U.S. Response to Nuclear and Missile Rhetoric from the Islamic Republic: We Will Not Allow It

Following threatening remarks by Kamal Kharrazi, advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, about the possibility of a "change in nuclear doctrine" and the production of nuclear weapons in the event of an "existential threat" to the Islamic Republic, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department told Voice of America that Washington is committed to never allowing the Iranian government to acquire nuclear weapons. This spokesperson emphasized on Friday, November 11, that Washington is also prepared to use all its capabilities to ensure this. The U.S. official referred to President Joe Biden's explicit stance on this issue. He also highlighted Washington's deep concerns regarding Iran's nuclear activities and added that the U.S. will continue to closely monitor these activities. He stated that the U.S. intelligence community will continue its assessments to ensure that "the leader of the Islamic Republic has not decided to resume the nuclear weapons program, which Iran has suspended since 2003." The U.S. State Department spokesperson stressed that the United States takes any escalation of nuclear tension by the Islamic Republic "extremely seriously" and will respond appropriately. Amid escalating conflicts between Israel and the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups in the region, Kamal Kharrazi threatened on Friday, November 11, that the government would change its "nuclear doctrine" and increase the range of its ballistic missiles if faced with an "existential threat." In an interview with the Al-Mayadeen news network, Kharrazi claimed that the Islamic Republic possesses the technical capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons and that the fatwa of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, is the only reason the Iranian government refrains from producing nuclear weapons. He added that nonetheless, the Islamic Republic has the option to change its "nuclear doctrine" on the table in the event of an "existential threat." The Islamic Republic has consistently claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, several Western countries, including the U.S., do not consider the continued installation of advanced centrifuges and the accumulation of highly enriched uranium by the Islamic Republic to have a credible peaceful purpose. Kharrazi also mentioned the possibility of increasing the range of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missiles. These threatening remarks by Kharrazi come at a time when analysts say recent efforts by the Islamic Republic to create deterrence through direct attacks on Israel have largely failed, making the Iranian government more vulnerable to its main enemy. Reports indicate that recent retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on Islamic Republic positions in Iran have destroyed all of the country's S-300 missile defense systems. This Israeli action was a response to missile attacks by the Islamic Republic on Israel that occurred earlier this month. The Iranian government states that it is still assessing the damage caused by the Israeli attacks. Nicholas Heras from the New Lines Institute in Washington tells Voice of America that the airstrikes demonstrated that Israel has "qualitative military superiority in the war with Iran," which affects Iran's deterrence strategy. He adds that by targeting advanced S-300 air defense systems, Israel was able to penetrate Iran's air defenses and attack centers involved in the production of intercontinental ballistic missile components and the fuel for ballistic missiles, which are a significant part of the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy. According to Heras, Israel intended to send the message to the Islamic Republic that Iranians are far behind Israelis in terms of technology warfare. Nicole Grajowski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's nuclear program, writes in the online publication "Dewan" that "Iran's efforts to deter Israel through direct attacks have backfired, revealing cracks in its own defense system." This expert notes that recent Israeli attacks likely put the Islamic Republic in an even "more precarious" position than before. Thomas Newdick, writing in the publication "War Zone," agrees that the destruction of the Islamic Republic's S-300 systems paves the way for larger-scale direct attacks by Israel in the future. He adds that this serves as both a potential opportunity for Israel and a deterrent factor against the Islamic Republic's response. Newdick emphasizes that Israel certainly has various options in mind to take necessary actions in the event of a possible response from the Islamic Republic. Analysts believe that another factor in the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy has been the development of relations with Syria, as well as regional militia groups including in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has assassinated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah. Analysts state that while there are many ambiguities regarding the capabilities of these militia groups, this coalition known as the "Resistance Axis" has been severely weakened by Israeli attacks.