Victory of Rouhani from Seven Angles

After a polarized competition between two distinct political-ideological camps, Hassan Rouhani became the twelfth President of Iran. Judging the results of this event may require patience beyond the four years of Rouhani's second term. Rouhani's success can be contemplated from various angles. The following seven points illustrate this. 1. Success of a Broad Coalition A strange and significant consensus formed behind Rouhani and the necessity of his government several weeks, if not months, before the election. This coalition increasingly expanded as the election date approached, meaning that various sections of the reformist camp joined forces with moderates; layers of reformists (including civil society activists and sympathizers with the Green Movement and its imprisoned leaders) were added to the two groups; and some moderate and pragmatic conservatives (of which Natiq Nouri and Ali Larijani are two prominent figures) also stood alongside Rouhani and effectively became part of this coalition. The result of this coalition was the increasing empowerment of a political-electoral surge that thwarted the rival camp. However, this coalition was not solely political; the number of citizens who preferred the fundamental orientations of Rouhani's government in the areas of economy, national management, and cultural development was significant. 2. A Defeat Beyond Elections for Principlists The result of the May 29 election was not pleasant for the principlist camp; however, it can be confidently stated that the repercussions and damages resulting from the election campaign and competition will affect the principlists beyond a temporary political contest. One aspect of this claim relates to a famous singer (Tataloo); where principlists supporting Raisi showed that they were willing to set aside 'principles' to gain more votes. Raisi's campaign disregarded its ideology to garner more votes and promoted Tataloo as a campaign opportunity. The very negative reflection of Raisi's meeting with Tataloo will not leave the principlists' cloak for the foreseeable future. They must answer questions such as, 'Do they consider it permissible to rely on any means to achieve their goals?' On another level, the attempts of the two main principlist candidates to present themselves as 'non-partisan,' Qalibaf's actions in the debates (which he described as 'revelations'), and Mir-Salim's disregard for the party's recommendation and statement about withdrawing in favor of Raisi were other manifestations of the principlist camp's problems; meaningful signs of a functional and ideological crisis among the principlists. 3. A Moral Victory for the Majority of Society The majority of citizens who mobilized in the election in favor of Rouhani and against Raisi were not only politically successful; a significant aspect of their success was their preemptive action against Raisi (one of the perpetrators of the mass execution of opponents in the summer of 1988). The victory of someone who, according to Ayatollah Montazeri, was complicit in a 'crime,' was considered a moral defeat for Iranians. However, the presidential election results showed how determined the majority of Iranians were to say 'no' to Raisi. Of course, this does not mean that all citizens who voted for Rouhani were aware of Raisi's involvement in the 1988 massacre; nor does this observation claim that all citizens who voted for Raisi were aware of his role in the 'historical crime.' However, the election outcome and the average 'reaction' of the majority of voters carried hopeful signs of the importance of 'human' and moral values in today's Iran. 4. An End to a Leadership Option The defeat of Ebrahim Raisi in the elections, and beyond that, the role he played in the electoral competition, likely marked the end of a significant leadership option in the Islamic Republic. Raisi, as one of the notable candidates for the top position in the system, was subjected to criticism, attack, and even ridicule by opponents during the electoral competition and campaign. This manner of confrontation intensified after Raisi's meeting with the famous underground rapper. The security-military and ideological forces that supported Raisi will find it difficult to reconstruct his image. Raisi's political record and his advertising methods (including taking photos with the poor, campaigning with the resources of Astan Quds, and contradictory statements about his candidacy and election program) sparked a storm of questions and criticisms against him; a situation that likely sidelined Raisi from the list of main candidates for the third leadership of the Islamic Republic. 5. Rouhani and the List of Promises Rouhani has become president for the second time while his rhetoric, slogans, and campaign promises differ significantly from his first term's election campaign and promises. From changing Khatami's situation and the leaders of the Green Movement to improving the state of the press and online social networks, and from significant cultural changes to reforming the outputs and approaches of security and judicial institutions and realizing the Charter of Citizens' Rights, were addressed in his sharp, engaging, and clear speeches. Fulfilling these promises, which were mainly raised in the areas of political and cultural development, will not be easy; especially since Rouhani must simultaneously and perhaps urgently address economic problems, production stagnation, and unemployment crises. Meanwhile, a significant minority has crystallized itself with 16 million votes for Raisi; it seems unlikely that the political-security leaders of this minority will refrain from obstructing and disrupting the realization of Rouhani's promises. On another level, Rouhani, whose sharp and clear campaign speeches even provoked a reaction from the top of the political system, must strive to gain the cooperation of the system's first authority with his policies; an interaction that is not easy to advance. If Rouhani can benefit from the considerable support of the majority of voters, and if he can maintain this emerging social force— which succeeded against the radical right and hardline principlists— in the political developments and alongside him, then he will increase his chances of success in his programs and fulfilling his promises. This important task will not be possible without the continued active presence of Rouhani's supporters and their demanding activism. 6. A Meaningful 'No' to Populism Rouhani's victory in the elections occurred while his two main rival candidates (Raisi and Qalibaf) both proposed loud and attractive promises in the area of increasing subsidies and assistance to the unemployed and the poor and underprivileged social layers. The meaningful 'no' from the majority of society to the economic promises and populist slogans of Raisi—and even Qalibaf, who withdrew in his favor—holds undeniable significance in today's economic and social conditions in Iran. In other words, the majority of the Iranian people preferred their medium- and long-term interests over short-term benefits. Regardless of what the reasons for such an important occurrence were— which can confidently include the effective role of online social networks in informing and raising awareness— the noteworthy point is the confidence of most unemployed and socially pressured layers in Rouhani's government programs and measures for the next four years; despite all the affirmative and negative propaganda from Rouhani's opponents using the media at their disposal, especially state television. How much Rouhani can respond to this 'trust' is an important question that requires a four-year patience to answer. 7. An Election Beyond Political and Economic Conflict The result of the presidential election was beyond the struggle between two political camps (reformism and principlism, or democracy-seeking and authoritarianism). Rouhani's victory was also not simply a success of one economic program over another. Furthermore, Rouhani's supporters did not solely belong to the urban middle-class camp. Both among Rouhani's supporters and Raisi's followers, there were representatives from both the middle class and underprivileged layers. On both sides of the electoral bipolarity, economically disadvantaged social layers were also noticeable. From this angle, Rouhani's victory cannot be evaluated solely from a political or economic perspective. There were many underprivileged citizens in villages or urban peripheries, or even among the urban unemployed, who voted for Rouhani. From the aforementioned perspective, the majority of the Iranian people voted for a 'bias' and 'perspective' that differed from the opposing pole. Rationality, prudence, and moderation in managing the country, respect for political and cultural development, and efforts for interaction and relations with global and regional powers were the main headings and keywords of this bias and perspective; which manifested itself in the overall vote for Rouhani.