Unanswered Questions Surrounding Iran's Hypothetical Two Nuclear Reactors

Tehran announces the start of construction on two new nuclear reactors in Bushehr while crude oil prices in global markets reach their lowest levels in the past 12 years. Investment in electricity generation from renewable sources (wind-solar and water) and nuclear options tends to increase when crude oil supply is less than demand and market prices are very high. The use of nuclear electricity, despite serious environmental considerations, has never been publicly discussed in Iran, either before or after the 1979 revolution, and public opinion on this matter has not been solicited. It is not surprising that regarding the construction of the two new nuclear reactors, which will cost at least $10 billion for infrastructure, construction, commissioning, and initial fuel supply, the public has only been informed through a brief news item about the government's decision. In Iran's neighborhood, Turkey has been negotiating with Russia for years about the construction of one or two nuclear reactors, insisting that Russia finance the construction and sell the produced electricity domestically with tax payments. Abu Dhabi is also executing the construction of four nuclear reactors with a capacity of 4,000 megawatts and a cost exceeding $20 billion after an international tender won by a consortium led by South Korea, with the first two units expected to be completed within the next 18 months. Iran's nuclear development programs began in 1957, and in the early 1970s, with a population of less than 30 million, Iran announced a plan to produce 23,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity. At that time, Iran's oil production was over five million barrels per day, which increased to six million barrels per day two years later. The Shah of Iran believed that oil is a finite resource and should be used for productive investment rather than daily fuel consumption. Nuclear electricity production at that time provided an opportunity to meet domestic demand as the population grew and to create more capacity for oil (and gas) exports. Iran's current population is about 80 million, and its electricity production capacity is around 70,000 megawatts. Over 96% of Iran's electricity generation resources are fossil fuels (gas; over 75%, and oil; 20%). Iran has practically been deprived of coal-fired electricity generation, with 3 to 5 percent of its electricity generation coming from hydropower (dams) and one percent from nuclear power. Compared to 40 years ago, Iran's population has nearly tripled, while its oil exports have decreased from five million barrels per day in the mid-1970s to one million barrels per day now. Currently, Iran has electricity exchange agreements with several neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan, making it a net electricity exporter, although the per capita export amount does not even reach one percent of Iran's electricity production capacity. Questions surrounding the new reactors include the lack of clear and precise information about their electricity production capacity, as the announcement of the construction of the two new reactors in Bushehr has only been reported by Iranian sources. The potential foreign observer and main executor of the project, if foreign, could only be Rosatom and Atomstroyexport of Russia, which previously completed and commissioned the Bushehr reactor. The current reactor in Bushehr is based on the design known as 'V-446', which, according to unofficial reports, is currently operating with an average capacity of up to 600 megawatts. After reaching an agreement with Iran to reconstruct reactor number one in Bushehr, and Siemens of Germany's refusal to cooperate with them, the model 'V-320' was considered for installation at the site of the destroyed Bushehr reactor. Gradually, due to technical problems and the need to adapt the design to Siemens' previous design, it was changed to the more advanced model 'V-446' with a nominal capacity of one thousand megawatts and a net production capacity of 915 megawatts. The timeline for the construction of the two new or hypothetical reactors for Iran, the management of their implementation, and fuel supply, as well as the fate of the nuclear waste that can be recycled and the plutonium produced that can be used for making nuclear bombs, has not been announced, at least to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency's safety regulations. The Russians are interested in completing and delivering nuclear reactor projects for their foreign customers, as they did with unit number one in Bushehr. They also insist that the fuel for their reactors be supplied independently as part of the main reactor construction contract, at least for 10 years. Regarding Iran, if it takes on an executive role in this hypothetical project, especially due to the sensitivity of the international community and the limitations of the JCPOA, as well as their criticism of the impurities in Iran's enriched uranium, Russia's insistence on fuel delivery and the return of nuclear waste will be more than usual. Currently, it is unclear what price Iran will pay for the construction of the two new reactors. The financial sources for the costs of these reactors have not yet been announced. Two years ago, the Iranian Oil Ministry announced its intention to deliver 500,000 barrels of oil daily to Russia in a barter trade. At that time, oil prices had not yet fallen below $100 per barrel, and the international market had the capacity to absorb this volume of oil. In the current situation, the implementation of the plan to deliver 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily to Russia is still unclear, as is the method of payment for at least $10 billion in announced costs for the construction of the two nuclear reactors. The plans from 40 years ago included a project to produce 23,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity, which was canceled during the Bakhtiar and Bazargan governments, and Iran's foreign contracts were violated. According to signed contracts with Siemens and Framatome of Germany, four nuclear reactors, each with a capacity of 1,283 megawatts, were to be built in Bushehr based on the model known as 'Biblis-B'. The construction of two of the four units began in 1975 after $3 billion was paid. The other two reactors were designed to be built in the Karun River basin and on the outskirts of Ahvaz (Dar Khoyin village). The contractor for this project was the French, and the production capacity of each reactor was projected to be 910 megawatts. The Dar Khoyin reactor contract was signed in 1977 for $2 billion, and construction was to begin in 1979. The machinery for the Dar Khoyin reactors remained in France after the contract was canceled by Iran and was subsequently used in that country as 'Gravelin-C' reactors, with two units reaching electricity production in 1985. In 1992, Iran negotiated with China to build two reactors with a capacity of 330 megawatts in Dar Khoyin. The Chinese had previously built similar reactors in their country named 'Qin Shan' and in Pakistan named 'Chashma', but later withdrew from pursuing this project in Iran under U.S. pressure. A few years ago, the Islamic Republic apparently resumed the Dar Khoyin reactor project without referencing its background and reducing the capacity of each to one-third, but this project has yet to move beyond the paper stage. Before the revolution, other plans for the construction of two nuclear reactors in Isfahan and two reactors in Saveh were developed, and their preliminary studies were completed, although non-heavy water nuclear reactors are usually built either next to the sea or near large rivers due to the need for a large amount of water as a cooling agent. The construction of the four mentioned reactors was planned for 1980 (one year after the revolution). Each of these reactors was to have a capacity of 1,300 megawatts, and their cooling system was 'dry cooling', so that for the first time in the world, using a method similar to the cooling towers of Yazd, towers 260 meters high were to be built to cool the nuclear furnace. In 2007, Iran issued a tender for the construction of two nuclear reactors with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, which were to come online in 2016, while apparently no credible bidders participated in that tender, and the project was archived. Finding answers to some of the questions raised in this article may help clarify the fate of Iran's new nuclear reactor.