US National Intelligence Director: We Continue to Witness Iran's Destructive Efforts

Dan Coats, the Director of the US National Intelligence Agency, stated at the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday, July 19, that Iran is a "bad actor" in the international arena. He also emphasized that Russia lacks the will and capability to counter Iran's actions in Syria. In response to a question from the program's host about whether the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, known as the JCPOA, and the reinstatement of sanctions have led to increased aggressive behavior from Iran, Coats said that the (withdrawal from the JCPOA) has not had a major impact on Iran's approach, but we continue to witness Iranian destructive efforts. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, announced his decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and reinstate sanctions on May 8. Following this decision, the Director of Policy Planning at the US State Department announced that a new round of severe sanctions against Iran would come into effect on August 4, with another phase starting on November 4, and efforts would be made to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. The Director of National Intelligence also added that we were previously told that with the nuclear agreement with Iran, the country's behavior would change, and we would have better relations with the Iranians, allowing for dialogue on various issues and joint efforts and cooperation. However, this did not happen after the nuclear agreement, and we witnessed Iran intensifying its actions in terms of supporting terrorist groups, engaging in destructive activities in the region, missile programs, intervention in Damascus, intervention in Yemen, and a wide range of other activities. The Director of National Intelligence stated that they are bad actors and continue to be so. The US, Europe, and several Arab countries have consistently expressed concern over Iran's actions in the region, particularly in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Iran has rejected the accusation of "supporting terrorism" in the region and described its presence in Syria as "advisory" and "at the invitation of the Bashar al-Assad government." Iran has also denied accusations regarding military support for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Regarding Russia and its confrontation with Iran in Syria, Coats referred to the sensitivity of the presence of Iranian forces in southwestern Syria and stated that several countries are present in this area, and a wrong assumption could spark an incident; it is a very sensitive point that we speak less about. He added that the situation in this area is a concern for the US because Israel has stated that it will not allow Iran's presence and influence near its borders and will take action. The Director of National Intelligence emphasized that in this very sensitive and critical part of the world, a wrong spark could create a major problem. Iran's presence in this region is a key element. The Syrian army and its allied forces have recently launched operations to reclaim border areas with Israel and Jordan. In response to a question about Russia's ability to expel Iran from Syria, Coats stated that based on assessments, it is unlikely that Russia has the will or capability to fully counter Iran's decisions and influence in Syria. For such an action, Russia would need to increase its economic and military commitments to Syria. Our assessment is that they do not seem willing to do so. Iran and Russia are considered the two main allies of the Syrian president, assisting Bashar al-Assad's army in gaining control over all of Syria during the country's civil war. Israel insists that Iran's military presence in Syria has become a "noose around Israel's neck" and "will not tolerate it." Multiple attacks in recent months on military bases in Syria, motivated by the presence of Iranian soldiers and their allies at these sites, have been attributed to Israel. Meanwhile, Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia's representative on Syrian affairs, confirmed on Monday that Iranian forces are not present in the ongoing operations in southern Syria. However, Lavrentiev stated that Iranian military advisors, like Russian military advisors, are present at the request of the Syrian government in specific units of the Syrian armed forces.