What Challenges Does Ukraine Face on Its 'Irreversible' Path to NATO?

NATO members have unanimously emphasized that Ukraine is on an 'irreversible' path towards full membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. However, certain preconditions have been set for this goal, the most important of which is the cessation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. At the three-day NATO member meeting in Washington, which concluded on July 11, Western allies of Ukraine announced the delivery of more military supplies, including F-16 fighter jets, to the country. This year's summit reiterated Ukraine's 'irreversible' path to NATO and introduced the term 'bridge to membership,' although the exact meaning of this term remains unclear. Membership in NATO has been a contentious issue in Ukraine for years, but following Russia's annexation of Crimea and especially on the eve of Russia's extensive military invasion of Ukraine, the majority of society began to insist on the country's membership in NATO. In the fall of 2022, Ukraine officially applied for membership in the alliance. At last year's NATO summit in Vilnius, it was announced that Ukraine was exempt from taking certain steps that were previously mandatory for NATO candidates. This exceptional situation was not unique to Kyiv, as Finland and Sweden, the latest NATO members, also went through similar stages. This year, U.S. President Joe Biden firmly stated among NATO allies at the Washington summit: 'Ukraine will succeed in stopping Putin.' Additionally, for the first time, all NATO allies labeled China as a decisive supporter of Russia in this war and called on that country, as well as Iran and North Korea, to cease their support for Russia in the conflict against Ukraine. Reports indicate that the U.S. and Germany are the main opponents of Ukraine's rapid acceptance into NATO. Nevertheless, all members of the alliance unanimously believe that Ukraine's membership in NATO is off the table until the end of the war against Russia. Some countries consider the ongoing 'financial corruption' in Ukraine as one of the main obstacles to the country's membership in NATO and the European Union. However, in the latest statement from the NATO summit in Washington, Kyiv's effective steps towards implementing necessary reforms were praised. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's Secretary-General, who is presiding over the summit for the last time, reminded that 'there is no specific timeline for Ukraine's membership in NATO, and the discussion is merely about preliminary steps.' According to the current NATO Secretary-General, it may take ten years or more to complete the process of Ukraine's acceptance into NATO. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, along with Jens Stoltenberg, held a press conference at the three-day NATO summit. Stoltenberg simultaneously emphasized that Ukraine must have clear security guarantees to counter Russia's hostile policies. He added: 'Membership in NATO and benefiting from Article 5 of the treaty, under which all members are committed to defend any of the member countries, is the best available security guarantee.' Ukraine, which had a large nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union, received promises from nuclear powers—primarily the U.S., Russia, and the UK—thirty years ago through the Budapest Memorandum that after disarming, these countries would never put Kyiv under political and economic pressure and would guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity and security against any threats and aggression. Ten years ago, when Russia sent unmarked soldiers to facilitate the occupation and annexation of Crimea, Ukraine accused Russia of violating its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum and called on the other signatories to react. Russia then became the target of Western sanctions, but the U.S. and its allies emphasized that under the Budapest Memorandum, there was no obligation for military defense of Ukraine. Since the beginning of Russia's extensive military invasion of Ukraine, while the prospect of Ukraine's NATO membership remains shrouded in ambiguity, Kyiv is striving to sign bilateral security agreements with its allies. Most of these agreements mainly involve commitments from Western countries to provide military assistance to Ukraine, differing from Kyiv's initial expectation that its allies would defend the country's security against any threats alongside Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, who is attending the NATO summit in Washington as a special guest, signed a security agreement with Luxembourg and Romania on the sidelines of this meeting. Thus, the total number of these bilateral agreements has reached 23. The G7, the European Union, and many EU member countries have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Russia has always considered Ukraine's membership in NATO as one of its red lines. On the eve of the extensive military invasion of Ukraine, Russia published drafts of documents it referred to as an agreement on security guarantees for Russia and NATO. In those documents, there was no mention of Russia's commitments, and only a long list of demands was made for the U.S. and NATO to reduce their influence in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Additionally, Russia demanded the restoration of Europe's security status to before 1997 and insisted that the U.S. and its allies recognize the territory of the former Soviet Union as Russia's 'backyard.' Ukraine and its Western allies have always viewed this Russian ultimatum as a pretext for Kremlin to initiate war. At the same time, many political thinkers and other influential international figures, especially those with leftist leanings, consider NATO as a key factor in the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine. Kremlin propaganda and its supporters hold NATO responsible for Russia's war against Ukraine. Moscow has declared Kyiv's renunciation of NATO membership as one of the key provisions of any future peace agreement.