U.S. Intelligence Assessment: Unlike Russia, the Islamic Republic Aims to Prevent Trump's Return to Power

Voice of America English Section - Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran are likely to exploit the recent assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign in their ongoing influence operations aimed at affecting the U.S. presidential elections. The latest assessment from U.S. intelligence officials, shared on Monday, comes as these three countries have long been engaged in extensive campaigns aimed at influencing American voters and undermining their trust in U.S. democratic processes. This new intelligence assessment was made public less than 100 days before American voters participate in the presidential election on November 5, 2024. An unnamed U.S. intelligence official told reporters, "These actors are closely monitoring political developments in the United States, especially events that occurred this month related to the presidential race." He added that the intelligence community expects these actors to adjust their narratives to incorporate these events in their efforts to influence voters. U.S. intelligence officials stated that it is still too early to point to specific examples of how these three U.S. adversaries might utilize the assassination attempt on Trump or Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race and support Vice President Kamala Harris. However, they noted that while specific tactics used by U.S. adversaries are expected to change, their overall strategies and preferences remain consistent. Regarding Russia's motivations, a U.S. intelligence assessment shared earlier this month indicated that, similar to 2016 and 2020, Russia's influence efforts are focused on supporting Trump's candidacy. The latest intelligence assessment confirmed that this Russian effort is still ongoing. The U.S. intelligence official stated, "Russia's primary interest in this election is opposing candidates who want to assist Kyiv." He added, "We expect Russia's focus to remain on this (Ukraine issue)." Officials noted that, as in their previous assessment, China is being cautious in its intervention efforts, seeing little benefit from the election of any of the main candidates from either of the two major political parties in the U.S. However, unlike China, the Islamic Republic of Iran has decided to act in a biased manner in its interference efforts, aiming to damage Donald Trump's electoral campaign through its influence operations. This U.S. intelligence official told reporters, "Iran's preference essentially reflects its unwillingness to escalate tensions with the United States. Iran is opposing a candidacy that Tehran leaders believe would increase these tensions." Trump's campaign has previously dismissed strong statements from U.S. intelligence agencies claiming that Moscow seeks to boost the former president's chances, citing comments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin praising Joe Biden. Caroline Levitt, a spokesperson for Trump's campaign, said in an email to Voice of America, "When President Trump was in the Oval Office, Russia and all of America's enemies were deterred from malicious actions because they feared how the U.S. would respond." Russia and the Iranian government have also denied past allegations of interference in U.S. elections, and Chinese officials have stated that Beijing has "no intention" to interfere in U.S. elections. However, U.S. intelligence officials challenged and dismissed these denials from Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing in their latest assessment released on Monday. Another U.S. intelligence official told reporters that the number of instances of influence attempts or intervention threats marked for further investigation has more than doubled compared to previous election cycles. This official noted that part of the reason is that presidential elections attract more attention than midterm congressional elections. Nevertheless, the number of concerning "influence attempts" is expected to increase in the weeks and months ahead. Efforts to Conceal Influence Traces U.S. officials also expressed concern that Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran are intensifying efforts to conceal traces of their influence operations and "better hide their hands." Specifically, Russia and China are turning to marketing and public relations firms to prepare and disseminate their narratives for American audiences, potentially leading Americans to believe that these messages reflect the opinions of actual American voters. The first intelligence official stated, "These companies essentially present electoral influence [hidden] in a box." He added, "Moreover, they are more cunning and face fewer bureaucratic hurdles." Intelligence officials say Russia tends to use Russian companies while China is more inclined to rely on domestic Chinese firms. However, these officials noted that an increasing number of private companies are providing such services, including those with centers in the Middle East and Latin America. The first intelligence official stated, "Given the extent to which they are active in the U.S. and also abroad and in other elections and democracies, this issue has increasingly raised our concerns." However, the use of third-party companies, some of which are run by intelligence organizations in Russia and Iran, constitutes a small part of the overall influence operations. These intelligence organizations are also seeking to use Americans in more direct ways. According to the assessment from U.S. intelligence agencies, "Foreign actors continue to rely on both aware and unaware Americans to plant the seeds (of the desired narrative), promote, and lend credibility to narratives that serve the interests of foreign actors." For Moscow, this is not a new tactic, although officials noted signs that the Kremlin's efforts to use aware or unaware Americans have intensified. Similarly, as the Iranian government has stepped forward to engage with Americans protesting U.S. support for Israel in the war with the terrorist group Hamas, concerns about its contacts with Americans for use in influencing U.S. elections are increasing. Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic are not alone in their efforts to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential elections this fall. U.S. intelligence officials said on Monday that Cuba has also launched a "local influence operation" aimed at undermining political candidates opposing the communist government of Cuba. Officials stated that other countries are also conducting influence campaigns aimed at elections, and while their scope and scale vary, they all pale in comparison to the ongoing campaigns of Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The White House warns about the Islamic Republic's campaign to exploit the Gaza war and provoke protesters in America. The U.S. National Intelligence Agency has warned about the Islamic Republic's cyber campaign to exploit the Gaza war. The U.S. and U.K. warn of cyberattacks from Beijing; China, Russia, and the Islamic Republic are immediate threats. Germany summoned the Russian embassy's charge d'affaires to answer for "cyberattacks." The British domestic intelligence agency warns universities about security threats from Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic. The U.S. offers up to $10 million in rewards for information about three sanctioned Iranian hackers. U.S. security agencies: Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic have begun operations to influence the November elections. Microsoft: China uses fake accounts to alter important election results in its favor. The U.S. intelligence community: the Islamic Republic is a "regional threat" and a "driver of widespread malicious activities." Ten million dollars reward for information about the Islamic Republic's "cyber actor." The FBI chief warns about the use of artificial intelligence to interfere in U.S. elections.