Victory of the Iraqi Army in Baiji

The Iraqi army has achieved a strategic victory 200 kilometers north of Baghdad. According to reports from various sources in Iraq, in Anbar province, the Americans are quietly forming an American-Sunni axis against ISIS with the tacit approval of the Baghdad government at the Ain al-Asad and Habbaniyah airbases. In southern Baghdad, the army, Karbala police, and Shia militias have launched an attack against ISIS in western Karbala. 1- Recapturing Baiji: On Friday, the city of Baiji was liberated from ISIS control in a joint operation by the Iraqi army and Shia militias. The significance of this victory lies in three key points; first, it removes the besieged Baiji refinery, located north of the city, from ISIS's siege (some international news agencies incorrectly report that the refinery was under ISIS control, whereas it was actually besieged, and neither the army nor ISIS had full control over the components of this refinery city). The Baiji refinery holds logistical importance for both sides. If under the control of the Iraqi army, it can return to the fuel production cycle for the country and the Abadi government, and if under ISIS control, it can provide part of the fuel needed by ISIS and serve as a revenue source for the group. The second significance of the Iraqi army's capture of Baiji is the severing of ISIS's supply lines along the Tikrit-Mosul axis. ISIS currently controls Tikrit to the south of Baiji (150 kilometers north of Baghdad) and Mosul to the north of Baiji (396 kilometers north of the capital). Will the Iraqi army use Baiji as a base for preparing and logistics for the liberation of Mosul? The answer to this question could be positive, but not at this time. It does not seem that the timing for such an operation will be soon. American commanders also state that the liberation of Mosul is not possible in the near future, and currently, there are not enough trained and equipped forces for such an attack. The third significance of the Iraqi army controlling Baiji is the jeopardizing of the position of ISIS forces present in the Tikrit axis. These forces will now lose their road connection to Mosul. However, the area is desert and plain, and ISIS's pickup trucks, which form the backbone of the group's motorized units, can easily move from desert areas to Mosul, which is 200 kilometers north of Tikrit, and western Tikrit is connected to the deserts of northern and western Iraq, which are under ISIS control. Nevertheless, if the Iraqi army consolidates its control over Baiji, it will be more difficult for ISIS to maintain its positions in the southern front of Tikrit than before. (Map number one) However, will the capture of Baiji create a strategic change in the developments in Iraq? It is still too early to answer this question positively. ISIS still dominates Mosul and Tikrit, the capitals of Nineveh and Salah al-Din provinces, and also controls significant parts of Anbar province. However, it seems that ISIS, having spent more energy than expected in Kobani and some other fronts in Syria, is no longer capable of threatening Baghdad as it was a month ago, and its range of attacks and advances in Anbar province has diminished. Although ISIS still has the opportunity to consolidate its controlled areas in Anbar to reach the outskirts of Baghdad again. 2- Formation of the American-Sunni Tribal Axis in Anbar: It seems that both the Iraqi government and army and the Americans are seeking to exploit ISIS's temporary weakness to retake some areas of Anbar from this group. In this context, reports indicate that a military axis of Americans, Sunni tribes, and the Iraqi army is forming in Anbar. To support this operation, the Ain al-Asad airbase in the outskirts of Hit and Habbaniyah in the outskirts of Ramadi have been designated. Currently, American advisors are present at these two bases (mainly at Ain al-Asad) and are working to mobilize and organize Sunni tribes that do not trust the central government in Baghdad and work more comfortably with the Americans than with the Abadi government. It is said that in this plan, Ain al-Asad base will be the center for a chain operation to liberate western Anbar, including Hit, Qaim, Anah, and Rawah near the Syrian borders, while Habbaniyah base will serve as the operations headquarters for liberating eastern Anbar, including Fallujah and lifting the siege of Ramadi and Ameriyah Fallujah. (Map number two) 3- Formation of the Iran-Shia Militias-Iraqi Army Axis in Areas Surrounding Karbala: Before the U.S. attempts to form a joint operational axis with Sunni tribes and the Iraqi army in Anbar province, another operational axis has been formed with the support of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iraqi army, and Shia militias. This three-way military bloc, which has a history of two successful operational collaborations in breaking the siege of Amerli and operations before Muharram in Jurf al-Sakhr north of Karbala, has begun operations in a new axis in western Karbala (110 kilometers south of Baghdad) since Friday. The primary goal of this operation is to clear the surrounding areas of Karbala from ISIS presence. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense stated that on Friday in this axis, the 8th Division of the army, along with Karbala police and Shia militias and the Al-Bu Issa tribes, succeeded in clearing the areas around the large Razzazah lake in western Karbala. (Map number three) The primary goal of this operation may be to secure the surrounding areas of Karbala before the start of the million-strong Arbaeen ceremonies in Iraq. Especially since, unlike Iran, where Ashura and Tasua are peak mourning ceremonies for the third Shia Imam, in Iraq, the peak of this ceremony is Arbaeen, which is less than a month away, and according to existing tradition and custom in Iraq, hundreds of thousands of people, mostly walking, head towards Karbala. The secondary goal of this operation could be to advance towards Ameriyah Fallujah in the southwest of Baghdad, which is under constant pressure from ISIS attacks.