U.S. Intelligence Community: Iran as a Growing Military Supporter of Terrorism

On Tuesday, February 13, senior managers of the U.S. intelligence community presented their 2018 assessment of global threats to Congress. Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, was the main presenter of this 28-page assessment. The U.S. intelligence community's assessment, which focuses on both global and regional threats, states in its introduction that the risk of war between countries worldwide, including major powers, is rising to levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. The report identifies North Korea as an immediate regional threat for the coming year and highlights the ongoing proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, emphasizing the threat posed by the use of weapons of mass destruction by countries and non-state actors. It also states that "tensions among many countries will escalate, and the threats posed by Sunni extremist groups will transform as they regain strength following military defeats in the Middle East." Regarding cyber threats, the report indicates that the largest cyber threats to the U.S. in the coming year will come from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. "These countries use cyber operations as a low-cost tool, and in the absence of explicit responses to such operations, it is expected that the three mentioned countries will continue this practice to achieve their strategic goals." The report's authors note: "Based on our assessment, Iran will continue its efforts to infiltrate U.S. and allied networks for espionage and intelligence gathering to prepare for potential future cyberattacks, although Iranian intelligence agencies primarily focus on their enemies in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel." Weapons of Mass Destruction, the JCPOA, and Iran's Missile Program The report also states that countries' efforts to modernize, develop, and acquire weapons of mass destruction, guidance systems, and the technology necessary for their production pose a major threat to the security of the U.S. and its allies. Countries and non-state actors have demonstrated the use of these weapons in Iraq and Syria. Additionally, the materials and technology necessary for producing chemical and biological weapons, which often have dual peaceful and military uses, are readily available in global markets. Access to and use of experts and scientific specialists for designing and producing such weapons is also not difficult. The report addresses Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), stating: "Statements from Iranian officials indicate that they wish to maintain the JCPOA and view this agreement as a means to lift sanctions and preserve some of their nuclear capabilities. Iran is aware of U.S. concerns regarding the JCPOA but expects China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK to adhere to the agreement. The report's authors believe that ISIS will reorganize itself in Iraq and Syria in the coming year and, with an increased global presence and propaganda of its mission, will plan a series of attacks internationally, encouraging its members and supporters to carry out attacks in their home countries. The U.S. intelligence community report states that the JCPOA has increased transparency in Iran's nuclear activities as the Additional Protocol has enhanced the access of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iran's nuclear facilities. The report further adds that Iran's ballistic missile program has increased its potential to target existing sites in the region and that Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. "Tehran's desire for deterrence against the U.S. may lead Iran to develop intercontinental missiles. Iran's advancements in its space program, such as the launch of the Simorgh satellite carrier in July 2017, could pave the way for achieving intercontinental missiles since the technology used in satellite launch vehicles is not significantly different from that required for producing intercontinental missiles." Terrorism and Iran's Support for Terrorist Groups The aforementioned report states that violent extremists, primarily from ISIS and al-Qaeda, continue to pose a terrorist threat to U.S. interests and its partners worldwide, and from the perspective of domestic violent extremists, the terrorist threat posed by Sunni individuals residing in the U.S. is the most pervasive and, at the same time, the most challenging to identify, despite a decrease in their attacks in 2017. The report's authors believe that ISIS will reorganize itself in Iraq and Syria in the coming year and, with an increased global presence and propaganda of its mission, will plan a series of attacks internationally, encouraging its members and supporters to carry out attacks in their home countries. The U.S. intelligence community report states: "Iran remains the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial support, advanced weapons, tactics, and advice to terrorist groups across the Middle East and assembling a network of operatives globally to carry out terrorist attacks." "Iran and its strategic partner, Hezbollah, also pose a long-term threat to the U.S. and its partners worldwide." Middle East, "Threats," and Iran's Military Capabilities According to this report, Iran will expand its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, where the war is progressing in its favor, and will seek to strengthen its cooperation with these countries by exploiting the war against ISIS and leveraging its battlefield achievements for political, security, and economic agreements. Iran's support for Hashd al-Shaabi and Shiite militants is considered the most significant threat to U.S. military personnel in Iraq. It is expected that, given the statements of some Iran-backed groups