U.S. Military Aid to Israel; Why a Day of Suspension and a Day of New Packages?

Various reports have emerged regarding the shipment or suspension of U.S. military supplies to Israel, as tensions between the White House and Benjamin Netanyahu's government over Israel's policy in the Gaza war have reached an all-time high. These reports indicate a day of halting military shipments and another day confirming the sending of more arms packages to Israel. But what is the story, and how can we analyze this White House policy? Since the beginning of the Hamas group's attack on Israel, President Joe Biden has tried to stand by Tel Aviv despite the evident disagreements between him and Netanyahu. However, during this time, the U.S. President has repeatedly condemned the heavy bombardment of civilians in Gaza. While Biden faces unprecedented pressures from Arab Americans, Palestinian supporters, as well as youth and students to change his policy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he is simultaneously under pressure from Republicans, congressional supporters of Israel, and Jewish lobbies for more support for Israel. As a result, it seems he is trying to maintain a difficult balance that will not be easy to sustain in the long term. Disagreements between the U.S. and Israel regarding the timing of planning for Gaza's future governance Biden halted the shipment of heavy bombs to Israel last week and then threatened that if Netanyahu conducts a major operation in Rafah, where over a million people have taken refuge, he would be deprived of additional aggressive assistance from Washington. However, the process of approving the shipment of American weapons to Israel continues uninterrupted. This includes a $1 billion aid package consisting of heavy munitions such as tanks, tactical vehicles, and mortar shells, which the Biden administration informed Congress about on Tuesday, May 25. Biden also emphasized that the U.S. would continue to provide defensive weapons, including to strengthen Israel's Iron Dome air defense system. Given this, what munitions has Biden halted, and what is still being sent to Israel? What has been halted? The Biden administration decided to stop a shipment of 3,500 bombs, including 1,800 900-kilogram bombs and 1,700 225-kilogram bombs, to Israel in late April of this year. Washington officials were concerned that Israel would use these bombs, especially the 900-kilogram ones, in its attack on Rafah, and given the impact of this massive weapon in a dense urban environment, the consequences could be catastrophic. Subsequently, Joe Biden threatened Netanyahu in a phone call that military assistance from Washington to Israel would be determined by assessing Israel's actions in protecting civilians, aid workers, and addressing humanitarian issues in Gaza. Biden also explicitly stated in an interview with CNN that civilians in Gaza have been killed by these bombs, and he informed Netanyahu that if attacks in Rafah target populated areas, he would no longer receive support from the White House. However, these bombs are usually attached to a guidance kit that turns them into smart weapons capable of hitting precisely the intended target. The New York Times reported that the Biden administration is likely to prevent the transfer of these guidance kits to Israel, which convert bombs into smart and precisely guided munitions. What does the new aid package include? About a week after announcing the suspension of these American munitions shipments to Israel, the Associated Press reported that the new weapons aid package from the White House to Israel, valued at approximately $700 million, is finalized to supply tanks, $500 million for tactical vehicles, and $60 million for mortar shells. This package, which is processed through the U.S. State Department, is a routine procedure that typically occurs between the U.S. government and a foreign government, which generally has a more complex and lengthy process and, after approval by the government and Congress, the delivery of these weapons may take months or even years. Congressional and White House disagreements Meanwhile, many U.S. lawmakers, especially Republicans, are dissatisfied that they were kept in the dark regarding the decision to suspend shipments to Israel. Congressional representatives and media in the U.S. have recently criticized the government's lack of public communication about arms sales to Israel. Since October 7, the Pentagon has only informed twice, on December 9 and 29, about the approval of emergency arms sales to Israel, while military equipment sent to Ukraine is reported regularly and daily. Given the disagreements between the government and Congress, the White House is trying to keep some of its decisions as far away from congressional knowledge as possible, especially since some of them do not legally require congressional approval due to budgetary constraints. The U.S. House of Representatives voted against Biden to prevent the suspension of military arms shipments to Israel. These disagreements led to the U.S. House of Representatives voting on Thursday, May 27, on a bill titled 'Support for Security Assistance to Israel,' which aims to prevent the Biden administration from halting arms shipments to Israel. This bill, however, faces a difficult path to becoming law and may be rejected in the Senate, but it is seen as a symbolic action reflecting the disagreements between Congress and the White House on this issue. What is the current situation? The United States has been the main supplier of advanced weapons to Israel for several decades. According to a 2016 agreement, the U.S. provides $3.8 billion in military assistance to Israel annually. This figure includes $3.3 billion in foreign military financing, under which the U.S. funds Israel's budget for purchasing U.S.-made weapons. The remaining $500 million is allocated for joint U.S.-Israel missile defense programs. Over the past decade, this funding has allowed the Israeli and U.S. governments to plan for the sale of American weapons and equipment in advance. As a result, none of these sales are planned for immediate delivery, and discussions about contracts have been ongoing for years between the parties. However, based on that agreement, the U.S. government is obligated to provide this military assistance to Israel. According to the U.S. State Department, as of October 2023, the U.S. has had 599 arms sale cases to Israel worth $23.8 billion. This means that these cases and amounts have been approved by the government and reported to Congress. Since the Hamas extremist group's attack, which the U.S. and the European Union consider a terrorist organization, on Israel on October 7, reports indicate that the Biden administration has approved over 100 such sales to Israel, most of which do not need to be reported to Congress due to not exceeding the designated dollar threshold. However, in cases that exceed the specified threshold, the U.S. government is required to inform Congress of the details and amounts, such as the $1 billion in new military assistance allocated to Israel that the White House informed Congress about on Tuesday, May 25. The Biden administration is also reportedly reviewing the sale of 50 F-15 fighter jets worth approximately $18 billion to Israel. In this context, the U.S. Congress last month, after months of deadlock, passed a bill to provide an additional $26.3 billion in support for Israel, which includes billions of dollars in weapons to strengthen Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. Finally, it is essential to note that although there may be a multi-year timeframe between the approval and finalization of these arms aid packages and their delivery to Israel, actions such as announcing the halt of the delivery of these munitions, like the 3,500 bombs, can indicate the White House's dissatisfaction with the current Israeli government's actions, even though by approving and confirming the shipment of other arms aid, the U.S. demonstrates its commitment to supporting one of its main allies. Additionally, the Biden administration or any other government in the U.S. cannot legally stop the shipment of arms to Israel, and this legal limitation should be considered in any analysis of relations between the two parties.