What Are the Consequences of Pardoning Thousands of 'Prisoners' in Russia on the Condition of Fighting in Ukraine?

Thousands of convicted criminals, including hundreds convicted of theft, rape, and murder, have been pardoned by the President of Russia in exchange for participation in the war, and they are even praised as 'heroes of the special military operation.' Previously, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner private army, was recruiting new forces among convicts, but after his death and the dissolution of the core of this group, the recruitment of prisoners is now the responsibility of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin spokesman has repeatedly defended the pardon and release of heavy crime convicts, including individuals known for controversial 'murderer' cases, claiming that these individuals have 'paid for their sins with their blood' by participating on the fronts against Ukraine. However, various reports indicate that many of them re-offend after returning from the battlefields; even soldiers who had no criminal record before being sent to war but committed violence, especially against civilians or sexual assault in Ukraine, often struggle with psychological disorders upon returning home and commit serious crimes. The troubles of forced recruitment in Ukraine and Russia Although access to official statistics in Russia is blocked, available data indicates that domestic violence, murder, and sexual assault, including against children and adolescents, have peaked in Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine during this 841-day war. Sexual assault as a 'weapon' According to a report compiled by a non-profit organization in Poland titled 'Sexual Assault, a Weapon of Russian Soldiers in Ukraine,' instances of sexual assault by Russian soldiers in the occupied territories of Ukraine date back to 2014, when Moscow even denied its military presence in Ukraine. The mentioned report details cases of sexual assault against 68 women aged 12 to 83. According to Dmytro Lubinets, a human rights defender in the Ukrainian parliament, 292 cases of sexual assault have been recorded in the occupied territories of Ukraine from the beginning of Russia's large-scale military invasion in March 2022 until late May of this year. He described this statistic as merely 'the tip of the iceberg.' According to Monika Andruszewska, head of the 'Center for Recording Russian Military Crimes in Ukraine' based in Berlin, Russian soldiers are 'systematically' committing torture, sexual assault, murder, and extrajudicial executions in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Andruszewska considers these crimes to stem from a 'coordinated policy aimed at the destruction of Ukrainians,' which has led high-ranking Russian officials to not 'prevent' them. Russian soldiers have repeatedly been accused of committing war crimes in Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine and its Western allies are preparing to hold a special tribunal similar to the one held at the end of World War II to prosecute Nazi German leaders in Nuremberg. The funeral ceremony of a Ukrainian soldier who was killed in the Donetsk region At the same time, the International Criminal Court in The Hague has also been recording instances of war crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine and has so far issued arrest warrants against four high-ranking Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin. According to official statistics from the past two years reviewed by several independent publications, the rate of domestic violence in Russia has doubled compared to the year before the war against Ukraine, and serious crimes have increased by 45%. This data shows that so far more than 100 murders have been committed by individuals who returned to Russia after the war in Ukraine; cases of sexual assault have also increased sixfold, with half of the victims being children and adolescents. Some experts believe that war propaganda, which has now been institutionalized in kindergartens and schools in Russia, as well as psychological disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are among the main reasons for the increase in violence in Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized that individuals pardoned by the President of Russia will be sent back to prison if they commit a new crime. The independent media 'Mojahem Obiasnit' has reported based on information available in the Russian Supreme Court that there has been a 10% increase in the prosecution of defendants in sexual cases; 61% of these cases relate to sexual assault against children and youth, which is at least 25% more than in 2021, the last year before the war. On the other hand, various reports indicate that many instances of violence and sexual assaults remain unaddressed in court due to the 'special' conditions of the defendants. The Russian publication 'Vorstka' has reported that at least 10 girls aged 7 to 14 have been victims of assaults by soldiers returning from the war. The defendants in this case include Andrei Frolov, Ivan Kalinin, Nikolai Nechaev, Alexei Khelbenikov, and five others whose names have not yet been disclosed. According to this report, the court has withdrawn from reviewing the aforementioned case because the defendants are recognized as 'heroes of the special military operation.' These individuals had previously been sentenced to long prison terms for serious crimes but were later released from prison by order of Vladimir Putin and sent to the battlefields against Ukraine, returning to Russia after six months. Recruitment from among convicts 'cannibalism' In the past two years, about half of the presidential decrees in Russia have not been public. However, Putin confirmed in June 2023 that he signed a 'pardon decree' for convicts willing to fight against Ukraine. The publication 'Agnestva' has reported that at least 17 convicted murderers, whose cases had previously become controversial, have been released by the decree of the President of Russia. Sergei Haji-Kurbanov is among these individuals, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison for organizing the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, a prominent journalist, as well as for kidnapping and torturing various individuals, but he did not even serve half of his sentence. Vladislav Kanyus also murdered his ex-girlfriend with over a hundred stab wounds in the summer of 2022 and was sentenced to 17 years in prison, but was pardoned after a few months in exchange for fighting in Ukraine. His release caused a stir in Kremlin-affiliated media. It is unclear how many convicted murderers have been released from prison by the President of Russia's pardon decree, but so far the names of four defendants who were prosecuted in 'cannibalism' cases have been published. These four were convicted of killing 12 individuals. According to statistics that calculate the number of prisoners per 100,000 population, Russia ranked third before the large-scale military invasion against Ukraine in 2022, with about half a million prisoners, following Turkey and Belarus. Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, Russia has not published official statistics on its number of prisoners. Independent sources estimate that about 200,000 prisoners have been sent to the fronts so far. On the other hand, since 2023, the number of prisoners willing to go to the front in exchange for freedom has significantly decreased, as it has become clear that Russian soldiers use former prisoners as human shields, and most of them have been killed or disabled. Reports also indicate that while previously Russian prisoners registered to fight in Ukraine in exchange for promises of pardon and freedom, now receiving money is their main motivation for signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. It seems that the Russian authorities' withdrawal from continuing the pardoning of prisoners is due to the significant increase in domestic violence and other serious crimes with the return of soldiers from the front, which has become a serious social problem in Russia. Simultaneously, while the number of convicted serious criminals in Russian prisons has decreased, the number of political prisoners, who are opponents of Putin or protesters against the war in Ukraine, has significantly increased. The human rights organization Memorial documented the names of 348 political prisoners from 2009 to 2022; now the number of political prisoners on this list has exceeded 735.