UK Elections, First Debate, and the Main Parties' Views on Iran

On Tuesday, June 5, the British witnessed a fiery and tense debate between the leaders of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party ahead of the country's general elections; a debate that covered a range of diverse topics from taxes and economic plans to immigration and the healthcare system. Post-debate polls showed that Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of the UK and leader of the Conservative Party, performed slightly better, although according to the same polls, Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, appeared to be 'more popular' and 'more trustworthy.' The Labour Party, which has led in most public polls by more than 20 percentage points, is likely to form the next government in the UK, seeking to end 14 years of Conservative rule; a tense period that saw five different prime ministers and the UK's exit from the European Union. In the British political system, when a party gains a parliamentary majority, its leader is commissioned by the king or queen to form a government. The general elections in the UK will be held on July 4, less than a week after the early presidential elections in Iran. If the outcome of the Iranian elections is not determined in the first round and none of the candidates receive more than 50% of the votes, according to the Islamic Republic's Ministry of Interior, the second round of elections will be held on July 15, just one day after the UK elections. What are the views of the two main UK parties on the Middle East and Iran? The Conservative Party has been one of the parties involved with Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program for the past 15 years, and former prime ministers from this party have defended the nuclear deal with Iran known as the JCPOA. Since the attack by the extremist group Hamas on Israel and the unprecedented missile and drone attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Israel in April, Rishi Sunak's government has taken a tougher stance on Iran. In recent months, the UK has imposed new sanctions on Iran due to its drone program and the supply of weapons to Russia in the Ukraine war, as well as its attacks on Israel. Additionally, alongside the US, the UK has conducted several airstrikes against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and is trying to restore shipping traffic in the Red Sea, which has been disrupted by Houthi attacks. However, some of Keir Starmer's positions on the Middle East have not significantly changed during his political career compared to Jeremy Corbyn, the former leftist leader of the Labour Party. Starmer, as a human rights lawyer, opposed the US and UK invasion of Iraq in 2003. After he became the leader of the Labour Party, he promised to prevent military interventionist actions and to make human rights the centerpiece of foreign policy. During the Saudi-led coalition's war with the Houthis in Yemen, he supported a ban on arms sales to Saudi Arabia for human rights reasons. When the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, with a missile strike in 2019 during Donald Trump's presidency, Keir Starmer condemned the action and stated that the world should 'engage with Iran, not isolate it.' However, after Iran's attack on Israel in April this year, he issued a statement condemning the attack as 'unacceptable' and emphasized his and the Labour Party's commitment to Israel's security. The Labour Party's transformation under Keir Starmer The current leader of the Labour Party replaced Jeremy Corbyn in 2020. He is from the moderate wing of the Labour Party and has a background as a human rights lawyer and chief prosecutor. He introduces himself as the son of a 'toolmaker,' thus reminding his supporters of his working-class roots. Mr. Starmer stated in a campaign speech this week that 'the focus of policy should be service' and has repeatedly used the slogan 'country first, then party.' He managed to oust Jeremy Corbyn from leadership amid internal party rebellion and has tried to steer the Labour Party towards moderation over the past four years, aiming to erase the perception of the party as 'anti-Semitic' during Corbyn's era, which was one of the reasons for the party's failures in several elections. However, leftists and rightists within the Labour Party also criticize him and question his leadership. Despite these criticisms, the latest polls indicate that the Labour Party could achieve a significant majority in next month's elections, potentially larger than Tony Blair's victory in 1997, while the Conservative Party may face its worst defeat in a century. Early UK elections; who will be the next Prime Minister? Economic problems and unfulfilled Conservative promises But how did the Conservative Party, which has been the absolute ruler of the UK for a decade and a half, experience this decline? Analysts say a combination of minor and major economic issues has arisen during the Conservative rule in the UK, and the public's patience has run out. Inflation, which reached a historic high of 11.1% 18 months ago, has eroded households' ability to spend. Although this rate has consistently decreased over the past nine months, insufficient income has been a primary concern for the British people for the past 15 years. On the other hand, the UK suffers from weak GDP, which has diminished the quality of life over the past 15 years. According to an assessment, the average income of the working population in the UK grew by over 40% during the twelve years ending in 2007. However, between 2007 and 2019, the average income increase in the UK was only 6%. Additionally, the value of the pound, the UK's national currency, has weakened by 14% over the past 14 years, and the Brexit referendum and Liz Truss's disastrous economic rescue plan worsened the situation. The depreciation of the pound also increased inflation, surpassing the inflation rates of the US and the EU, as it raised the prices of imported goods. While incomes have grown slowly, housing prices have skyrocketed, destroying the dream of homeownership for many British citizens. Rising rental costs are another issue for households in the UK. They now have to spend 29% of their income after taxes on rent, whereas this figure was 24% in 2010. In the recent debate, the Labour leader highlighted economic issues, stating that the Conservative government has 'lost control of the economy' and added that it is ordinary people who pay the price for this incompetence. In response, Rishi Sunak claimed that his plans have helped revive economic growth and that if the Labour Party comes to power, this progress would be at risk. The challenge of the UK's healthcare system While one of Rishi Sunak's promises to voters at the beginning of his tenure as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister was to shorten the waiting list for the National Health Service, the number of people waiting for non-emergency treatment has increased from 6.1 million in January 2023 to 6.3 million in March this year. Since some patients require multiple treatments, the number of missed appointments in March reached 7.5 million. This point led the Labour leader to mock Rishi Sunak during the debate. He pointed to the increasing number of patients waiting in the healthcare system and said, 'He (Sunak) says this number will go down. This is the same person who says his math is good.' Sunak responded, 'This number is going down from a previous higher figure,' which caused laughter among the debate audience in the TV studio. The UK's National Statistics Office announced in February 2023 that one-third of economically inactive individuals were waiting for treatment in the National Health Service. The immigration and refugee crisis Immigration has long been a significant political issue in the UK, and voters have expressed concerns that an influx of immigrants is putting pressure on housing, education, and the healthcare system. However, in 2023, the number of immigrants entering the UK was 685,000, which is lower than the record of 764,000 in 2022, but this decrease was mainly due to a reduction in the number of people entering from Hong Kong and Ukraine under humanitarian visa programs. Rishi Sunak's government attributed part of the high figure to the increase in the number of students and nursing staff along with family members and imposed restrictions on the entry of students' families, raising the minimum wage for skilled workers to obtain work visas by 48%. Sunak stated in the debate that the first flight of migrants to Rwanda would take place after the UK elections. On the other hand, there is the issue of refugees who illegally reach the UK by small boats from Europe, and Mr. Sunak intends to send them to the African country of Rwanda, but this plan has faced opposition from human rights organizations and resistance from the UK judiciary. In 2023, over 29,000 people arrived in the UK by small boats, which is less than the record of nearly 46,000 in 2022. In the current year, more than 10,000 refugees have already reached the UK. The UK spends over three billion pounds annually to process asylum applications, and the cost of accommodating these individuals in hotels and other places amounts to eight million pounds daily for the government. In the first debate, Sunak reiterated that if the European Court of Human Rights stands against his plan to send refugees, he would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, prioritizing 'national security.' In contrast, Starmer stated that a Labour government would not withdraw from international agreements and global laws because he wants the UK to be a respected player on the world stage.