UK Elections: Mrs. May Will Not Leave Number 10!

A note from Reza Taghizadeh -- The unexpected defeat of David Cameron's government in last year's UK referendum known as 'Brexit,' which led to his immediate resignation, had somewhat strengthened speculation about the possibility of a second electoral defeat for the Conservatives and the emergence of a third Prime Minister in less than a year in the days leading up to the vote. However, the specific parliamentary election method in the UK, which yields different results from referendums, has made the Conservative Party's regaining of the majority and Theresa May's return to Number 10 Downing Street almost unavoidable. The parliamentary democracy of the UK relies on two main parties, the Conservatives and Labour, which have alternately been responsible for forming the government since World War II. Before the emergence of the nationalist and independence-supporting party known as the 'Scottish National Party,' which effectively removed Labour from the political map of northern Britain by winning 54 parliamentary seats in the last general election and became the third largest party in the country, the Liberal Democrats were considered the third largest party in the UK. Given the composition of the eight major and minor parties participating in Thursday's election, the likelihood of Labour achieving a parliamentary majority and defeating the Conservatives is nearly impossible. What is not entirely clear but will become evident from the early hours of Friday is the size of the Conservative majority in the next parliament and the quality of reaching the goal that Mrs. May announced five weeks ago when she declared the unexpected parliamentary election. According to UK electoral regulations, the head of government can dissolve Parliament and hold elections for the next government at any time. If the House of Commons is not dissolved, the next parliamentary government, whose members are all elected from among the representatives of Parliament, will hold the executive power of the country for five years. After David Cameron's resignation from the premiership last year, and Mrs. May's appointment as leader of the Conservative Party and head of government, the new Prime Minister had an adequate parliamentary majority to continue the government's work for the next three years. The House of Commons has 650 seats, where the Conservative Party holds 330 seats, compared to 229 seats for the Labour Party, thus being in the majority. The most important issue of the day in the UK is the conditions for the country's exit from the European Union; negotiations that will take at least two to three years, if not longer, to conclude. The exit conditions from the Union must be put to a vote in the House of Commons after clarifying the terms of the agreement between the EU and the UK government. For this reason, the composition of the House with an appropriate majority at the time of the final vote for exiting the Union is significant. On the other hand, considering the typical five-year term of each parliament, the current government's term could end before the exit conditions from the EU are finalized, and the government could enter the next elections in a precarious situation. With these calculations, Mrs. May aimed to gain voter approval for her government, increase the Conservative parliamentary majority, extend the government's term from the remaining three years to five years, and strengthen her position in negotiations for exiting the European Union. The instabilities caused by the recent terrorist actions in Manchester and London, the release of statistics indicating rising inflation and a slowdown in the UK's economic growth rate, and the accusation of political opportunism against the Prime Minister were among the factors that had raised concerns within the Conservative Party regarding the election results in recent days. At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn's unexpectedly strong performance during the election campaign and in radio and television debates had significantly improved the Labour Party's standing in public opinion. Nevertheless, the latest public speculation indicates that the Conservative Party maintains its distance and superiority over the Labour Party. According to statistics released by the conservative and reputable 'Daily Telegraph' just before the voting began, the Conservative Party received 43.4% of the votes, the Labour Party 36%, and the Liberal Democrats 7.8%, ranking first, second, and fourth, respectively, while the Scottish National Party, with a lower national percentage and a higher local percentage, ranked third. Considering the certainty of the UK's exit from the EU, it can be strongly expected that 4.4% of supporters of the party in favor of the UK's exit from the EU will also vote for Conservative representatives in Thursday's election. Thus, Labour's victory over the Conservative Party, even for forming a coalition government, would require an event akin to a major political miracle. The expected defeat of the Labour Party in Thursday's elections would make Corbyn's continued leadership of the party significantly more difficult. In contrast, if Mrs. May achieves a larger parliamentary majority, she will see her success as complete, and even if her majority in Parliament decreases, she will be satisfied with the decision to hold early elections due to extending her government's term from three years to five years and being in a more stable position in negotiations with the EU.