent state sponsor of terrorism. Senior U.S. intelligence officials, including the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Director of National Intelligence, participated in a Senate committee meeting on Tuesday, December 24. Concurrently, a 28-page report titled 'Global Threat Assessment' signed by Dan Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, was released. The report emphasizes that Iran seeks to expand its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, viewing the conflicts in these countries as advantageous. Iran aims to exploit the fight against ISIS (Islamic State) to strengthen its allies and convert military victories into political, security, and economic agreements. The report also criticizes the 'unsafe and unprofessional' actions of Iranian speedboats in international waters, stating that this approach poses a threat to U.S. naval operations in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, it notes that Iran is the most prominent state sponsor of terrorism, providing advice, financial assistance, advanced equipment, and new tactics to terrorist groups across the Middle East, while establishing a network of operatives worldwide for potential terrorist attacks. Regarding Iran's internal politics, the report states that moderate and hardline politicians will increasingly clash as they pursue their respective policies for Iran's future. This rivalry will be a key factor in determining whether Iran's behaviors will change in a way that aligns with U.S. interests. The report indicates that moderates led by President Hassan Rouhani will continue to support more social progress, privatization, and greater global integration, while hardliners view such programs as threats to their political and economic interests and the revolutionary and Islamic nature of Iran. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's closeness to hardliners, he supports some of Rouhani's efforts to engage with Western countries and promote economic growth. The report predicts that Iran's economy will continue to rely on oil revenues. It states that widespread protests due to economic grievances in early January have drawn attention to the need for major reforms, but both Rouhani and his critics are likely to use these protests to advance their political agendas. Protests occurred in Tehran and over 100 cities in early January against the economic situation and government policies, with at least 25 reported deaths and thousands arrested. The report also mentions that Khamenei has faced health issues in recent years and is trying to preserve his legacy, likely opposing any moves to open up the political and economic space. Given the deteriorating relationship between Rouhani and Khamenei since the June presidential elections, Rouhani has attempted to improve his relations with both Khamenei and his allies, but this approach may jeopardize his reform agenda in the near future. Regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the report states that Tehran's public statements indicate its intention to maintain the JCPOA, viewing it as a tool to lift sanctions while preserving some nuclear capabilities. Iran is aware of U.S. concerns regarding the JCPOA but expects China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK to adhere to their commitments under the agreement. The report also notes that the JCPOA has increased transparency in Iran's nuclear activities, as the agreement and the granting of investigative powers to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have enhanced the agency's access to Iran's nuclear facilities. The report further states that Iran continues to develop and enhance a range of military capabilities aimed at targeting U.S. and allied military equipment in the region. The U.S. intelligence community emphasizes that Iran possesses the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Additionally, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are identified as primary cyber threats.