Warning from Senior U.S. Security Officials about the Collapse of Iraq and Syria

Senior security and intelligence officials in the United States, including the head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, say that Iraq and Syria are likely to fragment in the coming years due to ethnic and religious conflicts, potentially reshaping the Middle East. According to General Vincent Stewart, head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, at a meeting on September 10, Iraq and Syria may reach the brink of permanent collapse due to war and ethnic tensions. In both countries, the group known as the 'Islamic State' has taken control of large areas. Meanwhile, Syria is divided among rebel groups, extremists, Kurds, and the central government. In Iraq, the central government does not have control over all regions. General Stewart constantly wonders whether the Kurds of Iraq will return to the central government. Regarding Syria, he states, 'I can see a time in the future when Syria is divided into two or three parts.' The head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency says such a scenario is not the goal of the U.S., but the likelihood of it happening is increasing. John Brennan, head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), is another senior security official who spoke at the same meeting about the future of the Middle East and the possibilities ahead. He noted that despite the previous borders remaining in place in both countries, the central governments do not have full control over them, and the group known as the 'Islamic State' is located at the borders of both countries. Furthermore, Mr. Brennan stated that people in Iraq and Syria now identify more with their ethnic and religious identities than with their national identity. The CIA director believes that the Middle East will face changes in the next decade or two that will alter its shape significantly from what it is now. In Syria, the central government is largely composed of Alawites close to the Assad family. The civil war in that country, which began with the suppression of largely peaceful protests against the government, has now resulted in over 250,000 casualties and millions of displaced persons. In Iraq, the central government faced months of problems due to protests over the exclusion of non-Shiite groups, which ultimately led to the rise of Haider al-Abadi, the current Prime Minister, with the aim of including various groups in the core of power. Iranian officials, who are allies of the central governments in both Iraq and Syria, have emphasized the need to maintain their integrity and territorial integrity. According to the Associated Press, the official policy of the U.S. government is also focused on preserving the integrity of Iraq and Syria. For example, government officials have resisted requests for direct transfers of equipment to Iraqi Kurdish forces, insisting on transferring it through the central government in Baghdad. On the other hand, a U.S.-led coalition is conducting airstrikes against the self-proclaimed Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, where this group controls areas. The possibility of the fragmentation of Iraq and Syria and the hypothesis of the formation of Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish, and Alawite regions have previously been raised by some analysts.