Voice of America Interview with Experts on Attack on Islamic Republic Consulate; A Clear Message from Israel

Three foreign policy experts in the U.S. discussed with Kambiz Tavana, a reporter for the Persian section of Voice of America, the significance of the operation that led to the death of several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, viewing it as a display of Israel's power against the Islamic Republic and a strong message from Jerusalem to Tehran. Following the attack attributed to Israel on Monday against the Islamic Republic consulate in Damascus, several senior IRGC members, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, senior commander of the Quds Force (the IRGC branch in Syria and Lebanon), Hossein Aminollah, chief of staff of the Quds Force, and Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi, a close friend and deputy of Zahedi, were killed. Michael Pregent, a senior expert at the Hudson Institute, told Voice of America that the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi was 'a clear message from Israel to Tehran and also a clear message to Hezbollah (Lebanon), especially Hassan Nasrallah.' He noted that Zahedi was responsible for carrying out attacks in Syria and Lebanon, including against Israel, emphasizing that 'this was a clear message and a legitimate target, as the Islamic Republic uses the consulate as a command center for Quds Force operations and the IRGC.' Pregent believes that 'Nasrallah will wait for Tehran's opinion before reacting to this attack' and predicted that the response would be 'a limited attack, likely in northern Iraq,' similar to two previous attacks that resulted in the killing of Kurdish traders as Mossad forces in that region. He added that afterward, IRGC commanders would tell the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic that they sent a clear message to Israel and the U.S. and Israel's allies in northern Iraq. Regarding the potential U.S. response, given the friction between the U.S. government and Israel, he stated that U.S. intelligence and military agencies support such operations, but the Biden administration and the State Department may not endorse it. He pointed out that 'Israel is showing the U.S. that it is possible to eliminate the Quds Force commander who is planning terrorist operations.' This senior Hudson Institute expert expressed hope that behind the scenes, the U.S. government had given its green light for this attack, saying: 'They may come out and publicly say we do not agree with it, but this attack was good for Israel and the U.S. because Mohammad Reza Zahedi was responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon and the attack on U.S. facilities in Syria and was also responsible for the deaths of three Americans at the Jordan-Syria border.' Pregent opined about the possibility of Iranian proxy groups like the Houthis, militias in Iraq and Syria, and even Hezbollah in Lebanon being activated, stating that 'this attack was carried out by Israel, not the U.S.' and added: 'Any attack against the U.S. at this point would provoke a response. Therefore, I do not think the Islamic Republic would want to do such a thing against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria right now.' He also referenced the experience of the Islamic Republic's attack on the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq, which was a 'coordinated attack' that the Trump administration allowed the Islamic Republic to carry out to save face. Pregent also stated that 'the message Israel sent to Tehran was that we can target IRGC commanders even in your consulate, and if you continue to support Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, the next target will be inside Iran. Israel knows what the Trump administration was aware of, and the Biden administration is unaware of: that it is possible to target Qassem Soleimani and force the Islamic Republic to retreat, and it is possible to target Mohammad Reza Zahedi and compel Tehran to retreat.' The conflict between Iranian proxy forces and Israel has escalated. Eli Kohanim, a former U.S. State Department official, also told Voice of America: 'This attack is attributed to Israel, which shows that the conflict between Iranian proxy forces and Israel has intensified.' He noted that late Sunday night, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched a drone or air attack on a base in Eilat, southern Israel, adding that this attack 'demonstrates the escalation of conflict between Iranian proxies and Israel,' after which Israel carried out a retaliatory attack against an IRGC commander. Kohanim discussed the possibility of increased hostilities in the region by the Islamic Republic or its proxies, stating: 'What the Islamic Republic successfully does is activate the proxy forces to prevent any retaliatory attacks on Iranian soil, and it has been successful in this strategy.' This former U.S. State Department official referenced statements from former Israeli officials that it is time to strike at the head of the snake, adding that 'perhaps it is time for Israel and the West to end their responses to the proxies and focus their attacks on the regime and its targets.' Despite suggesting the potential for increased conflict in the region, he said: 'I do not think the Islamic Republic has yet been able to digest that Hamas, one of its main proxies, is being destroyed by the Israeli army. Hamas is on its last breaths, and Israel says only four brigades remain in Rafah.' Kohanim stated: 'It seems that Israel and the Biden administration have reached some understanding that Israel is expected to enter Rafah soon, and this week we saw the Biden administration announce that it would provide more weapons to Israel. Therefore, I think it is hard for the Islamic Republic to accept that one of its main proxies, which cost millions of dollars, is being destroyed by Israel. Hence, it would not be surprising if the regime activates its other proxies to hope to save Hamas.' He also discussed the U.S. response to this attack, referencing a Washington Post report on continued U.S. military support for Israel, emphasizing that 'the U.S. will not allow its support for Israel, its main ally in the Middle East, to be disrupted. I expect the Biden administration, despite some statements and criticisms regarding Israel, will not change its defensive stance.' A significant success for Israel. Jason Brodsky, senior policy director of the United Against a Nuclear Iran, in an interview with Voice of America, emphasized the importance of this attack and the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, evaluating it as 'a major success for Israel' and stating: 'I expect the Islamic Republic to respond to this attack.' He added: 'The Islamic Republic will be under pressure to react; because not only did this attack eliminate Zahedi, but the site of the attack was also a diplomatic environment of the Islamic Republic, and this is the main point of distinction between this attack and other attacks that Israel has previously carried out against the Islamic Republic.' Brodsky noted: 'Pressure will be placed on regime officials (of the Islamic Republic) to have some kind of retaliatory response that is more hostile than their previous reactions.' Regarding the U.S. position and the friction that has existed between the country and Israel in recent months, he opined: 'I do not think the U.S. wants to allow these frictions to prevent Israel's freedom to defend itself in Syria.' Jason Brodsky emphasized: 'The U.S. will keep its position ambiguous and allow upcoming events to speak for themselves. The U.S. Department of Defense should not rush to absolve responsibility for this attack, and if the U.S. keeps it ambiguous, it will benefit U.S. deterrence policy, especially since remember that Mohammad Reza Zahedi was on the U.S. government's special terrorism list. The U.S. should allow events to speak for themselves.' The senior policy director of United Against a Nuclear Iran discussed the possibility of a broader response from Iranian proxies in the region to Voice of America, stating: 'Given Zahedi's long-standing connection with Hezbollah, this group may be pressured to respond, as Zahedi had been stationed in Beirut for a long time and had his networks and connections there.' He said: 'There will be calls for some kind of response from Hezbollah, but I doubt the Islamic Republic would want to expend all of Hezbollah's military capability over this issue right now. In my opinion, the Islamic Republic has kept Hezbollah for when it is attacked itself.'