Vienna Speculations: Three Possible Scenarios for Negotiations

As we approach December 3rd, the deadline for Iran and the 5+1 to reach a comprehensive and final agreement, following the news and understanding what is happening behind closed doors at the historic Coburg Hotel in Vienna becomes increasingly difficult. Journalists have not even managed to see the faces of some negotiators. Dozens of Iranian and international media personnel who have come to this city must sit in a tent overlooking the Coburg Hotel, a tent that, although only a few steps away from the hotel, has no windows to the outside. There is also no news of official statements. Some Iranian officials occasionally answer questions from domestic journalists outside the Coburg, responses that mostly end with which countries have met with each other. Michael Mann, the former spokesperson for Catherine Ashton, the chief negotiator of the 5+1 group, who spent Tuesday in Vienna, has returned to Brussels, meaning that currently, the 5+1 group has no official spokesperson in Vienna; thus, negotiations continue in relative silence. In this atmosphere, various analysts enter the scene. Analysts who have greater access to behind-the-scenes news of the nuclear negotiations and have meetings with negotiators. In recent weeks, especially since the final round of nuclear negotiations began in Vienna, the analyses of these individuals may be the only available help for a better understanding of the situation ahead. Comments in Vienna regarding the outlook of the negotiations can perhaps be summarized in three scenarios: The first scenario suggests that with only five days left until the deadline, analysts believe that Iran and the six world powers still have the opportunity to reach an agreement. Some of these experts believe that negotiators have made significant progress over the past year. Additionally, Iran and the 5+1 have multiple solutions for Iran's confidence-building measures in its nuclear program on one side, and the reciprocal actions of the six countries on the other. Among these issues are the continuation of uranium enrichment in Iran up to five percent, the non-installation of more advanced centrifuges during the agreement, and changes in the Arak heavy water facility to produce less plutonium. The recent agreement between Iran and Russia for nuclear cooperation has also been added to this list. With this description, those who believe in achieving a comprehensive and final agreement argue that Iran and the 5+1 will reach an agreement similar to the Geneva Agreement (the name of this agreement will be the Comprehensive Joint Action Document), and after that, they will work for several weeks or months on the agreed topics and their technical aspects. The second scenario indicates that Iran and the 5+1 do not have enough time to reach an agreement. The British Foreign Secretary is among those who acknowledged this scenario on Wednesday evening, stating that the negotiations are likely to be extended. Although negotiators in Vienna have not yet confirmed this and say that the subject of negotiations in the Coburg rooms is not an extension. In this scenario, Iran and the 5+1 will not reach a comprehensive and final agreement by December 3rd. However, they will likely take reciprocal incentivizing actions to continue negotiations after December 3rd. This scenario will have its own problems; among them are: the U.S. Congress will begin its session in January with a Republican majority that is inclined to impose more sanctions against Iran. Some negotiators, including Catherine Ashton, William Burns, and Jake Sullivan, have had their terms end in these negotiations for some time and are still present in the negotiation room to reach a conclusion. Additionally, in Iran, especially observers of the country's economic situation believe that Hassan Rouhani's government needs a serious transformation in the status of international sanctions to fulfill its promises. Therefore, this second scenario will not be the best option for many negotiating parties. The third scenario is less discussed in Vienna. In this scenario, a comprehensive and final agreement will not be reached, and the failure of the negotiations will be announced. However, given the progress made, as well as the consequences of a failure in negotiations, the likelihood of this happening is much lower than the previous two scenarios; consequences such as increased sanctions against Iran, the unpreparedness of the European Union, China, and Russia to impose more sanctions against Iran, the expansion of Iran's nuclear program and the risk of militarization, and the unstable situation in the Middle East. Overall, each of these predictions can have its own subsets. The nuclear negotiations have been ongoing for over 12 years to assure the international community of the nature of Iran's nuclear program. At one point, the failure of the agreement between Iran and the three European countries was unexpected, and at another point, the achievement of an initial agreement between Iran and the 5+1 in Geneva was anticipated. Therefore, we must wait until November 24th, December 3rd, to see which of these scenarios will be closer to the outcome of these negotiations.