UN Experts Warn of Humanitarian Crises in the Next Six Months

A group of United Nations experts tasked with predicting disasters and humanitarian crises warns that the situation in critical areas of the world, from Libya and Afghanistan to regions affected by the El Niño phenomenon, is likely to worsen in the next six months. According to Reuters, the experts issue an unprecedented warning that another coup may occur in Burundi, Islamists may advance in Afghanistan and Mali, and Ethiopia will lack the necessary food to combat severe drought. The United Nations is trying to mediate a final agreement between rival governments in Libya. The report warns that if these efforts fail, a deep rift is likely to emerge between the internationally recognized Libyan government and the military, creating conditions for a violent power takeover. The UN experts state: "In the absence of a legitimate government, a civil war is likely to erupt in Libya and escalate rapidly. Such an event would eliminate the chances of achieving a political compromise for a long time." According to the predictions, Nigeria and its neighboring countries will be unable to prevent massacres by Boko Haram, while their armies will continue to suppress, abuse, and violate human rights. The report notes: "Apart from Boko Haram, the armies of the region will continue to violate human rights, including extrajudicial killings, abductions, torture, and rape." The report also mentions that in Mali, there is insufficient peacekeeping force to defend government-controlled areas, and Islamists may advance. The situation in the Central African Republic is similar. There is insufficient funding for humanitarian aid worldwide, and in some cases, aid organizations and humanitarian agencies are attacked. One example is the U.S. airstrike on a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan. UN experts write: "As the attack on the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz clearly showed, delivering humanitarian aid to such organizations is becoming more difficult." In one of the few cases where the situation may improve, the experts predict that the Ukraine crisis will either decrease or remain at its current level. One reason for this is Russia's military intervention in Syria, which may lead Moscow to prefer a calm situation in Ukraine. The escalation of tensions and political risks addressed by UN experts will increase the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance by about 1.9 million. However, according to the report, the number of people needing assistance due to natural disasters, especially the El Niño phenomenon, will be much higher than this figure. It is predicted that approximately half a million people in the Horn of Africa will require food aid from the international community. Meanwhile, around 4 million people in the southern Pacific islands and several million others in other parts of Africa will face food shortages.