What Consequences Will the New IAEA Resolution Against Iran's Nuclear Program Have?

Before the vote on the proposed resolution by Britain, France, and Germany in the Board of Governors, which calls on Iran to immediately cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, Iranian officials, as usual, threatened Western countries that they would respond if such a resolution was issued. This is the first time in 18 months that the Board of Governors has made such a decision regarding Iran. But what does the issuance of such a resolution mean, what are its consequences, and what will be the possible reaction of the Iranian government to such an action? France, Britain, and Germany say Iran's nuclear program has reached a warning level. Previous Resolutions in the Board of Governors After the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA, no resolution against Iran was issued in the Board of Governors of the IAEA until June 2022, when Western countries expressed their dissatisfaction with Iran's lack of cooperation with the Agency. The June 2022 resolution was put to a vote in the Board of Governors at the suggestion of the United States, Britain, Germany, and France and was approved. This resolution made three specific requests from Iran: full and immediate cooperation with the Agency; providing credible explanations about the discovery of uranium traces at undeclared sites; emphasizing the need to allow inspectors access to resolve existing ambiguities. In response, the Iranian government initially began installing advanced centrifuges at the Natanz site and also deactivated several monitoring cameras at nuclear facilities. The November 2022 resolution was the second resolution of the Board of Governors regarding Iran's nuclear program after the JCPOA. This time, the resolution was also approved at the suggestion of the United States and the European Troika, and the same three previous requests were made from Iran: immediate and full cooperation with the IAEA; providing credible explanations regarding the discovered uranium traces at undeclared nuclear sites; access to sites and inspectors for investigation. In response, the Iranian government undertook retaliatory actions, enriching uranium to 60% at the Fordow facility. They also replaced some of the first-generation centrifuges (IR1) with more advanced IR6 machines, significantly increasing production capacity. Additionally, Iranian officials began actions such as feeding gas to several centrifuges at the Natanz site. Apart from these resolutions, European countries have independently issued several statements, asking the Iranian government to improve its cooperation with the Agency and respond to questions and ambiguities surrounding its nuclear program. In response, Iran has reacted sharply to these positions, with perhaps the most significant being in September 2023, when Iranian officials decided to revoke the licenses of several experienced Agency inspectors and prevent them from entering the country to monitor Iran's nuclear program. Grossi on Iran: No progress has been made in resolving outstanding safeguards issues. After the issuance of two resolutions by the Board of Governors and several statements, Iranian officials and the Director-General of the IAEA reached agreements known as the March 2023 understanding. Based on this agreement, three key areas were emphasized between the parties: expanding interactions between Iran and the Agency within the framework of the comprehensive safeguards agreement; increased Iranian cooperation to respond to three locations mentioned by the Agency where uranium traces were found; Iran's voluntary acceptance to increase verification activities and allow more inspections by Agency inspectors. According to what Rafael Grossi stated on June 4 at the opening of the Board of Governors' seasonal meeting in Vienna, despite all ultimatums and agreements, the Islamic Republic of Iran has still not answered questions related to its nuclear program, and the Director-General of the Agency explicitly spoke of a deadlock in relations between the Agency and Tehran. Grossi's statements come as he met with Iranian officials in Isfahan last month, and both sides expressed hope that they could make progress on remaining disputes. However, reports from the Director-General and his comments indicate that disagreements, ambiguities, and previous questions remain unresolved. What will the new resolution include? Based on the draft published from the statement supported by the three European countries, the language of this resolution is similar to the previous two, and Iran will again be asked to immediately expand its cooperation with the Agency and allow inspectors of this international body to fulfill their duties of monitoring and inspecting Iran's nuclear activities. This resolution will also not set a deadline for Iran and will attempt to keep the space open for dialogue and resolution of issues through soft means. As a result, there will still be no news of sending Iran's case from the Board of Governors to the UN Security Council. However, given that in recent years, Iran's uranium enrichment has increased from the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA to about 60%, and all efforts to revive that agreement and reactivate restrictions on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program have failed, the next step may include more serious actions to send Iran's case to the Security Council, which will be postponed to future seasonal meetings of the Board of Governors. At the same time, in such a process where Iran's case goes from the Board of Governors to the Security Council, permanent members will have veto power, and given the significant tensions between Russia and China with the other three Western countries, it is expected that ultimately decisions to reactivate international sanctions against Iran will be vetoed by Beijing and Moscow. (This process is different from the trigger mechanism where there is no veto power.) As a result, simply put, the issuance of such a resolution will have no specific practical effect on Iran's nuclear program, although it will again pave the way for increased pressure on the Iranian government and further isolation of the country in the international arena. Two US Congress members urged the Biden administration to hold Iran accountable at the Agency meeting. What will be the reaction of Iranian officials? In recent days, Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened Western countries that they would respond "decisively" if a resolution were issued by the Board of Governors. In addition to Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Shamkhani, the political advisor to Ali Khamenei, has also stated that if such a resolution is passed, Iran will face a "serious and effective reaction." Iran's options may include further restricting the Agency's oversight, actions to expand nuclear industries through steps such as increasing the number of centrifuges, changing the generation of some of them, and feeding gas to the machines. A less likely action that could significantly escalate tensions would be decisions such as Iran's withdrawal from the NPT or the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; a decision that does not seem to be taken by Iranian officials at this stage, and it can be predicted that Tehran's possible response will be on a scale similar to previous cases of Board of Governors resolutions. However, even such an action could further escalate tensions between the parties and deepen the shadow of distrust between the Iranian government and Western powers, creating new obstacles in the path of confidential and direct back-channel negotiations between Tehran and Washington.