USA - Iran in 2025: The Year of the Return of 'Maximum Pressure'

Since taking office, Trump has maintained a firm and unequivocal stance towards the Islamic Republic. He has repeatedly emphasized: 'They must not, under any circumstances, acquire nuclear weapons!' Accordingly, the U.S. government revived and expanded extensive sanctions, military actions, and the 'maximum pressure' policy. The year 2025 became one of the most pivotal years in U.S.-Islamic Republic relations; a year in which Republican Donald Trump replaced Democrat Joe Biden in January upon returning to the White House. What followed was a year filled with negotiations, intensified sanctions, direct military action, and increased pressure on Tehran. Trump, from the very beginning of his second presidential term, sought to achieve a new agreement with the Islamic Republic. In a meeting on February 4 with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he stated that he did not want the situation in Iran to end in a 'catastrophic outcome' and was interested in reaching a 'big deal.' Despite reinstating the maximum pressure policy, the U.S. government did not completely block the path of diplomacy. In March, media reports indicated that Trump sent a letter to Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, through Emirati officials, setting a two-month deadline to reach a new agreement with Washington. Nuclear negotiations began in the spring but hit a deadlock as the Islamic Republic insisted on continuing uranium enrichment, a matter that the Trump administration and Israel stated they would not accept under any circumstances. The most significant and notable escalation of tensions occurred in June. Israel imposed sanctions on 0 entities, individuals, vessels, and aircraft related to the Islamic Republic. The Trump administration limited the purchase of luxury goods by Iranian officials in New York; the U.S. stated it prevented the regime from abusing 'diplomatic travels.' Extensive sanctions by the U.S. Treasury against the financial and logistical networks of the Houthis continued. The year 2025 became one of the most pivotal years in U.S.-Islamic Republic relations; a year filled with negotiations, intensified sanctions, direct military action, and increased pressure on Tehran. Trump, from the very beginning of his second presidential term, sought to achieve a new agreement with the Islamic Republic. In a meeting on February 4 with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he stated that he did not want the situation in Iran to end in a 'catastrophic outcome' and was interested in reaching a 'big deal.' Despite reinstating the maximum pressure policy, the U.S. government did not completely block the path of diplomacy. In March, media reports indicated that Trump sent a letter to Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, through Emirati officials, setting a two-month deadline to reach a new agreement with Washington. Nuclear negotiations began in the spring but hit a deadlock as the Islamic Republic insisted on continuing uranium enrichment, a matter that the Trump administration and Israel stated they would not accept under any circumstances. The most significant and notable escalation of tensions occurred in June. On June 13, Israel launched Operation 'Lion's Dawn,' targeting the Islamic Republic's nuclear and military facilities, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and several senior specialists of the controversial nuclear program. Trump stated that these attacks occurred one day after the end of a 60-day deadline he had given Tehran to reach an agreement. During this 12-day conflict, the United States assisted Israel by intercepting Islamic Republic drones and missiles. On June 22, the U.S. directly entered the conflict by executing 'Midnight Hammer' operations, using B-2 bombers and firing over 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles from an Ohio-class submarine, targeting the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic fired missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which, according to Washington, did not harm American forces. After the attacks on the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, Washington announced that Tehran was about two months away from building a nuclear weapon. During these conflicts, Trump briefly raised the issue of regime change but then stated that he was not pursuing such a goal and emphasized that he prevented Israel from targeting Ali Khamenei. On February 4, about two weeks after taking office, Trump officially revived the maximum pressure policy by signing an official memorandum, which served as a roadmap for the U.S. government regarding Iran. This document emphasized preventing the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles, neutralizing proxy forces, countering missile production, and reducing the Islamic Republic's oil exports to zero. It also specified completing the trigger mechanism and pursuing individuals associated with Tehran-backed terrorist groups. In August, Britain, France, and Germany, with U.S. support, activated the trigger mechanism based on the Islamic Republic's violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement and reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicating that the nuclear program exceeded civilian needs. This process concluded on September 27, and extensive United Nations sanctions were reimposed. Subsequently, European countries and Japan resumed their previous sanctions, and the U.S. Treasury announced that all UN members were obliged to implement these sanctions. After completing the trigger mechanism process, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the path of diplomacy remained open, but only under clear conditions, adding that the world would not tolerate threats and half-measures. In September, the U.S. expanded the scope of sanctions, targeting individuals and companies involved in transferring financial resources from Iranian oil smuggling, including entities based in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. Washington stated that these revenues benefited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamic Republic's Ministry of Defense. In October, the U.S. imposed extensive sanctions on the Islamic Republic's energy sector, sanctioning nearly 40 individuals, entities, and vessels involved in exports generating hundreds of millions of dollars for the regime. Sanctions continued in November, with the U.S. targeting Yazd Airways and over 50 entities, individuals, vessels, and aircraft related to it. In December, Washington announced sanctions on 29 tankers associated with what it called the Islamic Republic's 'ghost fleet.' Sources of tension remain. Abbas Araqchi, the Islamic Republic's foreign minister, stated in November that Tehran was not actively enriching uranium because its enrichment facilities had been targeted by U.S. attacks. However, the Islamic Republic's regime has not yet agreed to completely abandon its uranium enrichment program. Another factor of tension is Tehran's obstruction of efforts by UN nuclear watchdog inspectors to investigate targeted nuclear facilities. The exact fate of the Islamic Republic's enriched uranium reserves, estimated at about 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, remains unclear. Israel has previously stated that it will not allow the Islamic Republic to revive its nuclear and missile programs. Subsequent reports indicate that the Islamic Republic is attempting to reactivate its missile program, which was severely damaged during the 12-day war. In December, Donald Trump warned that if the Islamic Republic sought to revive its missile program without reaching an agreement, the United States could destroy it as quickly as it targeted the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. In the same month, Washington increased pressure on Venezuela, an ally of the Islamic Republic, including seizing a tanker involved in violating sanctions. This year ended with the Iranian national currency severely devalued, with the U.S. dollar nearing 1 million and 400 thousand rials; a clear indication of the economic impact of the return of the maximum pressure policy.