Vatan Khah: The Relationship Between Iran and Russia is Tactical, Not Strategic

Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, recently traveled to three countries: Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. During his visit to Egypt, he signed a $21 billion contract for the construction of a nuclear power plant with the country. Moscow and Cairo also agreed to resume passenger flights that had previously been halted due to the crash of a Russian passenger plane in the Sinai Peninsula. In Putin's visit to Turkey, both sides emphasized further military, political, and economic cooperation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also announced the finalization of a contract for the purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Relations between Turkey and Syria soured in 2015 following the downing of a Russian bomber by the Turkish military. Putin also made an unexpected visit to Syria to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia has played a significant role in suppressing Assad's opponents over the past two years. Iran and Russia have had extensive military and political interactions in recent years, ranging from billion-dollar arms contracts and Russia's involvement in constructing two new nuclear reactors in Bushehr to the delivery of the S-300 air defense system. The cooperation between the two countries was not limited to these contracts. During the Syrian crisis, Iran's military cooperation with Syria reached a point where the Islamic Republic allowed Russian fighter jets to use the Nojeh Air Base to bomb Assad's opponents. Russian missiles were also permitted to be launched towards Syria after passing through Iranian airspace. At first glance, it seems that Russia intends to play a more prominent role in the Middle East in the future. However, what is the status of Russia's presence and influence in the Middle East, and will Russia be able to maintain this influence in the long term? Alex Vatan Khah, an analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that Russia has only taken advantage of a vacuum created for leadership in the Middle East in recent years. According to Vatan Khah, 'The mistakes of the United States have opened the doors of the Middle East to Russia. However, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to continue this role in the long term.' On the other hand, it seems that the relationship between Iran and Russia, despite all the treaties and agreements between the two countries, is merely a tactical relationship rather than a strategic one. Moreover, the historical memory of Iranians regarding the former Soviet Union is not positive. When a country acts in this manner, it is forced to seek a power on the international stage that, for example, will not vote against it in the United Nations. Russia and China play such a role for Iran. This weakness and neglect of the Islamic Republic towards the national interests of the country and their ideological perspective on foreign policy issues have weakened Iran. Alex Vatan Khah confirms this point, stating, 'Iran has always been weakened by the Soviet Union. Even Ayatollah Khomeini, after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, tried not to get close to the Soviet Union, but the new generation and even the first generation of the revolution, like Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC, have tied their hands in the international political arena with their political maneuvering. Because the Western world has sidelined them and fears them. The United States also has no intention of getting close to Iran. This is due to the ideological issues, statements, and goals that the Islamic Republic pursues.' According to Vatan Khah, 'When a country acts in this manner, it is forced to seek a power on the international stage that, for example, will not vote against it in the United Nations. Russia and China play such a role for Iran. This weakness and neglect of the Islamic Republic towards the national interests of the country and their ideological perspective on foreign policy issues have weakened Iran.' This Middle East analyst believes that 'for Russia, it does not matter whether you are Shia or Sunni, communist or ... This country is pursuing its national interests. Putin speaks of Christianity in Russia and gifts a 500-year-old Quran to Mr. Khamenei.' Russia and Iran also had close cooperation during the Syrian crisis, but if this crisis ends, will they be able to continue their cooperation in Syria? It seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran is concerned about being sidelined by Russia. How valid is this concern? Vatan Khah states that this concern exists for Iran, adding, 'When General Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, reminds Russia that if our popular groups were not in Syria, victory would not have been achieved, it indicates the Islamic Republic's concern about these groups being sidelined by Russia. Iran is suspicious of Russia. Assad is also suspicious of Iran. Let us not forget that Syria is a secular and anti-religion country and is therefore closer to Russia than Iran.' But how far will Russia's presence and influence in Syria extend? Despite Putin's order for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, it seems that Russia does not intend to end its military presence in Syria. Putin has announced that Russia intends to maintain its naval base in Tartus in southwestern Syria and its airbase in Hmeimim in Latakia province. According to Vatan Khah, this issue relates to Russia's strategic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Vatan Khah adds, 'From Russia's perspective, if you want to safeguard your interests in the Black Sea, you must have a presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Assad has also opened the door for them.' On the other hand, with the end of the Syrian crisis, this country needs to revive its economy, and this will be a suitable opportunity for Russia to continue its influence in this country by playing a role in Syria's reconstruction. However, given Russia's dependence on oil and gas exports, it seems unlikely that Russia will be able to play such a role in the long term. Although Russia has relations with almost all Middle Eastern countries, from Iran, Turkey, and Egypt to Israel and Saudi Arabia, how long can Russia remain alongside countries with conflicting interests while simultaneously playing the role of an ally for these countries? Do Middle Eastern countries view Russia as a strategic ally or as a country that may change its positions to their detriment based on its own interests? Vatan Khah compares Iran and Russia in this regard and states, 'What Russia has that the Islamic Republic of Iran lacks is that Russia can negotiate with everyone. From Israel to Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and even the Syrian Kurds. This is a beautiful game that Russia plays and Iran is unable to do so. Even the United States cannot act in this way. The United States does things that weaken its own hand. The relocation of the capital to Jerusalem was a major blunder for the United States. Let us not forget that Putin comes from a generation that is still upset about how the Cold War ended and has a sense of vengeance in his mind.'