regarding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and the rising tensions between Iran and the U.S., Iran's threats against the U.S. will intensify with the retreat of ISIS. Regarding Syria, the U.S. intelligence report states that Iran, while seeking to strengthen its influence in Syria, intends to prevent U.S. military forces from establishing themselves in the country. Iran-backed forces aim to seize control of the Syria-Iraq border and deploy regime-supporting elements and Iraqi allies in these areas. Iran's retaliatory attack by launching missiles against ISIS positions in Syria following the group's attacks in Tehran last June [the attack on the Parliament and the tomb of Ayatollah Khomeini] was likely aimed, in part, at demonstrating Iran's growing military capabilities to the U.S. and its allies. "Iran seeks a permanent military base in Syria and likely aims to establish a network of foreign Shiite fighters to counter future threats against itself in Syria. Iran is also pursuing economic agreements in telecommunications, mining, and electricity network restoration with Damascus." The report states that Iran's support for the Houthis in Yemen significantly threatens U.S. partners' interests in the region. Iran's support for the Houthis has enabled them to carry out attacks against shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and target locations deep in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, including launching ballistic missiles against Riyadh on November 4 and December 19 [2017] and firing cruise missiles on December 3 of the same year against an unfinished nuclear reactor site in Abu Dhabi. The report regarding Iran's military power states that the country will enhance its ability to threaten U.S. forces and its allies in the region, and its unsafe and unprofessional encounters pose risks to U.S. naval operations in the Persian Gulf. According to this report: "Iran continues to develop and enhance a range of new military capabilities to target U.S. and allied military positions in the region, including drones, ballistic missiles, advanced naval mines, unmanned suicide boats, submarines, and advanced torpedoes, as well as anti-ship and ground-target cruise missiles. Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East and can strike targets up to 2000 kilometers away from its borders. The delivery of S-300 systems by Russia to Iran in 2016 has equipped the country with the most advanced air defense systems." In another section of the report, it states that the operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pose a threat to the U.S. Navy, although most of the IRGC's behavior towards U.S. ships is professional. The document continues: "The aggressive behavior of IRGC naval units in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk to the U.S. Navy. While most of the IRGC naval units' encounters with U.S. ships are professional, the U.S. Navy recorded fourteen instances of unsafe or unprofessional encounters with the IRGC by mid-October 2017. The last encounter was in August of the previous year when an Iranian drone approached the USS Nimitz at night while aircraft were landing and taking off from the carrier's deck." The report also states: "In 2016, the U.S. Navy recorded thirty-six such encounters, and in 2015, twenty-two, most of which were caused by IRGC naval units. It is expected that such encounters, although they have recently decreased, will continue in the future with the aim of showcasing the IRGC's power and possibly assessing the U.S. response." The report concludes: "Khamenei has struggled with health issues in recent years and is likely to oppose Iran's move towards a more open political and economic space in an effort to preserve his legacy. Following the deterioration of relations between Rouhani and Khamenei after last June's presidential election, Rouhani has sought to improve his relations with Khamenei and his allies, but in doing so, he risks failing to advance reforms in the near future." Iran and Domestic Issues This section of the report states that the confrontation between moderate and hardline politicians in Iran to establish their competitive views on the country's future will intensify. This competition will be a key factor in determining whether Iran will change its behavior in a way that aligns with U.S. interests. Moderates led by Hassan Rouhani will continue to support greater social progress, privatization, and increased global integration, while hardliners will view this agenda as a threat to their political and economic interests and to the revolutionary and Islamic nature of Iran. This report notes that Khamenei's views are increasingly aligned with those of hardliners, yet he has supported some of Rouhani's efforts to engage with Western countries and promote economic growth. According to the U.S. intelligence community's forecast: "The outlook for Iran's economy, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues, hinges on implementing reforms to attract investment, strengthen privatization, and grow non-oil industries, which Rouhani will continue despite hardliner concerns." The document also states: "Nationwide protests related to economic grievances in Iran earlier this year have drawn greater attention to the need for major reforms, but it is likely that Rouhani and his critics will use these protests to advance their political agendas." The report concludes: "Khamenei has struggled with health issues in recent years and is likely to oppose Iran's move towards a more open political and economic space in an effort to preserve his legacy. Following the deterioration of relations between Rouhani and Khamenei after last June's presidential election, Rouhani has sought to improve his relations with Khamenei and his allies, but in doing so, he risks failing to advance reforms in the near future."