Warning from Obama Administration Official About Withdrawal from JCPOA by Any Party

On Thursday, November 10, the spokesperson for the U.S. State Department confirmed in response to a reporter's question that there is no law preventing a party from withdrawing from the JCPOA, but at the same time warned that such an action would have "very serious consequences" for the cohesion of the nuclear agreement with Iran. According to Mark Toner, the spokesperson, the nuclear agreement between the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 group, known as the JCPOA, is "not a treaty that is legally binding." Mr. Toner, who emphasized that he is speaking about a "very hypothetical situation," stated that "any one" of the parties to the JCPOA could turn its back on it. He also stressed that if the United States withdraws its support for this agreement, there is a possibility that Iran could "begin a nuclear weapons program"; according to Mr. Toner, "this is the reality of the situation." Speculations about the continuation or violation of the JCPOA by the U.S. have escalated since the news of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. During his campaign, Mr. Trump repeatedly criticized Barack Obama for the JCPOA, calling it a "disaster" and "the worst deal in the world," and promised that if he became president, he would tear up the JCPOA on his first day in office. In response to Mr. Trump's remarks, Ali Khamenei warned that "we will not violate the JCPOA, but if the other side violates it, as the presidential candidates in the U.S. are threatening to tear it up; if they tear it up, we will burn it." Mark Toner emphasized that "we believe it is in everyone's interest, in the world's interest, for Iran and all parties to adhere to the agreement, as this way we can close Iran's path to nuclear weapons." The comments made on Thursday by the spokesperson for Barack Obama's State Department indicate that the direct and indirect concerns expressed by Iranian officials immediately after the news of Donald Trump's victory were justified. In the first official reaction from an Iranian official to Donald Trump's victory, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, reminded Mr. Trump on Wednesday, November 9, that the U.S. is "obligated to implement the JCPOA." President Hassan Rouhani also emphasized on the same day that "Iran's intelligence in the nuclear agreement was that it established the JCPOA not as an agreement with one country or one government, but as a UN Security Council resolution that cannot be changed by the decision of one government." This is a point that Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign policy chief, has also emphasized, a point that we will likely hear a lot from now on, and negotiators will frequently refer to it in discussions with Trump administration officials. According to Ms. Mogherini, the nuclear agreement with Iran is not a bilateral agreement between Tehran and Washington that Donald Trump, as President of the United States, can overturn. On Wednesday, November 9, Ms. Mogherini stated in an interview with Christiane Amanpour from CNN: "The agreement with Iran is not a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Iran; it is a multilateral agreement that was achieved through negotiation, and I personally have direct responsibility for it and I am currently the head of the joint commission that oversees its implementation to ensure compliance by all parties. This agreement is included in a UN Security Council resolution." The nuclear agreement between Iran and the 5+1 group was implemented in January 2016, and since then, the Islamic Republic has shut down a large number of its centrifuges in exchange for the lifting of a significant portion of international sanctions.