UN Forecasts Global Economy for 2024: 'We Are Still Not Out of the Danger Zone'

The United Nations has released its forecast for the global economy for the new Gregorian year, 2024, highlighting challenges stemming from escalating conflicts, slowing global trade, high interest rates, and increasing climate disasters, stating, 'We are still not out of the danger zone.' According to the Associated Press, the UN's report, published on Thursday, predicts that global economic growth will decrease from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024; while this is significantly beyond expectations, both figures remain below the 3% growth rate seen before the COVID pandemic in 2020. The UN's growth forecast is lower than those of the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The IMF stated last October that it expects global economic growth to decrease from 3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024. The OECD also predicted in November that global economic growth would decline from 2.9% to 2.7% in 2024. The director of the UN's Economic Analysis and Policy Division noted that the report avoids concerns about an economic recession in 2023, as the United States—being the world's largest economy—has managed to control high inflation without hindering economic growth. Shantanu Mukherjee, who spoke at a press conference during the release of the UN's new report, emphasized that, 'We are still not out of the danger zone.' He explained that the risk arises because the unstable situation in the world could reinforce inflation, and for instance, another shock in the supply chain or issues with fuel availability or distribution could lead to a renewed increase in interest rates, putting the situation out of control. According to the UN report, while the United States avoided a recession in 2023, concerns persist due to potential inflation stemming from global uncertainties. Global inflation is expected to decline, but over 25% of developing countries may experience inflation exceeding 10%.